So as the variable for ‘undocumented’ (test positive confirmed cases) shifts based on increased testing, positivity rate, etc., is it appropriate to run a regression based on a curve over time as the variable changes in order to create a predictive model (polynominal)? Most models or assumptions regarding heard immunity I’ve seen seem to be linear.
Bad News Thread
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So as the variable for ‘undocumented’ (test positive confirmed cases) shifts based on increased testing, positivity rate, etc., is it appropriate to run a regression based on a curve over time as the variable changes in order to create a predictive model (polynominal)? Most models or assumptions regarding heard immunity I’ve seen seem to be linear.
you could do normal Runge-Kutta, but it gets wonky as you go further out in time and the projection gets further from the data. You’d also have to use smoothed data, since you don’t want a single weird day (Christmas?) throwing a monkey wrench into your highest order term.
I’ve been using a declining exponential model for any region that is post peak. Seems good so far. I tweak it a bit since increasing vaccinations increase the rate of decline.
I think it will start to be overly optimistic as numbers fall. People will start relaxing behavior, and the decline will be slower than I predict. No idea how to model that.
At the moment, still thinking late March for orange. Worse to the extent that we all hit the casinos and host dinner parties.
kickingandscreaming
PREMIER
One concern I have is that those in geographic areas with a lower "R" are getting the vaccine at a higher rate than those in areas with a higher "R". Models that assume vaccines are going into the "average" risk for a given group may end up being overly optimistic.
SCC started a walk in vaccine clinic in the middle of the bad zip codes. And some places are doing giant drive through clinics. So some hope for covering the hard hit areas.
Bad vaccine targeting does not hit the model too hard. The vaccine term is still a very small part of overall immunity, and will be the minor player well into summer. Also, hard hit areas are getting a smaller slice of the vaccine immunity, but they already have a larger slice of traditional immunity. If we tie our hands as we vaccinate, it shows up as a lower vax rate and higher cases. So the model is ok.
The people? Maybe not. All the special categories and phone trees just make it harder for people in high risk areas to get vaccinated. A simple system by age would be both fairer and more efficient.
Coming from the NY Times no less.....
kickingandscreaming
PREMIER
I was reading that this morning. All the good intentions in the world can't aren't greater than shots in the arm.Coming from the NY Times no less.....
Yeah. particularly since the data seems to show we are in a race against a 3rd wave.
kickingandscreaming
PREMIER
How f'ed up do values have to be that in the middle of a pandemic someone thinks it's a better idea to throw out vaccines than give it to someone that isn't vaccinated?
Glitterhater
SILVER ELITE
I was talking to a physician friend last night, he's actually in New York City, So he has seen a lot!
Anyway, he somewhat echoed the statement that this thing is never going away. That the only way to get it to where we can function on a regular level is with the vaccine- Then it's going to be looked at as the flu is looked at. He said in his opinion, we are always going to be looking over our shoulder with all these variants until the vaccine is widespread.
If I remember correctly, I think Grace was one of the ones saying this a few months ago? Pardon me if my memory is fuzzy.
Something I forgot to add: he said he's no more concerned about the UK variant than he is any other variant- meaning, they are all trouble for us.
Anyway, he somewhat echoed the statement that this thing is never going away. That the only way to get it to where we can function on a regular level is with the vaccine- Then it's going to be looked at as the flu is looked at. He said in his opinion, we are always going to be looking over our shoulder with all these variants until the vaccine is widespread.
If I remember correctly, I think Grace was one of the ones saying this a few months ago? Pardon me if my memory is fuzzy.
Something I forgot to add: he said he's no more concerned about the UK variant than he is any other variant- meaning, they are all trouble for us.
On a linear scale, it looks like we have already had 5 waves, but the early ones get swamped out by the size of the later ones on a logarithmic scale.
As much of a fringe group as the COVID deniers, it's interesting that some people still believe we can get to zero COVID. What's more troubling is that there may be a coming clash of certain governments (the PRC, Singapore, Taiwan, South Korea) that want to eliminate COVID v. other governments that just accept we can't.
unherd.com
Inside the Zero Covid campaign
The urge to eliminate the virus is understandable — but at what cost?
unherd.com
Insane: Senate Democrats' Indefensible Betrayal of Science and Students
Bowing to Union Masters.
townhall.com
Hüsker Dü
DA
Hope it was worth it to her. A few minutes wearing a mask seems a small price to pay for hassle free shopping.
In a different situation -- such as being pulled over while driving -- I fear her unusual manner of speech ("show me the law - the FEDERAL law") might lead to a roadside sobriety test.
A bit over the top position, but the one thing I did find interesting is the lockdowns really are the classic trolley problem. It's a real good observation. The author clearly believes the answer to the trolley problem is that government should never pull the switch, but .doesn't do a great job of explaining why not (other than to argue pulling the switch results in equal or greater harm)
www.juliusruechel.com
Bystander at the Switch: The Moral Case Against COVID Lockdowns
"Bystander at the Switch" is a moral riddle. COVID lockdowns are that dilemma. And universal human rights were invented to stop us pulling the switch.
kickingandscreaming
PREMIER
A bit over the top position, but the one thing I did find interesting is the lockdowns really are the classic trolley problem. It's a real good observation. The author clearly believes the answer to the trolley problem is that government should never pull the switch, but .doesn't do a great job of explaining why not (other than to argue pulling the switch results in equal or greater harm)
Bystander at the Switch: The Moral Case Against COVID Lockdowns
"Bystander at the Switch" is a moral riddle. COVID lockdowns are that dilemma. And universal human rights were invented to stop us pulling the switch.
