Bad News Thread

[dad4]

The paper was not needed, other than that concluding paragraph. In a way, it reminds me of Sokal's prank paper on Transformative Hermeneutics of Quantum Gravity, which actually got published in a professional journal 25 years ago.

The estimate for impact on Rt is very useful.

They put it at 42% reduction for being in summer. Or, equivalently, a 73% increase for being in winter.

That scale of difference implies that most of CA will see a peak again this winter- even without Delta. With current behavior, we are almost at a steady state in summer. Multiply R by 1.7, and it looks messy again.

 

[espola]

The estimate for impact on Rt is very useful.

They put it at 42% reduction for being in summer. Or, equivalently, a 73% increase for being in winter.

That scale of difference implies that most of CA will see a peak again this winter- even without Delta. With current behavior, we are almost at a steady state in summer. Multiply R by 1.7, and it looks messy again.

There are so many fudge factors in their arithmetic that even if they are wrong, they can show you how.

It reminds me of the old engineering school humor formulas for the angle of the dangle.

 

[dad4]

There are so many fudge factors in their arithmetic that even if they are wrong, they can show you how.

It reminds me of the old engineering school humor formulas for the angle of the dangle.

You might ignore it if we had not had a large surge in cases last winter, and if Argentina were not such a mess right now. Those numbers are completely consistent with a large seasonal swing in R.

Are you arguing whether the impact is 32% or 52%? Or are you trying to make a case that covid is not seasonally dependent? I don’t see much logical room for the second.

 

[espola]

You might ignore it if we had not had a large surge in cases last winter, and if Argentina were not such a mess right now. Those numbers are completely consistent with a large seasonal swing in R.

Are you arguing whether the impact is 32% or 52%? Or are you trying to make a case that covid is not seasonally dependent? I don’t see much logical room for the second.

My original argument was that it is too soon to tell, even before seeing this paper. Their best argument is that most viral respiratory diseases have shown seasonal behavior. This paper recognizes a lot of factors that may mask the seasonality, so they have prepared escape clauses no matter what happens. If the global vaccination effort is truly successful, there won't be a second year to extract a seasonal behavior from anyways.

As I have already posted, their Conclusion paragraph is obvious and unnecessary.

 

[Desert Hound]

You might ignore it if we had not had a large surge in cases last winter, and if Argentina were not such a mess right now. Those numbers are completely consistent with a large seasonal swing in R.

Are you arguing whether the impact is 32% or 52%? Or are you trying to make a case that covid is not seasonally dependent? I don’t see much logical room for the second.

We are vaccinated. We will be fine.

Argentina?

Well they have made some bad decisions. They bought 20+ million doses from the Russians. They have also signed a deal with the Chinese. And for a laugher they are considering a Cuban vaccine.

They are finally starting to get in still relatively small quantities the good vaccines produced in the west.

Had they started with the good stuff they would be fine. Instead they went cheap and bought from the Russians and the Chi-Coms.

 

[Desert Hound]

We are vaccinated. We will be fine.

Argentina?

Well they have made some bad decisions. They bought 20+ million doses from the Russians. They have also signed a deal with the Chinese. And for a laugher they are considering a Cuban vaccine.

They are finally starting to get in still relatively small quantities the good vaccines produced in the west.

Had they started with the good stuff they would be fine. Instead they went cheap and bought from the Russians and the Chi-Coms.

They also only have a relatively small percentage of their population vaccinated to begin with...and most are with the suspect Russian vaccine.

 

[dad4]

We are vaccinated. We will be fine.

Argentina?

Well they have made some bad decisions. They bought 20+ million doses from the Russians. They have also signed a deal with the Chinese. And for a laugher they are considering a Cuban vaccine.

They are finally starting to get in still relatively small quantities the good vaccines produced in the west.

Had they started with the good stuff they would be fine. Instead they went cheap and bought from the Russians and the Chi-Coms.

It depends on what you mean by “We are vaccinated. We will be fine.”

If you mean “Hound and Dad4 are vaccinated. We will be fine”, then you are correct and I appreciate your concern.

If you mean, “The country as a whole is vaccinated”, then you are in error.

Our current vaccination rate is probably not high enough to handle a seasonal swing of a high transmission variant like Delta.

 

[Desert Hound]

It depends on what you mean by “We are vaccinated. We will be fine.”

If you mean “Hound and Dad4 are vaccinated. We will be fine”, then you are correct and I appreciate your concern.

If you mean, “The country as a whole is vaccinated”, then you are in error.

Our current vaccination rate is probably not high enough to handle a seasonal swing of a high transmission variant like Delta.

The people that count are vaccinated at a very high rate. The 65+ are 80% or more vaccinated. And that is the group where you had 80% of all deaths.

 

[Grace T.]

The people that count are vaccinated at a very high rate. The 65+ are 80% or more vaccinated. And that is the group where you had 80% of all deaths.

In fairness to dad4 the data out of India and the Uk is showing it’s also more complicating for the 40-65 year old set. But the reply to that is those people have now had a chance to be fully vaccinated and if they have refused it’s on them.

if for example mortality for 0-12 had substantial increased (over the mortality for the yearly flu) and 0-12 could still not get vaccinated, then dad would have a point. But since that does not appear to be the case he doesn’t.

 

[watfly]

It depends on what you mean by “We are vaccinated. We will be fine.”

If you mean “Hound and Dad4 are vaccinated. We will be fine”, then you are correct and I appreciate your concern.

If you mean, “The country as a whole is vaccinated”, then you are in error.

Our current vaccination rate is probably not high enough to handle a seasonal swing of a high transmission variant like Delta.

I'm somewhat skeptical of what the true number is for herd immunity, but apparently "they" are claiming that SD and CA are there. SD is 75% for 12 and older. CA is 66% for 12 and older and >70% for adults.

San Diego County reaches key benchmark: herd immunity

State workers arrived at Palomar Medical Center Escondido Monday to begin removing the beds, ventilators and other equipment that have filled two floors of the hospital since April 2020, when it lo…

www.sandiegouniontribune.com

Obviously there are some caveats to herd immunity.

 

[espola]

The people that count are vaccinated at a very high rate. The 65+ are 80% or more vaccinated. And that is the group where you had 80% of all deaths.

In any pre-covid year, the overwhelming majority of all death from all causes are in that 65+ group. Does your analysis take that into account.

 

[kickingandscreaming]

I'm somewhat skeptical of what the true number is for herd immunity, but apparently "they" are claiming that SD and CA are there. SD is 75% for 12 and older. CA is 66% for 12 and older and >70% for adults.

It's all a guessing game. Is the "safe" distance really 6 feet? How long does the vaccine "last"? How sick will people get if they get it but had the vaccine? How many people have immunity that already had it but didn't get vaccinated? The last one is NEVER included in any analysis of herd immunity. Of course, current "reporting" is generally not about giving full information. It is about encouraging or scaring people into getting the vaccine or scaring people from getting the vaccine.

 

[Grace T.]

It's all a guessing game. Is the "safe" distance really 6 feet? How long does the vaccine "last"? How sick will people get if they get it but had the vaccine? How many people have immunity that already had it but didn't get vaccinated? The last one is NEVER included in any analysis of herd immunity. Of course, current "reporting" is generally not about giving full information. It is about encouraging or scaring people into getting the vaccine or scaring people from getting the vaccine.

True this, but seroprevalence studies of Indian cities pre the Delta were just under 50% from the first wave (yeah, there were some troubles with the studies including self-selection but even with the distortion it's still north of 40%)...with an R0 of over 6, the Delta variant is going to make sure that every last person who hasn't had it (and some that have) will get it so the herd immunity number is likely to be very high (again, as you said, it's all just a guess). The herd immunity numbers are also a variable which fluctuate based on the R0, seasonality and mobility, among other factors. The evolutionary pressure (as life always seeks to survive) is then likely to pressure the virus to steer away from existing immunity,

But, as has been said before, the vaccines do a very good job of preventing serious complications. Part of the problem with the novel coronavirus is that it's novel so our immune systems haven't seen it before....but once vaccinated they have, which even if the antibodies fail, we still have the t cells. It's becoming more and more likely this thing becomes endemic, though there's still a chance it blows itself out if the Delta variant quickly hits herd immunity thresholds.

 

[dad4]

I'm somewhat skeptical of what the true number is for herd immunity, but apparently "they" are claiming that SD and CA are there. SD is 75% for 12 and older. CA is 66% for 12 and older and >70% for adults.

San Diego County reaches key benchmark: herd immunity

State workers arrived at Palomar Medical Center Escondido Monday to begin removing the beds, ventilators and other equipment that have filled two floors of the hospital since April 2020, when it lo…

www.sandiegouniontribune.com

Obviously there are some caveats to herd immunity.

I think the journalist who wrote the article misunderstands the science. He’s taking the early herd immunity estimate for total pop and applying it to the 12+ vax rate.

I come up with about 69% immunity in SD, after accounting for natural immunity and breakthrough infections. Nice, but not the 85% they think is needed for Delta. SCC came in at 70%. Higher vaccination rate but lower seroprevalence.

 

[watfly]

I think the journalist who wrote the article misunderstands the science.

Journalism is dead, so I will take your word for it. Unfortunately, science is heading down the same path.

 

[dad4]

Journalism is dead, so I will take your word for it. Unfortunately, science is heading down the same path.

here’s some of the dead science for you:

Delta variant could cause significant third wave - latest Imperial modelling | Imperial News | Imperial College London

Imperial’s latest modelling suggests the Delta variant could lead to a significant third wave of hospitalisations and deaths.

www.imperial.ac.uk

ICL is estimating that Delta is about 2x as infectious as UK/Alpha.

So, get your shots and eat your veggies.

 

[watfly]

here’s some of the dead science for you:

Delta variant could cause significant third wave - latest Imperial modelling | Imperial News | Imperial College London

Imperial’s latest modelling suggests the Delta variant could lead to a significant third wave of hospitalisations and deaths.

www.imperial.ac.uk

ICL is estimating that Delta is about 2x as infectious as UK/Alpha.

So, get your shots and eat your veggies.

The article lost me at "modeling".

I'm doing better with my veggies, and I plan on adding a lot of natural vitamin D to my regimen.

 

[crush]

The article lost me at "modeling".

I'm doing better with my veggies, and I plan on adding a lot of natural vitamin D to my regimen.

Excellent!!! Right now I'm eating baby potatoes, bell peppers, onions, cilantro, squash and some super tasty avocado on top. This morning I had my juices and some tasty oatmeal. I can say 100% I feel the best ever. I quit coffee too. Lemon water and some tasty tea that wires me up for the day. Keep doing better bro. Try to cut meat out for 30 days and see how you feel.

 

[Kicker4Life]

This thread is becoming more and more like Chicken Little by the day….

 

[dad4]

This thread is becoming more and more like Chicken Little by the day….

That's just me. Most of the thread is more like an ostrich than a chicken.