There will always be uncertainty, true. And there is risk with all that we do, that is true as well. But as a public health matter, we are in the infancy w/this illness (fortunately, we have known about coronaviruses for some time so there is a body of knowledge that means the scientists are not starting from zero). If I were an AD or college president, would I be OK with putting students back in congregant living environments + contact sports v teams coming from other communities while relying on statistics that look back 8 months? And in that 8 months, we took young people largely out of circulation by closing schools and colleges? I'm not OK with that and my kid, like many on this board, had half her senior year of HS taken, had her first year college experience gutted, has been in isolation hoping to play w/her team while major real-life BS was happening in her community at home so I understand the impact even if people are not sick.
What happens in this early period, when a player on a Big XII or SEC football team who is living in a dorm comes down with the illness? How does it impact the team he just played against? How about all the dormmates? Teammates? Classmates? Parents? Grandparents? Professors? Food service employees? Etc. Sure, nothing may come of it. And, sure, it may be significant insignificant for all but the people directly touched (and their family members and close friends).
I understand that we all have our own personal risk tolerance and some may feel like enough time has passed and the risk appears low while others may think that barely any time has passed and the risk remains unknown. But b/c this is a public health catastrophe that is indiscriminate (like 2d hand smoke but where the impact is not cancer in 50 years but an illness in weeks), and b/c it is still so new and b/c our national leaders botched something that had they gotten right would have put us in a position that is more like Europe and we'd probably be closer to having sports, dinning in groups, living a more normal life.
I really do hope that more is known in the next 3 months and the NCAA and the conferences are OK with proceeding with a spring schedule. But, as you say, I could die tomorrow. Here's an aside and an example: when my dad was alive, he and I would dream of being able to see my daughter rep the US at a tournament or even a friendly that would take place at home. Sadly (or maybe the best), she was at a YNT camp when he died (and he was lucid until his very last couple of days so he was aware she was there). It was hard on her - she loved my dad very much - and she wanted to come home. But she stayed and had great support and I flew to the camp to watch her in a scrimmage. She played for the US in Jan in FL (about 15 months after he passed) - China was one of the teams and we were alerted to the protocols that the US, the state of FL and the Federation were taking so, as I noted upthread, the knowledge of this virus was there) - and as proud as I was to watch her in a US kit, I shed a lot of tears thinking of my dad and how he would have been there with me (and even though it was a night game, I am 100% certain that the ol' curmudgeon would have kept his dark glasses on). I made the decision to go b/c "you never know" - I have hardware in my body keeping me alive. What if it malfunctions? What if I get hit by a bus when walking my dog? What if the stove catches fire and I'm stuck? No regrets in a 36 hr cross-country trip. But, and here's the key, that is MY life, not my daughter's. I want more knowledge before I think, "yeah. All good. The #s are low. Chances are that the women's soccer player who gets sick and dies will not be my kid". But I'm not good with saying "all good" b/c that kid might be the daughter of someone on this board. Or niece. Or very best friend. Yes, risk exists but I'm not willing to be the first one to use a bungy cord to jump off a cliff and, really, that is what we'd be asking of our young athletes (hey, that cord was designed and tested by engineers . . . it will almost certainly hold. Wanna go first?).