2020 Women's D1 Soccer Talk!!!! EXTENDED TO SPRING '21!!!!

[Simisoccerfan]

Hope?


"We're sending you off to war with an unknown menace, son. I hope you survive unscathed."

This the same advice I would give to anyone reading your posts! lol

 

[Mystery Train]

There will always be uncertainty, true. And there is risk with all that we do, that is true as well. But as a public health matter, we are in the infancy w/this illness (fortunately, we have known about coronaviruses for some time so there is a body of knowledge that means the scientists are not starting from zero). If I were an AD or college president, would I be OK with putting students back in congregant living environments + contact sports v teams coming from other communities while relying on statistics that look back 8 months? And in that 8 months, we took young people largely out of circulation by closing schools and colleges? I'm not OK with that and my kid, like many on this board, had half her senior year of HS taken, had her first year college experience gutted, has been in isolation hoping to play w/her team while major real-life BS was happening in her community at home so I understand the impact even if people are not sick.

What happens in this early period, when a player on a Big XII or SEC football team who is living in a dorm comes down with the illness? How does it impact the team he just played against? How about all the dormmates? Teammates? Classmates? Parents? Grandparents? Professors? Food service employees? Etc. Sure, nothing may come of it. And, sure, it may be significant insignificant for all but the people directly touched (and their family members and close friends).

I understand that we all have our own personal risk tolerance and some may feel like enough time has passed and the risk appears low while others may think that barely any time has passed and the risk remains unknown. But b/c this is a public health catastrophe that is indiscriminate (like 2d hand smoke but where the impact is not cancer in 50 years but an illness in weeks), and b/c it is still so new and b/c our national leaders botched something that had they gotten right would have put us in a position that is more like Europe and we'd probably be closer to having sports, dinning in groups, living a more normal life.

I really do hope that more is known in the next 3 months and the NCAA and the conferences are OK with proceeding with a spring schedule. But, as you say, I could die tomorrow. Here's an aside and an example: when my dad was alive, he and I would dream of being able to see my daughter rep the US at a tournament or even a friendly that would take place at home. Sadly (or maybe the best), she was at a YNT camp when he died (and he was lucid until his very last couple of days so he was aware she was there). It was hard on her - she loved my dad very much - and she wanted to come home. But she stayed and had great support and I flew to the camp to watch her in a scrimmage. She played for the US in Jan in FL (about 15 months after he passed) - China was one of the teams and we were alerted to the protocols that the US, the state of FL and the Federation were taking so, as I noted upthread, the knowledge of this virus was there) - and as proud as I was to watch her in a US kit, I shed a lot of tears thinking of my dad and how he would have been there with me (and even though it was a night game, I am 100% certain that the ol' curmudgeon would have kept his dark glasses on). I made the decision to go b/c "you never know" - I have hardware in my body keeping me alive. What if it malfunctions? What if I get hit by a bus when walking my dog? What if the stove catches fire and I'm stuck? No regrets in a 36 hr cross-country trip. But, and here's the key, that is MY life, not my daughter's. I want more knowledge before I think, "yeah. All good. The #s are low. Chances are that the women's soccer player who gets sick and dies will not be my kid". But I'm not good with saying "all good" b/c that kid might be the daughter of someone on this board. Or niece. Or very best friend. Yes, risk exists but I'm not willing to be the first one to use a bungy cord to jump off a cliff and, really, that is what we'd be asking of our young athletes (hey, that cord was designed and tested by engineers . . . it will almost certainly hold. Wanna go first?).

Dk, you're way too intelligent and rational to be a soccer parent. I call BS!

 

[dk_b]

Hope?


"We're sending you off to war with an unknown menace, son. I hope you survive unscathed."

Yes, "hope". But in reading my posts, I'd expect that it's clear that "hope", for me, is not enough. I'd assume you have the same hope and that everyone has the same hope - who wouldn't hope that young people don't suffer as much damage as middle-age or older folks?

The Newsweek article is poor but the underlying study is interesting and I'm going to try to slog my way through it. It's cautionary and seems easily replicable using a younger cohort. Until it is repeated over and over with larger groups, it's usefulness is as a cautionary anecdote. And given my risk aversion, that's enough for me at this point.

 

[dk_b]

Dk, you're way too intelligent and rational to be a soccer parent. I call BS!

Ha ha! I like sharing and I don't like fighting online. Back in the thumbs down days, I'd always ask for an explanation re a disagreement rather than just a thumbs down - and I never used that feature. I learn a lot from all of you and when I read something w/which I disagree (or even a thread that leaves me with disgust - I will often read w/o commenting), I often come away better informed and either questioning, changing or reaffirming my beliefs (reading a disagreeing view but reaffirming my opinion is a positive exercise for an old guy).

 

[Desert Hound]

our national leaders botched something that had they gotten right would have put us in a position that is more like Europe and we'd probably be closer to having sports, dinning in groups, living a more normal life.

You know that if you look at Germany, France, UK, Spain, Italy combined they have about as many deaths as the US. And those countries combined have about the same population as the US.

So what they did, didn't make much of a difference relative to the US.

 

[SD_Soccer]

Ha ha! I like sharing and I don't like fighting online. Back in the thumbs down days, I'd always ask for an explanation re a disagreement rather than just a thumbs down - and I never used that feature. I learn a lot from all of you and when I read something w/which I disagree (or even a thread that leaves me with disgust - I will often read w/o commenting), I often come away better informed and either questioning, changing or reaffirming my beliefs (reading a disagreeing view but reaffirming my opinion is a positive exercise for an old guy).

I believe in science. I believe in scientists. We are getting more rapid and accurate tests (spit) that can allow us to find and isolate the sick and prevent spread. We sequenced the virus and we know the target to create vaccines and antivirals. We have artificial intelligence to more rapidly go through the scientific discovery process. We will get back to a more normal life, and I believe it will be by next summer at latest. This virus is not as complex as HIV/AIDS. We will win, just not as quick as any of us would like (and try being a teenager or young adult who has little life experience to contextualize this virus). I want my son and daughter to get back playing again. This is harder for my son than daughter since this is his senior year of high school and he doesn’t want to play in college, so his last chance. At least my daughter will have 2 more years of college (3 if she stays for a 5th year— not likely as she is pre-med and needs medical hours before applying).

 

[dk_b]

I believe in science. I believe in scientists. We are getting more rapid and accurate tests (spit) that can allow us to find and isolate the sick and prevent spread. We sequenced the virus and we know the target to create vaccines and antivirals. We have artificial intelligence to more rapidly go through the scientific discovery process. We will get back to a more normal life, and I believe it will be by next summer at latest. This virus is not as complex as HIV/AIDS. We will win, just not as quick as any of us would like (and try being a teenager or young adult who has little life experience to contextualize this virus). I want my son and daughter to get back playing again. This is harder for my son than daughter since this is his senior year of high school and he doesn’t want to play in college, so his last chance. At least my daughter will have 2 more years of college (3 if she stays for a 5th year— not likely as she is pre-med and needs medical hours before applying).

Well said. I agree with much of that - and noted several of those points on the other thread covering this stuff. Even if we implemented some of the testing (whether the quick tests, pool tests in congregant living or working environments, combination) and some of non-invasive, non-disruptive actions (hand-washing, masks) and even a short but intense period of isolation, we'd be there sooner - at least in terms of significant slowing down and some return to normalcy.

You know that if you look at Germany, France, UK, Spain, Italy combined they have about as many deaths as the US. And those countries combined have about the same population as the US.

So what they did, didn't make much of a difference relative to the US.

A rough count looks like we have about 10MM more people (about 3%) and about 40K (about 23%) more deaths right now. But their current numbers, even with some small outbreaks, are much better than ours as we continue to have new cases and, soon enough, new deaths. We will be over 200K but how many is too many or how many is a statistical blip? For some, 200K is the same as 500K or 1MM - still not even 1/2 of 1% - so long as it has not hit someone close to them. For others, we reached crisis numbers after our deaths were in the thousands. I don't expect any one person to have the same perspective that I do nor will I share someone else's 100%. But when the "getting it wrong" means more spread and more death, I don't think we can afford to take the chance. Especially because some measures exist to slow things down and, as @SD_Soccer states, more aggressive solutions will be here.

 

[MakeAPlay]

There is about zero risk for the players. Nationwide 275 people under 24 have died due to covid.

So they have really no risk.

Yes not playing for a national championship SUCKS. At the least they can play to win their conferences, play vs their normal rivals, AND play for the love of the game.

That is what they would be playing for.

LOL!!!!!!

Sounds like you are okay with risking your kid's life and long term health for the chance not to play for a national championship. Sounds like that makes a lot of sense to me. My kid loves the game but she wouldn't be playing if there wasn't such robust testing (3-4 times a week) and a bubble. Good luck to your player.

 

[MSK357]

LOL!!!!!!

Sounds like you are okay with risking your kid's life and long term health for the chance not to play for a national championship. Sounds like that makes a lot of sense to me. My kid loves the game but she wouldn't be playing if there wasn't such robust testing (3-4 times a week) and a bubble. Good luck to your player.

You do know hundreds of people under 24 die every year from the seasonal flu right? If we go by statistics for kids under 24, the flu is more dangerous than COVID. By your logic, we've been risking kids lives from the flu every flu season.

Estimated Flu-Related Illnesses, Medical visits, Hospitalizations, and Deaths in the United States — 2018–2019 Flu Season | CDC

CDC calculates estimates of disease burden in the United States using surveillance data and modeling to adjust for sources of under-detection. Burden estimates for the 2018-2019 season found here.

www.cdc.gov

 

[Desert Hound]

You do know hundreds of people under 24 die every year from the seasonal flu right? If we go by statistics for kids under 24, the flu is more dangerous than COVID. By your logic, we've been risking kids lives from the flu every flu season.

Estimated Flu-Related Illnesses, Medical visits, Hospitalizations, and Deaths in the United States — 2018–2019 Flu Season | CDC

CDC calculates estimates of disease burden in the United States using surveillance data and modeling to adjust for sources of under-detection. Burden estimates for the 2018-2019 season found here.

www.cdc.gov

And therein lies the problem.

People do not look at stats. The news doesn't provide context either.

All you hear is covid is deadly, etc. etc. It is to certain groups. Mainly 80+ individuals.

The stats clearly show there is virtually zero risk to under 24 yr olds. CDC has the stats. Compare the 24 and under age group covid deaths vs the flu over the same time period.

And further note that is not some biased source of info from a right or left group. Those stats are compiled by the CDC. All the other countries show the same thing in terms of who is at risk.

 

[dk_b]

You do know hundreds of people under 24 die every year from the seasonal flu right? If we go by statistics for kids under 24, the flu is more dangerous than COVID. By your logic, we've been risking kids lives from the flu every flu season.

Estimated Flu-Related Illnesses, Medical visits, Hospitalizations, and Deaths in the United States — 2018–2019 Flu Season | CDC

CDC calculates estimates of disease burden in the United States using surveillance data and modeling to adjust for sources of under-detection. Burden estimates for the 2018-2019 season found here.

www.cdc.gov

Is the data there to support that? We did shut schools, stop sports, curtail much congregant activity since mid-March. Do we actually know that, given the 170,000 and counting (which is way more than the estimated 24,000 to 62,000 flu deaths in the 2018-19 flu season), that had people younger than 24 been living a "normal" life, COVID would still be considered less deadly than the flu? I'm not able to come to that conclusion given how much and how little we know about this. So unless the statistics actually account for the significant change in youthful behavior in 2020, the conclusion that "the flu is more dangerous than COVID" seems really subjective.

 

[EOTL]

Well said. I agree with much of that - and noted several of those points on the other thread covering this stuff. Even if we implemented some of the testing (whether the quick tests, pool tests in congregant living or working environments, combination) and some of non-invasive, non-disruptive actions (hand-washing, masks) and even a short but intense period of isolation, we'd be there sooner - at least in terms of significant slowing down and some return to normalcy.




A rough count looks like we have about 10MM more people (about 3%) and about 40K (about 23%) more deaths right now. But their current numbers, even with some small outbreaks, are much better than ours as we continue to have new cases and, soon enough, new deaths. We will be over 200K but how many is too many or how many is a statistical blip? For some, 200K is the same as 500K or 1MM - still not even 1/2 of 1% - so long as it has not hit someone close to them. For others, we reached crisis numbers after our deaths were in the thousands. I don't expect any one person to have the same perspective that I do nor will I share someone else's 100%. But when the "getting it wrong" means more spread and more death, I don't think we can afford to take the chance. Especially because some measures exist to slow things down and, as @SD_Soccer states, more aggressive solutions will be here.

Also keep in mind that comparing deaths in European countries is misleading in that the vast majority of those deaths occurred to people who were infected before countries even had any idea what was happening, how dangerous it is, and how if is spread. There were roughly 60k deaths in those countries in March and the first few days of April. There is no excuse for what continues to happen in the US, however, other than Americans are dumb and will make any misleading or false argument to rationalize their ongoing stupid and dangerous behavior. If we’d done what European countries did, there wouldn’t be 1,000+ dying here every day with no end in sight.

 

[EOTL]

And therein lies the problem.

People do not look at stats. The news doesn't provide context either.

All you hear is covid is deadly, etc. etc. It is to certain groups. Mainly 80+ individuals.

The stats clearly show there is virtually zero risk to under 24 yr olds. CDC has the stats. Compare the 24 and under age group covid deaths vs the flu over the same time period.

And further note that is not some biased source of info from a right or left group. Those stats are compiled by the CDC. All the other countries show the same thing in terms of who is at risk.

173,000 have died of Covid-19 so far with another 1000+ a day. How does that stack up with the flu?

 

[Desert Hound]

173,000 have died of Covid-19 so far with another 1000+ a day. How does that stack up with the flu?

I know you have trouble reading.

We are talking college age individuals and under. Basically 24 yrs and younger.

To date there have been about 270 total deaths of people 24 yrs and under. That age group has about ZERO risk as it relates to covid. Go look up how many people in the same age group have died during the same time period from the flu. Rather similar.

 

[Mystery Train]

Credentialed epidemiologists around the world after months of studying patients and cases: "Whoah. This new COVID strain is really unusual. We're not sure how dangerous it's going to prove to be to young people in the long run. We're going to have to take our best guess, be cautious and see how it plays out after we get more data."

Soccer Dad with an iPhone and google: "Pfffft. The regular flu is worse."

 

[Ellejustus]

Let's shut everything down folks. Everyone gets no pay until Jan 1st and no job waiting for them either. We all start fresh 2021. No one works except Nurses, Docs and Fire. Police stay home and rest this one out as well and the rest of us take a break and chill and get ready for the reboot. Their is too much scary stuff now that has me frighten as well. The danger ahead sign is out in force as like never before in the history of my life. If DK wants it all shut down, it's time to call it a day folks. No sports for all until all our safe. We dont know what will happen tomorrow or the long term with this virus from Europe so let's error in caution that someone didn;t do anything to fix and now its all his fault. Peace everyone in the D1 world. Shut it all down until a vaccine is my advice. I hope under 18 can play this fall but I will respect the wishes of so many of you. No one wins in any of this debate.

 

[EOTL]

I know you have trouble reading.

We are talking college age individuals and under. Basically 24 yrs and younger.

To date there have been about 270 total deaths of people 24 yrs and under. That age group has about ZERO risk as it relates to covid. Go look up how many people in the same age group have died during the same time period from the flu. Rather similar.

There have been exactly zero deaths of those who haven’t died from it, so we must be good to go.

 

[dk_b]

Let's shut everything down folks. Everyone gets no pay until Jan 1st and no job waiting for them either. We all start fresh 2021. No one works except Nurses, Docs and Fire. Police stay home and rest this one out as well and the rest of us take a break and chill and get ready for the reboot. Their is too much scary stuff now that has me frighten as well. The danger ahead sign is out in force as like never before in the history of my life. If DK wants it all shut down, it's time to call it a day folks. No sports for all until all our safe. We dont know what will happen tomorrow or the long term with this virus from Europe so let's error in caution that someone didn;t do anything to fix and now its all his fault. Peace everyone in the D1 world. Shut it all down until a vaccine is my advice. I hope under 18 can play this fall but I will respect the wishes of so many of you. No one wins in any of this debate.
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odd to invoke my name in there. I have not called for everything to be shut down. I’ve said that I’m good with a cautionary approach and I support the postponing of the fall season. But I also believe that other aspects of life can continue with reasonable steps to protect one another.

 

[Desert Hound]

Anyway...any other conferences going to call it quits?

 

[Ellejustus]

odd to invoke my name in there. I have not called for everything to be shut down. I’ve said that I’m good with a cautionary approach and I support the postponing of the fall season. But I also believe that other aspects of life can continue with reasonable steps to protect one another.

This is a no win for any side DK and I was only invoking you as someone I thought was crazy like me and when I read your story, it hit me hard. If you want to play like Hound Dog and me, were selfish and care very little for other peoples health. Basically, this has become one hot_____________________ _ _ _ _ ing weapon here in Cali and is being used against little kids under 18. That's just my two cents and all of you guys are way smarter than I ever was. I can see all the legal sh*t the big U has to maneuver through and the risk is too risky for getting sued. Why is the SEC playing football and Pac 12 a no? Money only? Selfishness on the players? Coaches like Leach making them play now or lose scholarship? Be called a wimp? Players voiced their desire to play this fall? They have schedule out and all ready to ball and Pac 12 is a no. California is basically one big no for anything sports related. That has to cause you of all people to ponder and wonder in your mind, "Hey, whats going on here? No? I knew long ago 100% what was going on and it's 100% sic. Just wait for more breaking news. This is nothing that's about to come and I mean that 100%. I try and make light of very serious situations. It's my way of dealing with pain.

 

[MSK357]

Is the data there to support that? We did shut schools, stop sports, curtail much congregant activity since mid-March. Do we actually know that, given the 170,000 and counting (which is way more than the estimated 24,000 to 62,000 flu deaths in the 2018-19 flu season), that had people younger than 24 been living a "normal" life, COVID would still be considered less deadly than the flu? I'm not able to come to that conclusion given how much and how little we know about this. So unless the statistics actually account for the significant change in youthful behavior in 2020, the conclusion that "the flu is more dangerous than COVID" seems really subjective.

Also keep in mind that comparing deaths in European countries is misleading in that the vast majority of those deaths occurred to people who were infected before countries even had any idea what was happening, how dangerous it is, and how if is spread. There were roughly 60k deaths in those countries in March and the first few days of April. There is no excuse for what continues to happen in the US, however, other than Americans are dumb and will make any misleading or false argument to rationalize their ongoing stupid and dangerous behavior. If we’d done what European countries did, there wouldn’t be 1,000+ dying here every day with no end in sight.

Well, it looks like although you agree with each other, you are also contradicting each other. EOTL says european countries deaths occured before they had any idea what was happening, yet their info on how COVID reacts to children is still same as over here. Even in china, their studies showed that there is minimal risk to children, especially outdoors. There is enough data and scientific information within our own country to show the minimal risk to children, especially healthy children. So if you want to go against the science AND stats, Go ahead and keep your children at home. My position on this has changed anyway. I now want all of you to keep your children at home. My kids on the other hand will continue to go out, train, and scrimmage. Even though my "goats" don't need an advantage, ill take the 5+ months of continued training while others are doing zoom and socially distancing. But I have a strong feeling your kids are doing the same, hypocrites.