A 15 hour work week.....continued
Universal basic income
A universal basic income (UBI) has been proposed as one possible solution to the loss of jobs caused by automation. A UBI would give everyone a fixed amount of money, regularly, no matter what. Proponents say not only would it help eradicate poverty, but it would be especially useful for people whose jobs are eliminated by automation, giving them the flexibility to learn new skills required in a new job or industry, without having to worry about how they'd eat or pay rent.
Some also suggest it would breed innovation. In his Harvard speech, Zuckerberg told the audience: "We should have a society that measures progress not just by economic metrics like GDP, but by how many of us have a role we find meaningful. We should explore ideas like
universal basic income to give everyone a cushion to try new things."
Several countries are exploring or experimenting with a UBI, including Kenya, Finland, the Netherlands and Canada.
Concerns about automation aren't new
Americans have been
worrying about automation wiping out jobs for centuries, and in some occupations, automation has drastically reduced the need for human labor.
- In 1900, 41% of American workers were employed in agriculture, but by 2000, automated machinery brought that number down to just 2%, MIT professor David Autor wrote in the Journal of Economic Perspectives in 2015.
- The arrival of the automobile ushered out horses, reducing the need for blacksmiths and stable hands.
- In the 21st century, computers are increasingly performing tasks humans once did.
But the relationship between automation and employment is complex. When automation replaces human labor, it can also reduce cost and improve quality, which, in turn, increases demand.
Such was the case in textiles. In the early 19th century,
98% of the work of a weaver became automated, but the number of textile workers actually grew.
"At the beginning of the 19th century, it was so expensive that ... a typical person had one set of clothing," Bessen said. "As the price started dropping because of automation, people started buying more and more, so that by the 1920s the average person was consuming 10 times as much cloth per capita per year."
More demand for cloth meant a greater need for textile workers. But that demand, eventually, was satisfied.
When ATMs were introduced in the 1970s, people thought they would be a death knell for bank tellers. The number of tellers per bank did fall, but because ATMs reduced the cost of operating a bank branch, more branches opened, which in turn hired more tellers. U.S. bank teller employment
rose by 50,000 between 1980 and 2010. But the tasks of those tellers evolved from simply dispensing cash to selling other things the banks provided, like credit cards and loans. And the skills those tellers had that the ATMs didn't — like problem solving — became more valuable.
When
computers take over some human tasks within an occupation, Bessen's
research shows those occupations grow faster, not slower.
"AI is coming in and it’s going to make accountants that much better, it’s going to make financial advisers that much better, it’s going to make health care providers that much more effective, so we’re going to be using more of their services at least for the next 10 or 20 years," Bessen said.
These examples, though, are of occupations where automation replaces some part of human labor. What about when automation completely replaces the humans in an entire occupation? So far, that's been pretty rare. In
a 2016 paper, Bessen looked at 271 detailed occupations used in the 1950 Census and found that while many occupations no longer exist, in only one case was the demise of an occupation attributed mostly to automation: the elevator operator.
A
2017 report from the McKinsey Global Institute found that less than 5% of occupations can be completely automated.
What's in store
History has taught us a lot about how automation disrupts industries, though economists admit they can't account for the infinite ways technology may unsettle work in the future.
When a new era of automation does usher in major economic and social disruption — which Bessen doesn't predict will happen for at least another 30 to 50 years — it's humans that will ultimately decide the ways in which robots get to change the world.
"It's not a threat as much as an opportunity," he said. "It’s how we take advantage of it as individuals and a society that will determine the outcome."
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