Youth Soccer Rankings ?

[RandomSoccerFan]

No. You continue to misunderstand how the algorithm works, and what it represents. It's not giving bonus points because they think that a team "should" be stronger/ranked better or "should" be weaker/ranked worse. If you want a system like that, head over to GotSport or any of the other BS algorithms that add/subtract points based on feelings. SR figures out the most likely team to win based on prior actual game results. There is no bonus (or penalty) for league, age, gender, or anything else.

 

[Jamisfoes]

No. You continue to misunderstand how the algorithm works, and what it represents. It's not giving bonus points because they think that a team "should" be stronger/ranked better or "should" be weaker/ranked worse. If you want a system like that, head over to GotSport or any of the other BS algorithms that add/subtract points based on feelings. SR figures out the most likely team to win based on prior actual game results. There is no bonus (or penalty) for league, age, gender, or anything else.

It’s an algorithm. You can make it which ever way you like. You can weigh certain results more heavily. Currently you have teams that predominantly play in closed leagues and you rely on those few summer tournaments for cross pollination of data points. Even that is disappearing because mls next teams are playing in mls tournaments and ecnl on ecnl tournaments. Without teams that cross over and play each other, you are on shaky grounds statistically.

 

[Carlsbad7]

It’s an algorithm. You can make it which ever way you like. You can weigh certain results more heavily. Currently you have teams that predominantly play in closed leagues and you rely on those few summer tournaments for cross pollination of data points. Even that is disappearing because mls next teams are playing in mls tournaments and ecnl on ecnl tournaments. Without teams that cross over and play each other, you are on shaky grounds statistically.

Its not just MLSN and ECNL. Other leagues are exactly the same. Clubs retreat into closed leagues. Clubs in whichever league has the most "better" teams are incentivized to not play against clubs not in their league. If they win against the club outside of their league nothing changes because its the expected result. However if they lose they'll never hear the end of it from the club that beat them and all the other clubs in their league that think they devalued the league by loseing to a club outside the league. On top of everything else if clubs only play against clubs in their league it forces players to play on a club in their league. Which makes recruiting easier.

After youve been around it for a while its easy to see why everthing happens the way it does.

Oh, one more thing. If clubs are in a league with only really good clubs they give each other a boost in the soccer ranking app. You can see it when different regional leagues play each other in finals. Generally theres some swings when teams that dont play each other very often.

Its frustrating if you value competition and think everyone should have a chance at winning it all. Pay to play reinforcing itself. Get with the program or dont play at the highest levels.

 

[Socal-Soccer-Dad]

If they win against the club outside of their league nothing changes because its the expected result. However if they lose they'll never hear the end of it from the club that beat them and all the other clubs in their league that think they devalued the league by loseing to a club outside the league.

I think I agree with the general sentiment you're trying to portray about closed leagues.

But I don't think winning vs a club outside the league is "expected result" even for a "top league" like MLS Next Homegrown.

In any league, bottom 1/3 is really bad. If the bottom of the barrel MLS Next Homegrown team plays an ECNL team (unless it's also from the bottom of the table), most would expect that team to lose... Could even be vs an ECRL team or N1 team or whatever...

That's where I think the ranking is useful, albeit of course not perfect. It helps to compare teams that normally don't play vs each other.

Oh, one more thing. If clubs are in a league with only really good clubs they give each other a boost in the soccer ranking app. You can see it when different regional leagues play each other in finals. Generally theres some swings when teams that dont play each other very often.

I don't know the exact algorithm but it seems like it's points added and points deducted for wins or losses beyond the normal variance... so I don't know if the swings will be greater or lesser because it's inner league vs inter league.

If a mediocre club is in a league with only really good clubs, then that team's losses aren't penalized as much since the algo figures (based on ranking points) that that team would lose those anyway... but one place I can see it benefit the mediocre team is that if you're supposed to lose by 5-6 but the the good teams don't care to after beating them up all the time and now they're trying different lineups and tactics and happy to win by 2-3... then playing these good teams and "keeping the games close" will artificially increase ranking points.

 

[Socal-Soccer-Dad]

Even outside of league season, what I see this summer is increasingly mls next and ECNL teams are hiding in predominantly mls next or ecnl tournaments. It’s like the two leagues are afraid of playing each other. I am tired of playing the same teams that we already face during the season.

I'd imagine that's mainly about not losing their kids to other teams/leagues.

And also birth year vs school year since ECNL is on school year and MLS Next HD is on birth year still...

 

[Jamisfoes]

I'd imagine that's mainly about not losing their kids to other teams/leagues.

And also birth year vs school year since ECNL is on school year and MLS Next HD is on birth year still...

I can see why MLS next HD teams are afraid to play in Surf tournaments because they are half a year younger. But I don’t understand why there aren’t more ECNL teams in Albion tournaments. They will make a killing in there.

 

[Carlsbad7]

I think I agree with the general sentiment you're trying to portray about closed leagues.

But I don't think winning vs a club outside the league is "expected result" even for a "top league" like MLS Next Homegrown.

In any league, bottom 1/3 is really bad. If the bottom of the barrel MLS Next Homegrown team plays an ECNL team (unless it's also from the bottom of the table), most would expect that team to lose... Could even be vs an ECRL team or N1 team or whatever...

That's where I think the ranking is useful, albeit of course not perfect. It helps to compare teams that normally don't play vs each other.



I don't know the exact algorithm but it seems like it's points added and points deducted for wins or losses beyond the normal variance... so I don't know if the swings will be greater or lesser because it's inner league vs inter league.

If a mediocre club is in a league with only really good clubs, then that team's losses aren't penalized as much since the algo figures (based on ranking points) that that team would lose those anyway... but one place I can see it benefit the mediocre team is that if you're supposed to lose by 5-6 but the the good teams don't care to after beating them up all the time and now they're trying different lineups and tactics and happy to win by 2-3... then playing these good teams and "keeping the games close" will artificially increase ranking points.

Its a known issue called a feedback loop or echo chamber. Look it up if you like. Closed leagues with all top clubs participating can artificially inflate their ranking by only playing each other.

This is why I said when different regional leagues play each other in finals things can quickly change. Its because the teams they're playing arent part of the feedback loop so rankings correct. The same thing happens when clubs in the feedback loop play against teams outside the closed league in tournaments.

 

[RandomSoccerFan]

It’s an algorithm. You can make it which ever way you like. You can weigh certain results more heavily. Currently you have teams that predominantly play in closed leagues and you rely on those few summer tournaments for cross pollination of data points. Even that is disappearing because mls next teams are playing in mls tournaments and ecnl on ecnl tournaments. Without teams that cross over and play each other, you are on shaky grounds statistically.

No, again, you have no idea what you're talking about, and don't understand how it has been set up from the beginning. It rates teams by their likelihood to win. It gathers data on how the teams perform against each other. It processes that data to provide a result that ends up with highest number of games won. The higher percentage of predicted games won, the more accurate the rating (and in turn, ranking). The lower percentage of predicted games won, the less accurate the rating (and in turn, ranking).

Proposing to throw that out, and instead provide fake points to make the ECNL teams look stronger (or weaker) when compared against a MLSN team, is a silly idea, provided by someone who doesn't understand the benefit of SR versus rating systems that do provide subjective bonus points and try to subjectively rank teams. The only thing on shaky ground is your understanding.

Its a known issue called a feedback loop or echo chamber. Look it up if you like. Closed leagues with all top clubs participating can artificially inflate their ranking by only playing each other.

This is why I said when different regional leagues play each other in finals things can quickly change. Its because the teams they're playing arent part of the feedback loop so rankings correct. The same thing happens when clubs in the feedback loop play against teams outside the closed league in tournaments.

This has never been significant, isn't significant now, and won't be significant in the future. There is nothing "artificial" about any of the results. The rating predicts the performance of a team on its very next game against a rated team. Weaker teams / weaker leagues can cry until the cows come home that it's because they are locked out that their rating is so low - but they are on the very same statistical grounds as every other team in every other league. The limited crossplay there is, is more than enough to help balance the scales. As soon as there is any result that is significantly different than expected, by its very nature the rating continues to shift until it matches the current performance.

 

[RandomSoccerFan]

I was thinking more about a SR-specific tournament, whether local or national, and I just don't see how it could happen - and what problem it would be solving at the local level. Right now, at both the younger levels, and lower levels of competitiveness, teams organize themselves in to brackets. A club often tries to have a team in several brackets at each age group. It's often Gold/Silver/Bronze, or Flight 1/Flight 2/Flight 3, or any of the other combinations that we're all familiar with. A team is in one of those color-coded bracket for league, and tournaments as well set themselves up similarly. Tournament directors try and bracket teams together, so there is one for Gold teams, one for Silver teams, etc. It's a simple/straightforward setup that has been used for decades.

Now - a savvy tournament director could look at the brackets they've set up, see the SR ratings of the teams, and realize that in their particular case that weekend, the brackets are actually from 38-41, from 41-43, and 43-45. Naming the brackets that way would be silly, but it allows them to validate whether teams are actually in the right place. When they see that a team that's actually a 45 is sitting in a bracket with the rest of the teams from 38-41, they have a pretty good idea that the team will steamroll the division - regardless of what color they are calling themselves. In that case the tournament director has time to work with the coaches to figure out matchup that will results in closer games / less blowouts / better competition.

That's what's happening today whenever a tournament director uses SR to help their bracketing. It's what could be happening more tomorrow as they become aware of ways that it would make their lives easier. As I understand it, if a tournament director sends a link to the teams to SR, they will help develop the brackets to seed teams the closest - but I have no information on how widespread this is, and whether it's 5-10 tournaments across the US, or 100+.

None of the leagues/tournaments need to become more SR-branded, or really make any public-facing change if they choose to go down this path. The only result is that there should be less blowouts. SR used to rank tournaments by fairness of competition, and showed both those tht were very fairly flighted, as well as highlighting those tournaments that were very poorly flighted, resulting in way too many mismatches.

 

[Carlsbad7]

This has never been significant, isn't significant now, and won't be significant in the future. There is nothing "artificial" about any of the results. The rating predicts the performance of a team on its very next game against a rated team. Weaker teams / weaker leagues can cry until the cows come home that it's because they are locked out that their rating is so low - but they are on the very same statistical grounds as every other team in every other league. The limited crossplay there is, is more than enough to help balance the scales. As soon as there is any result that is significantly different than expected, by its very nature the rating continues to shift until it matches the current performance.

So in other words you admit exactly what I explained exists but you feel "its never been significant". Sorry opinions aren't how math works.

Reality is the more highly ranked teams only play themselves the more pronounced the feedback loop becomes. By the time players are 16 top teams rarely play teams outside of their closed league.

 

[RandomSoccerFan]

Ha! I knew you'd jump on that. You've been pulling pseudo-math out of the air for years, based on misguided feelings about how you think things should work instead of how they actually work.

If what you're concerned about is a real issue - identify any MLSN teams that are getting a real benefit (in your words, "artificial") in rating from the league they are in, yet when they play out of league the results are so markedly different to materially change their rating/ranking. Which then supposedly changes back again when they go back to playing in the closed league.

 

[Carlsbad7]

Ha! I knew you'd jump on that. You've been pulling pseudo-math out of the air for years, based on misguided feelings about how you think things should work instead of how they actually work.

If what you're concerned about is a real issue - identify any MLSN teams that are getting a real benefit (in your words, "artificial") in rating from the league they are in, yet when they play out of league the results are so markedly different to materially change their rating/ranking. Which then supposedly changes back again when they go back to playing in the closed league.

Only playing highly ranked teams in league doesnt immediately inflate a teams ranking it takes time to occur. Also all teams in the league have to only be playing teams in that league. If one team goes off the reservation and losses it affects everyone else.

 

[Jamisfoes]

Only playing highly ranked teams in league doesnt immediately inflate a teams ranking it takes time to occur. Also all teams in the league have to only be playing teams in that league. If one team goes off the reservation and losses it affects everyone else.

This is exactly what’s happening. Teams in these closed league play most of their games against themselves, even if they lose one game badly against an outsider team, their ranking aren’t affected because there are 9 other games that fits the soccer ranking prediction. It’s like you said a “self fulfilling” prophecy.

 

[shankbone]

No. You continue to misunderstand how the algorithm works, and what it represents. It's not giving bonus points because they think that a team "should" be stronger/ranked better or "should" be weaker/ranked worse. If you want a system like that, head over to GotSport or any of the other BS algorithms that add/subtract points based on feelings. SR figures out the most likely team to win based on prior actual game results. There is no bonus (or penalty) for league, age, gender, or anything else.

Reading this i just picture Office Space - "I deal with the god damn customers so the engineers don't have to. I have people skills. I'm good with dealing with people"

 

[shankbone]

Only playing highly ranked teams in league doesnt immediately inflate a teams ranking it takes time to occur. Also all teams in the league have to only be playing teams in that league. If one team goes off the reservation and losses it affects everyone else.

And this is why they for the most part don't. The example for girls is ECNL teams will play a younger team up so if they lose it's built in excuse.

 

[shankbone]

Its a known issue called a feedback loop or echo chamber. Look it up if you like. Closed leagues with all top clubs participating can artificially inflate their ranking by only playing each other.

This is why I said when different regional leagues play each other in finals things can quickly change. Its because the teams they're playing arent part of the feedback loop so rankings correct. The same thing happens when clubs in the feedback loop play against teams outside the closed league in tournaments.

Maybe US Soccer can take over the ranking app - require teams to actually compete in open tournaments.