Vaccine

[Grace T.]

It's not a which way it cuts thing for me. That's not it. The thing for me is that Occam's razor, since it came up, is as good as far as it goes, but outside of a strict logical construction, as far as it goes isn't very far. You invoked two alternatives, but the non-falsifiable narrative space, like I said, is infinite. Restriction enzyme free cloning designed to mimic natural viral recombination junctions around the S RBD, using sub-optimal primers to leave no G/C bias that the hounds will be sniffing for. I'm not making that up. Bring it to the market and dump it on your racoon dog BBQ plate. Why go to all the trouble to release a low IFR virus? Anything from I don't like Mondays to whatever plot you want to imagine. Doesn't have to be buttercups. Could be black dahlias. Or a bad case of FDS, gain of function murmurings, and a blotter of bad acid. Its the who killed JFK for our times. Maybe Oliver Stone will make a movie.

Occam's Razor, at least in the philosophical realm, is sloppy reasoning. It's easily countered by the possibility postulate (also known as the Laura Flynn Boyle)

Witness: "The dog was happy because it got a treat"
LFB: "But you also walked in at that moment?"
W: "Yes"
LFB: "Is it possible the dog was happy to see you?"
W: "I had just given him his favorite treat. He hadn't eaten all day."
LFB: "That's not what I'm asking you. You've lived with him for years...he's your companion and friend. I'm asking you if he might have been happy to see you when you walked through that door. Is it possible?"
W: "Yes, it is possible".
LFB: "Thank you, no further questions."

 

[espola]

Occam's Razor, at least in the philosophical realm, is sloppy reasoning.

No, it's not.

 

[Grace T.]

LA County is cancelling its absurd new mask mandate. Thank you to all who fought back.

Earlier this week the cities of Pasadena, Beverly Hills, Long Beach, El Segundo, and Manhattan Beach announced they would refuse to enforce Barbara Ferrer’s order. And just moments ago, Ferrer backtracked and cancelled it.

This is the turning point we’ve been working towards. It effectively stops Newsom from issuing another statewide mandate, eager as he might be to do so.

It’s reminiscent of when my home school district, Roseville Joint Union, passed a Resolution to ignore Newsom’s school mask mandate. Neighboring districts followed suit and it snowballed from there; humiliated, Newsom was forced to rescind the order.

It’s also similar to our triumph over his student vaccine mandate. After we stopped Senator Pan’s mandate bill, I called for Newsom to rescind his own Executive Order. Hours later, he did just that – a major embarrassment after months of showcasing the “first in the nation” mandate.

Notably, the current resistance is happening in some of the bluest parts of the state. In Long Beach, Democrats outnumber Republicans 144,000 to 44,000.

*Sign up below and I’ll update you on our fight to end all mandates

LA County cancels mask mandate in face of opposition

JULY 28, 2022 LA County is cancelling its absurd new mask mandate. Thank you to all who fought back. Earlier this week the cities of Pasadena, Beverly Hills, Long Beach, El Segundo, and Manhattan Beach announced they would refuse to enforce Barbara Ferrer's order. And just moments ago, Ferrer...

blog.electkevinkiley.com

The next fight is actually whether schools will reopen at all or with heavy testing requirements still in place.

Ferrer was only willing to commit at the meeting that she's "hopeful that schools will open".

 

[crush]

 

[Lion Eyes]

The next fight is actually whether schools will reopen at all or with heavy testing requirements still in place.

Ferrer was only willing to commit at the meeting that she's "hopeful that schools will open".

Declining enrollment clobbers California’s schools
BY DAN WALTERS APRIL 26, 2022

This month, the state Department of Education reported that for the first time in many years, enrollment had dropped below 6 million.

The slow erosion in enrollment that began a half-decade ago stemmed from demographic factors, such as virtually no growth, or even a decline, in the state’s overall population, lower birthrates and an outflow of people, including children, to other states.

In the last two years, school closures due to COVID-19 accelerated enrollment losses but the resumption of in-classroom instruction did not stem the hemorrhage. “Enrollment is down from 6,002,523 in 2020–21 to 5,892,240 in 2021–22, a decrease of more than 110,000 students and 1.8% from the prior year,” the state Department of Education reported. “ This follows a steady decline in public school enrollment statewide since 2014–15.”

The data trends indicate that the state’s schools will continue to see enrollment declines for the foreseeable future and that creates a financial dilemma for local school districts since the state provides most of their money and aid based on attendance.

https://calmatters.org/commentary/2022/04/declining-enrollment-clobbers-californias-schools/

 

[Kicker 2.0]

LA County is cancelling its absurd new mask mandate. Thank you to all who fought back.

Earlier this week the cities of Pasadena, Beverly Hills, Long Beach, El Segundo, and Manhattan Beach announced they would refuse to enforce Barbara Ferrer’s order. And just moments ago, Ferrer backtracked and cancelled it.

This is the turning point we’ve been working towards. It effectively stops Newsom from issuing another statewide mandate, eager as he might be to do so.

It’s reminiscent of when my home school district, Roseville Joint Union, passed a Resolution to ignore Newsom’s school mask mandate. Neighboring districts followed suit and it snowballed from there; humiliated, Newsom was forced to rescind the order.

It’s also similar to our triumph over his student vaccine mandate. After we stopped Senator Pan’s mandate bill, I called for Newsom to rescind his own Executive Order. Hours later, he did just that – a major embarrassment after months of showcasing the “first in the nation” mandate.

Notably, the current resistance is happening in some of the bluest parts of the state. In Long Beach, Democrats outnumber Republicans 144,000 to 44,000.

*Sign up below and I’ll update you on our fight to end all mandates

LA County cancels mask mandate in face of opposition

JULY 28, 2022 LA County is cancelling its absurd new mask mandate. Thank you to all who fought back. Earlier this week the cities of Pasadena, Beverly Hills, Long Beach, El Segundo, and Manhattan Beach announced they would refuse to enforce Barbara Ferrer's order. And just moments ago, Ferrer...

blog.electkevinkiley.com

Anyone else wondering why Newsom has not giving up his emergency powers yet? He may still have some tricks up his sleeve.

 

[dad4]

The next fight is actually whether schools will reopen at all or with heavy testing requirements still in place.

Ferrer was only willing to commit at the meeting that she's "hopeful that schools will open".

I would be amazed if schools anywhere in CA closed this fall. It would be political suicide.

Any "open schools" announcement requires help from CTA, so they can't commit to it without a union rep in support. But that's different from saying the board is actually thinking of cancelling the first day of school.

 

[EvilGoalie 21]

Occam's Razor, at least in the philosophical realm, is sloppy reasoning. It's easily countered by the possibility postulate (also known as the Laura Flynn Boyle)

Witness: "The dog was happy because it got a treat"
LFB: "But you also walked in at that moment?"
W: "Yes"
LFB: "Is it possible the dog was happy to see you?"
W: "I had just given him his favorite treat. He hadn't eaten all day."
LFB: "That's not what I'm asking you. You've lived with him for years...he's your companion and friend. I'm asking you if he might have been happy to see you when you walked through that door. Is it possible?"
W: "Yes, it is possible".
LFB: "Thank you, no further questions."

What is this "philosophical realm"? Anyway, the whole Occam Razor thing seems to me to be of limited utility. Even narrowly applied, the cynic in me says its a great way to kill a strawman. Remember, you brought it up. The parsimony biscuit can only lead to puppy acting out and exhibiting poor behaviors. IMO, Pavlov would have been the better way to go.

 

[EvilGoalie 21]

Who supplied the data that was used?

For the first paper, which is the least useful one, but has drawn the most media attention, I'm guessing if you put "who" in all caps like Crush that might be close for at least some of it. If you're more serious, the most relevant parts with respect to what you are asking for will be in supplementary files. For the first paper that is here.

Science | AAAS

www.science.org

Underlying methodology for the second paper is here.

Science | AAAS

www.science.org

My point in bringing up these works earlier in the context of Occam's razor (my God, the places we go) is precisely that as origin stories they are non-definitive. No smooth shaves. Switching the metaphor, short of a smoking gun-a term that itself came from the JFK investigation if I have it right-that is how it will always be. But I thought I'd dig the links up for you anyway because it might be a worthwhile excercise to go "my ifs, ands, and buts are such and such". It would be easy to do. These papers could easily be "shot them" down on provenance, limitations of approach, on the merits, etc. And then go, OK, how would I address/prove/or falsify this. Or you could save yourself most of the trouble and read the blurb article from Nature back when the papers were still preprints. Have fun with it.

Wuhan market was epicentre of pandemic’s start, studies suggest

Report authors say that the coronavirus SARS-CoV-2 jumped to people from animals sold at the market on two occasions in late 2019 — but some scientists want more definitive evidence.

www.nature.com

 

[crush]

Well Evil, your boy Biden just test positive for the Rona again. Nancy is in Tawaiin and all military is on high alert. Check out their SM accounts. It's game on!!!

 

[kickingandscreaming]

For the first paper, which is the least useful one, but has drawn the most media attention, I'm guessing if you put "who" in all caps like Crush that might be close for at least some of it. If you're more serious, the most relevant parts with respect to what you are asking for will be in supplementary files. For the first paper that is here.

Science | AAAS

www.science.org

Underlying methodology for the second paper is here.

Science | AAAS

www.science.org

My point in bringing up these works earlier in the context of Occam's razor (my God, the places we go) is precisely that as origin stories they are non-definitive. No smooth shaves. Switching the metaphor, short of a smoking gun-a term that itself came from the JFK investigation if I have it right-that is how it will always be. But I thought I'd dig the links up for you anyway because it might be a worthwhile excercise to go "my ifs, ands, and buts are such and such". It would be easy to do. These papers could easily be "shot them" down on provenance, limitations of approach, on the merits, etc. And then go, OK, how would I address/prove/or falsify this. Or you could save yourself most of the trouble and read the blurb article from Nature back when the papers were still preprints. Have fun with it.

Wuhan market was epicentre of pandemic’s start, studies suggest

Report authors say that the coronavirus SARS-CoV-2 jumped to people from animals sold at the market on two occasions in late 2019 — but some scientists want more definitive evidence.

www.nature.com

I'm curious how the data was obtained. Nothing else matters if the data isn't legitimate. In general, the Chinese government was not willing to allow independent investigations. So, who provided the data? It seems like a simple question. The answer - to steal an @dad4 phrase - appears to be word salad.

 

[crush]

I'm curious how the data was obtained. Nothing else matters if the data isn't legitimate. In general, the Chinese government was not willing to allow independent investigations. So, who provided the data? It seems like a simple question. The answer - to steal an @dad4 phrase - appears to be word salad.

Here is more word salad. Lie lie lie and spin and then lie.

 

[crush]

Gen. Flynn***
"Now that Biden has COVID again & knows he is contagious even after 4 shots, he has absolutely zero moral authority to force a needle into anyone serving in our military, any & all federal employees, absolutely every single medical worker nationwide, & all foreign visitors. It is an outrage that this vax lie continues. Our nation’s security is at the highest risk levels we’ve been at in decades due to the sheer abuse by this WH & THE WEF elites. “We won’t be fooled again

 

[EvilGoalie 21]

I'm curious how the data was obtained. Nothing else matters if the data isn't legitimate. In general, the Chinese government was not willing to allow independent investigations. So, who provided the data? It seems like a simple question. The answer - to steal an @dad4 phrase - appears to be word salad.

The links will tell you where the data came from. But it sounds like you've already answered your own question.

 

[EvilGoalie 21]

Well Evil, your boy Biden just test positive for the Rona again. Nancy is in Tawaiin and all military is on high alert. Check out their SM accounts. It's game on!!!

View attachment 14439

Sounds like capture the flag. Always liked that back in the summer camp days. Bit of a William Golding vibe but no harm done.

 

[kickingandscreaming]

But it sounds like you've already answered your own question.

No, I haven't, but someone posted elsewhere, "Chinese CDC". Is that correct?

 

[Grace T.]

Well Evil, your boy Biden just test positive for the Rona again. Nancy is in Tawaiin and all military is on high alert. Check out their SM accounts. It's game on!!!

View attachment 14439

Anecdotally including Biden I’m aware of no less than 10 bounce back cases on paxlovid. It seems to be quite common. Except for high risk cases (like Biden) they really need to pause it until they can do proper studies on either extending or upping the dose. If you are young and healthy there is zero reason to be on paxlovid and it’s possible we are just encouraging resistance. But they won’t do it because of $$$.

 

[Happened again]

Anecdotally including Biden I’m aware of no less than 10 bounce back cases on paxlovid. It seems to be quite common. Except for high risk cases (like Biden) they really need to pause it until they can do proper studies on either extending or upping the dose. If you are young and healthy there is zero reason to be on paxlovid and it’s possible we are just encouraging resistance. But they won’t do it because of $$$.

It's tricky to prescribe. I suspect many prescribers are cheating a bit, upping dosage ( don't ask, don't tell). We will see if it ever emerges from EUA status - the interaction with so many common drugs is sketchy. The culprit is ritonavir - anytime you you mess with liver enzymes, you mess with a boatload of commonly taken drugs ranging from hormone contraceptives to serious stuff like cholesterol meds, antiarrhythmic medications, etc. Stuff that a guy like Biden may be taking (wink wink). You could weakly argue that vitamins and other supplements mess with liver enzymes as well.

No way anyone does additional studies to determine whether upping the dosage gets rid of the rebound. I love how every headline about biden's rebound makes it seem rebouding is soooo uncommon. It's not, plenty of rebouding going around. Most people just stick out the rebound, wait another 5 days or so, test again then move on with life.

By prescribing paxlovid, it shows how worried they were. It likley did it's job of reducing replication. They could have gone with Merck’s oral antiviral molnupiravir, no known other med interaction but likely decided the effectiveness of Pax (88%) was better than the merck product (30%). Go care team!!

 

[crush]

 

[watfly]

For the first paper, which is the least useful one, but has drawn the most media attention, I'm guessing if you put "who" in all caps like Crush that might be close for at least some of it. If you're more serious, the most relevant parts with respect to what you are asking for will be in supplementary files. For the first paper that is here.

Science | AAAS

www.science.org

Underlying methodology for the second paper is here.

Science | AAAS

www.science.org

My point in bringing up these works earlier in the context of Occam's razor (my God, the places we go) is precisely that as origin stories they are non-definitive. No smooth shaves. Switching the metaphor, short of a smoking gun-a term that itself came from the JFK investigation if I have it right-that is how it will always be. But I thought I'd dig the links up for you anyway because it might be a worthwhile excercise to go "my ifs, ands, and buts are such and such". It would be easy to do. These papers could easily be "shot them" down on provenance, limitations of approach, on the merits, etc. And then go, OK, how would I address/prove/or falsify this. Or you could save yourself most of the trouble and read the blurb article from Nature back when the papers were still preprints. Have fun with it.

Wuhan market was epicentre of pandemic’s start, studies suggest

Report authors say that the coronavirus SARS-CoV-2 jumped to people from animals sold at the market on two occasions in late 2019 — but some scientists want more definitive evidence.

www.nature.com

I read the Nature article and haven't read the studies, but based on all the caveats and qualifiers in the article it sounds like these studies are at best educated guesses. Particularly when they can't trace it to a species let alone a specific infected animal. A bigger knock may be the fact that 2 of the studies came from Scripps which doesnt have any Covid credibility after one of its experts claimed that water activities were dangerous because the virus would be carried by sea air. This falsehood led to policies that closed beaches and ocean activities. Scripps needs to stick with oceanography and avoid virology.

The good news is the pangolin seems to be off the hook. I had predicted it was just scapegoated because it was so ugly. The racoon dog is pretty cute.

At this point we have very little evidence to prove either a lab leak or the wet market source. Personally I doubt that we will ever know definitively since China blocked any timely and open investgation.

One thing Covid has exposed is the low bar that has been set for the definition of science.

 

[espola]

I read the Nature article and haven't read the studies, but based on all the caveats and qualifiers in the article it sounds like these studies are at best educated guesses. Particularly when they can't trace it to a species let alone a specific infected animal. A bigger knock may be the fact that 2 of the studies came from Scripps which doesnt have any Covid credibility after one of its experts claimed that water activities were dangerous because the virus would be carried by sea air. This falsehood led to policies that closed beaches and ocean activities. Scripps needs to stick with oceanography and avoid virology.

The good news is the pangolin seems to be off the hook. I had predicted it was just scapegoated because it was so ugly. The racoon dog is pretty cute.

At this point we have very little evidence to prove either a lab leak or the wet market source. Personally I doubt that we will ever know definitively since China blocked any timely and open investgation.

One thing Covid has exposed is the low bar that has been set for the definition of science.

Nonsense in service of an agenda.