Vaccine

Even for delta R for a masked, vaccinated population is below 1. If the unmasked ad unvaccinated people had been willing to do their part, we would not even have a delta surge.

People are blaming the unmasked and unvaccinated because the unmasked and unvaccinated are causing the current problem. If you don’t like being blamed, the pharmacy will sell you a mask and give you a shot for free. Then you can be part of the solution instead of just making things worse.

Same question to you as espola: what's the current problem?

The Delta Wave?

Cases are not a problem. They are merely a number. If we had a Delta wave purely in the under 12 set would it still be a problem?
 
Even for delta R for a masked, vaccinated population is below 1. If the unmasked ad unvaccinated people had been willing to do their part, we would not even have a delta surge.

People are blaming the unmasked and unvaccinated because the unmasked and unvaccinated are causing the current problem. If you don’t like being blamed, the pharmacy will sell you a mask and give you a shot for free. Then you can be part of the solution instead of just making things worse.
Reminder: The CDC/NIH/Fauci-backed pause of the J&J vaccine did more to invigorate vaccine hesitancy in the US than any other factor.


May be an image of text that says 'Daily COVID-19 vaccine doses administered per 100 people Shown the rolling -day average per 100 people in the total population. For vaccines that require multiple doses, each individual dose is counted. LINEAR LOG Our World in Data Add country 0.8 0.6 J&J Pause 0.4 0.2 United States Dec21,2020 2020 21, Apr 15, 2021 Source: Official data collated by Our World in OurWorldinData.org/coronavirus BY Jun 2021 Sep 4, 2021 Last updated September 2021, 10:30 (London time)''Daily COVID-19 vaccine doses administered per 100 people Shown the rolling -day average per 100 people in the total population. For vaccines that require multiple doses, each individual dose is counted. LINEAR LOG Our World in Data Add country 0.8 0.6 J&J Pause 0.4 0.2 United States Dec21,2020 2020 21, Apr 15, 2021 Source: Official data collated by Our World in OurWorldinData.org/coronavirus BY Jun 2021 Sep 4, 2021 Last updated September 2021, 10:30 (London time)'
 
In the airline case, it's not the adult's fault. They are just bending a rule already put in place (and which BTW is the same situation they see right now with indoor dining). You think it's important not to do theater and to actually mask people, ban food and drinks on airplanes. You think it's important to wear masks indoor in high risk situations, ban indoor dining and bars. You don't wanna though because you know people wouldn't support that, so we're left with theater.
If you choose to bend the rule, then it is your fault.

What happend to the whole notion of personal responsibility? “Yes, I am choosing to ignore the rules, but it’s not my fault. It’s the airlines fault for not kicking my sorry ass off the plane.”
 
Reminder: The CDC/NIH/Fauci-backed pause of the J&J vaccine did more to invigorate vaccine hesitancy in the US than any other factor.


May be an image of text that says 'Daily COVID-19 vaccine doses administered per 100 people Shown the rolling -day average per 100 people in the total population. For vaccines that require multiple doses, each individual dose is counted. LINEAR LOG Our World in Data Add country 0.8 0.6 J&J Pause 0.4 0.2 United States Dec21,2020 2020 21, Apr 15, 2021 Source: Official data collated by Our World in OurWorldinData.org/coronavirus BY Jun 2021 Sep 4, 2021 Last updated September 2021, 10:30 (London time)''Daily COVID-19 vaccine doses administered per 100 people Shown the rolling -day average per 100 people in the total population. For vaccines that require multiple doses, each individual dose is counted. LINEAR LOG Our World in Data Add country 0.8 0.6 J&J Pause 0.4 0.2 United States Dec21,2020 2020 21, Apr 15, 2021 Source: Official data collated by Our World in OurWorldinData.org/coronavirus BY Jun 2021 Sep 4, 2021 Last updated September 2021, 10:30 (London time)''Daily COVID-19 vaccine doses administered per 100 people Shown the rolling -day average per 100 people in the total population. For vaccines that require multiple doses, each individual dose is counted. LINEAR LOG Our World in Data Add country 0.8 0.6 J&J Pause 0.4 0.2 United States Dec21,2020 2020 21, Apr 15, 2021 Source: Official data collated by Our World in OurWorldinData.org/coronavirus BY Jun 2021 Sep 4, 2021 Last updated September 2021, 10:30 (London time)''Daily COVID-19 vaccine doses administered per 100 people Shown the rolling -day average per 100 people in the total population. For vaccines that require multiple doses, each individual dose is counted. LINEAR LOG Our World in Data Add country 0.8 0.6 J&J Pause 0.4 0.2 United States Dec21,2020 2020 21, Apr 15, 2021 Source: Official data collated by Our World in OurWorldinData.org/coronavirus BY Jun 2021 Sep 4, 2021 Last updated September 2021, 10:30 (London time)'
I was so optimistic about the vaccine rollout and poof, it was gone. Also, if Fauci would have pushed for a longer wait between the first and second shots, there would have been more availability for first shots earlier - before the mistake of the J&J Pause.
 
If you choose to bend the rule, then it is your fault.

What happend to the whole notion of personal responsibility? “Yes, I am choosing to ignore the rules, but it’s not my fault. It’s the airlines fault for not kicking my sorry ass off the plane.”

What about ignoring personal liberty and rights to due process that you are advocating. Australia is great this time of year.
 
If you choose to bend the rule, then it is your fault.

What happend to the whole notion of personal responsibility? “Yes, I am choosing to ignore the rules, but it’s not my fault. It’s the airlines fault for not kicking my sorry ass off the plane.”

So is it my responsibility to gobble up my food as quick as possible?
Do I need to be putting my mask up and down between sips?
What if I'm drunk and I get on the plane and fall asleep?
What if I accidentally fall asleep?
What I just take my time eating my meal?
What if everyone on that flight takes their time eating the meal....that have more effect than the handful of 5 year olds without their masks with the big gaping holes on the side?

Again, we've had this argument before. Personal responsibility is all fine and good, but you can't set policy assuming everyone is going to be angels. You have to assume there will be aholes in there.

I told you the story before about the LARP my son and I played at Disneyland and how people reacted to every rule revision by finding creative solutions. People are clever and given a chance to bend (not break) the rule they will take it. But as we've discussed before, while I'm doing policy, you are doing religion
 
Same question to you as espola: what's the current problem?

The Delta Wave?

Cases are not a problem. They are merely a number. If we had a Delta wave purely in the under 12 set would it still be a problem?

Cases are useful not for themselves, but as a leading indicator of hospitalizations and deaths. It’s the hospitalizations and deaths that are the problem.

The three are not decoupled. The ratio has just changed over the long term. But a short term doubling of cases still means you can expect more hospitalizations and deaths, too.
 
The sad truth to all of this is if everyone just got vaccinated the mask stuff wouldn't be nearly as important. Even skipping those under 12. The numbers across the US in hospitals would plummet and security theatre wouldn't really be a reaction. Unfortunately that's not the place we're in.
Not anti-vax, but to be fair, statistically speaking, reducing your BMI and exercising 20/day would have roughly the same impact as the vaccine on “severity of cases” and ICU occupancy.
 
Using terms such as "security theater" really tells us a lot about you.

In reality, mommy was engaging in political theater, and that is all that happened. We know actual facts about what happened, but that gets in the way of anti-maskers and their lies. The actual facts are: (1) the mother admits she had never had her two year old wear a mask before, but decided that the best time to try it out for her allegedly asthmatic two year old would be on an AA flight surrounded by her friends with video cameras; (2) there is an AA policy for addressing issues like this in advance that would have avoided this completely, which mommy admits that she failed to comply with it although she was the only person who knew her kid (allegedly) has asthma and might not be able to wear a mask; (3) mommy took a two year old with an alleged serious respiratory issue maskless into the most crowded building in one of the highest risk counties in the entire U.S.; (4) we know this situation was completely the mommy's fault and could have been avoided because AA immediately rebooked her on another flight and, miracle of miracles, they were able to make it there without incident with kiddy wearing an incident at no cost to mommy. Mommy fails to mention in her monetized social media rant that AA rebooked her on the next flight and, during she and her child were "miraculously" able to comply with AA's rules.

"Strangely", although surrounded by friends and family on the flight, and although they clearly tried very hard to videotape an incident, they showed exactly zero footage of anyone at AA acting inappropriately. They showed exactly zero footage of the "incident" that led to them being deplaned which, as AA explained, really involved mommy and her child not seatbelted and her mother irresponsibly letting the baby lay in the aisle and move around the cabin while taxiing for takeoff and did not involve her indicating in any way that her child was asthmatic or even having trouble breathing. The footage they do show is of a two year old crying (shocking!) but still not wearing his seat belt.

Labeling this "security theater" is what anti-vaxxers and anti-maskers like Grace T. do. The lengths to which she and her friends had to go to reframe terrible parenting like this is impressive.
 
To: The Novel ANTI-IMMUNE SYSTEM MOVEMENT
From: Your MANDATED IMMUNE SYSTEM

… is from George Will’s latest column, titled by the Washington PostPresidential impatience with covid doesn’t excuse wielding extra-constitutional power“; this passage from Will is prompted in part by a remark made recently on CNN by the authoritarian, and appallingly uninformed, Leana Wen:
The word “travel” is not in the Constitution. Neither is the word “bacon,” but we have a right to have bacon for breakfast, and to raise our children. This puzzles people who think rights are privileges — spaces of autonomy — granted by, and revocable by, government. Such thinking paves the road to what some seem to want: a permission society, where what is not explicitly permitted is implicitly forbidden, or at least contingent on the grace of government.
 
So is it my responsibility to gobble up my food as quick as possible?
Do I need to be putting my mask up and down between sips?
What if I'm drunk and I get on the plane and fall asleep?
What if I accidentally fall asleep?
What I just take my time eating my meal?
What if everyone on that flight takes their time eating the meal....that have more effect than the handful of 5 year olds without their masks with the big gaping holes on the side?

Again, we've had this argument before. Personal responsibility is all fine and good, but you can't set policy assuming everyone is going to be angels. You have to assume there will be aholes in there.

I told you the story before about the LARP my son and I played at Disneyland and how people reacted to every rule revision by finding creative solutions. People are clever and given a chance to bend (not break) the rule they will take it.
You are the one who said you did a great job avoiding indoor spaces with other people. Now you’re saying you go on plane trips during covid.

Which is it?
 
In reality, mommy was engaging in political theater, and that is all that happened. We know actual facts about what happened, but that gets in the way of anti-maskers and their lies. The actual facts are: (1) the mother admits she had never had her two year old wear a mask before, but decided that the best time to try it out for her allegedly asthmatic two year old would be on an AA flight surrounded by her friends with video cameras; (2) there is an AA policy for addressing issues like this in advance that would have avoided this completely, which mommy admits that she failed to comply with it although she was the only person who knew her kid (allegedly) has asthma and might not be able to wear a mask; (3) mommy took a two year old with an alleged serious respiratory issue maskless into the most crowded building in one of the highest risk counties in the entire U.S.; (4) we know this situation was completely the mommy's fault and could have been avoided because AA immediately rebooked her on another flight and, miracle of miracles, they were able to make it there without incident with kiddy wearing an incident at no cost to mommy. Mommy fails to mention in her monetized social media rant that AA rebooked her on the next flight and, during she and her child were "miraculously" able to comply with AA's rules.

"Strangely", although surrounded by friends and family on the flight, and although they clearly tried very hard to videotape an incident, they showed exactly zero footage of anyone at AA acting inappropriately. They showed exactly zero footage of the "incident" that led to them being deplaned which, as AA explained, really involved mommy and her child not seatbelted and her mother irresponsibly letting the baby lay in the aisle and move around the cabin while taxiing for takeoff and did not involve her indicating in any way that her child was asthmatic or even having trouble breathing. The footage they do show is of a two year old crying (shocking!) but still not wearing his seat belt.

Labeling this "security theater" is what anti-vaxxers and anti-maskers like Grace T. do. The lengths to which she and her friends had to go to reframe terrible parenting like this is impressive.
From the Tower of Babble
 
Cases are useful not for themselves, but as a leading indicator of hospitalizations and deaths. It’s the hospitalizations and deaths that are the problem.

The three are not decoupled. The ratio has just changed over the long term. But a short term doubling of cases still means you can expect more hospitalizations and deaths, too.


Ah...well then we come to the heart of the matter because I frankly don't see cases as much of a problem. The ratios aren't fixed because it depends on the vaccination rates in the community and the age of the community. Again, a casedemic in a bunch of under 12s is not nearly as much of a problem as an outbreak in an unvaxxed nursing home.
 
Well, it's not just about people doing the right thing. The experts have failed us too: the J&J pause, the reluctance to be frank about the myocarditis risk in mRNA vaccines, the failure to acknowledge or study in depth natural immunity, the waffling on pregnant women, the failure to take seriously the complaints re women's cycles, the mixed messaging about whether vaccines work, the failure to reach out and empathize with minority communities, the prior lies with make people skeptical of the authorities ("masks are better than vaccines", the flip flop on masks, 2 weeks to slow the spread), the fact that Pfizer is the only option available for the under 18, the politicking on boosters and now Biden's EO which will just cause the die hards to dig in their heels and conservatives concerned with the Constitution to sympathize with them. Frankly, given the US skepticism towards authority, and the track record of the experts, I'm frankly surprised to see it as high as it is.

I agree with the approach not looking at a blanket number for the US. I think we also can't look at it at a blanket by age group (and some of those 40-65 which are still somewhat vulnerable have not vaxxed). I think looking at the rates for 20s and unders isn't as useful (at least not with current variants). I think this also leads to the conclusion that places like San Francisco (with high compliance) or Los Angeles and NYC (with a combination of compliance and natural immunity) are also the most over the top with their regulations where they do the least good.

I mean I sort of hear you, but explain why certain areas are more vax'd than others. Why is my county so highly vax'd? What's the difference? I have my suspicions, but I'd love to get your take.
 
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