Vaccine

Grace T. said:
Same question to you as espola: what's the current problem?

The Delta Wave?

Cases are not a problem. They are merely a number. If we had a Delta wave purely in the under 12 set would it still be a problem?
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Cases are useful not for themselves, but as a leading indicator of hospitalizations and deaths. It’s the hospitalizations and deaths that are the problem.

The three are not decoupled. The ratio has just changed over the long term. But a short term doubling of cases still means you can expect more hospitalizations and deaths, too.
 
NorCalDad said:
The sad truth to all of this is if everyone just got vaccinated the mask stuff wouldn't be nearly as important. Even skipping those under 12. The numbers across the US in hospitals would plummet and security theatre wouldn't really be a reaction. Unfortunately that's not the place we're in.
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Not anti-vax, but to be fair, statistically speaking, reducing your BMI and exercising 20/day would have roughly the same impact as the vaccine on “severity of cases” and ICU occupancy.
 
espola said:
Using terms such as "security theater" really tells us a lot about you.
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In reality, mommy was engaging in political theater, and that is all that happened. We know actual facts about what happened, but that gets in the way of anti-maskers and their lies. The actual facts are: (1) the mother admits she had never had her two year old wear a mask before, but decided that the best time to try it out for her allegedly asthmatic two year old would be on an AA flight surrounded by her friends with video cameras; (2) there is an AA policy for addressing issues like this in advance that would have avoided this completely, which mommy admits that she failed to comply with it although she was the only person who knew her kid (allegedly) has asthma and might not be able to wear a mask; (3) mommy took a two year old with an alleged serious respiratory issue maskless into the most crowded building in one of the highest risk counties in the entire U.S.; (4) we know this situation was completely the mommy's fault and could have been avoided because AA immediately rebooked her on another flight and, miracle of miracles, they were able to make it there without incident with kiddy wearing an incident at no cost to mommy. Mommy fails to mention in her monetized social media rant that AA rebooked her on the next flight and, during she and her child were "miraculously" able to comply with AA's rules.

"Strangely", although surrounded by friends and family on the flight, and although they clearly tried very hard to videotape an incident, they showed exactly zero footage of anyone at AA acting inappropriately. They showed exactly zero footage of the "incident" that led to them being deplaned which, as AA explained, really involved mommy and her child not seatbelted and her mother irresponsibly letting the baby lay in the aisle and move around the cabin while taxiing for takeoff and did not involve her indicating in any way that her child was asthmatic or even having trouble breathing. The footage they do show is of a two year old crying (shocking!) but still not wearing his seat belt.

Labeling this "security theater" is what anti-vaxxers and anti-maskers like Grace T. do. The lengths to which she and her friends had to go to reframe terrible parenting like this is impressive.
 
To: The Novel ANTI-IMMUNE SYSTEM MOVEMENT
From: Your MANDATED IMMUNE SYSTEM

… is from George Will’s latest column, titled by the Washington Post “Presidential impatience with covid doesn’t excuse wielding extra-constitutional power“; this passage from Will is prompted in part by a remark made recently on CNN by the authoritarian, and appallingly uninformed, Leana Wen:
The word “travel” is not in the Constitution. Neither is the word “bacon,” but we have a right to have bacon for breakfast, and to raise our children. This puzzles people who think rights are privileges — spaces of autonomy — granted by, and revocable by, government. Such thinking paves the road to what some seem to want: a permission society, where what is not explicitly permitted is implicitly forbidden, or at least contingent on the grace of government.
 
Grace T. said:
So is it my responsibility to gobble up my food as quick as possible?
Do I need to be putting my mask up and down between sips?
What if I'm drunk and I get on the plane and fall asleep?
What if I accidentally fall asleep?
What I just take my time eating my meal?
What if everyone on that flight takes their time eating the meal....that have more effect than the handful of 5 year olds without their masks with the big gaping holes on the side?

Again, we've had this argument before. Personal responsibility is all fine and good, but you can't set policy assuming everyone is going to be angels. You have to assume there will be aholes in there.

I told you the story before about the LARP my son and I played at Disneyland and how people reacted to every rule revision by finding creative solutions. People are clever and given a chance to bend (not break) the rule they will take it.
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You are the one who said you did a great job avoiding indoor spaces with other people. Now you’re saying you go on plane trips during covid.

Which is it?
 
GoldenGate said:
In reality, mommy was engaging in political theater, and that is all that happened. We know actual facts about what happened, but that gets in the way of anti-maskers and their lies. The actual facts are: (1) the mother admits she had never had her two year old wear a mask before, but decided that the best time to try it out for her allegedly asthmatic two year old would be on an AA flight surrounded by her friends with video cameras; (2) there is an AA policy for addressing issues like this in advance that would have avoided this completely, which mommy admits that she failed to comply with it although she was the only person who knew her kid (allegedly) has asthma and might not be able to wear a mask; (3) mommy took a two year old with an alleged serious respiratory issue maskless into the most crowded building in one of the highest risk counties in the entire U.S.; (4) we know this situation was completely the mommy's fault and could have been avoided because AA immediately rebooked her on another flight and, miracle of miracles, they were able to make it there without incident with kiddy wearing an incident at no cost to mommy. Mommy fails to mention in her monetized social media rant that AA rebooked her on the next flight and, during she and her child were "miraculously" able to comply with AA's rules.

"Strangely", although surrounded by friends and family on the flight, and although they clearly tried very hard to videotape an incident, they showed exactly zero footage of anyone at AA acting inappropriately. They showed exactly zero footage of the "incident" that led to them being deplaned which, as AA explained, really involved mommy and her child not seatbelted and her mother irresponsibly letting the baby lay in the aisle and move around the cabin while taxiing for takeoff and did not involve her indicating in any way that her child was asthmatic or even having trouble breathing. The footage they do show is of a two year old crying (shocking!) but still not wearing his seat belt.

Labeling this "security theater" is what anti-vaxxers and anti-maskers like Grace T. do. The lengths to which she and her friends had to go to reframe terrible parenting like this is impressive.
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From the Tower of Babble
 
dad4 said:
Cases are useful not for themselves, but as a leading indicator of hospitalizations and deaths. It’s the hospitalizations and deaths that are the problem.

The three are not decoupled. The ratio has just changed over the long term. But a short term doubling of cases still means you can expect more hospitalizations and deaths, too.
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Ah...well then we come to the heart of the matter because I frankly don't see cases as much of a problem. The ratios aren't fixed because it depends on the vaccination rates in the community and the age of the community. Again, a casedemic in a bunch of under 12s is not nearly as much of a problem as an outbreak in an unvaxxed nursing home.
 
Grace T. said:
Well, it's not just about people doing the right thing. The experts have failed us too: the J&J pause, the reluctance to be frank about the myocarditis risk in mRNA vaccines, the failure to acknowledge or study in depth natural immunity, the waffling on pregnant women, the failure to take seriously the complaints re women's cycles, the mixed messaging about whether vaccines work, the failure to reach out and empathize with minority communities, the prior lies with make people skeptical of the authorities ("masks are better than vaccines", the flip flop on masks, 2 weeks to slow the spread), the fact that Pfizer is the only option available for the under 18, the politicking on boosters and now Biden's EO which will just cause the die hards to dig in their heels and conservatives concerned with the Constitution to sympathize with them. Frankly, given the US skepticism towards authority, and the track record of the experts, I'm frankly surprised to see it as high as it is.

I agree with the approach not looking at a blanket number for the US. I think we also can't look at it at a blanket by age group (and some of those 40-65 which are still somewhat vulnerable have not vaxxed). I think looking at the rates for 20s and unders isn't as useful (at least not with current variants). I think this also leads to the conclusion that places like San Francisco (with high compliance) or Los Angeles and NYC (with a combination of compliance and natural immunity) are also the most over the top with their regulations where they do the least good.
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I mean I sort of hear you, but explain why certain areas are more vax'd than others. Why is my county so highly vax'd? What's the difference? I have my suspicions, but I'd love to get your take.
 
dad4 said:
You are the one who said you did a great job avoiding indoor spaces with other people. Now you’re saying you go on plane trips during covid.

Which is it?
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Pre vaccine I was very careful (despite having had it since 1 kid didn't and my antibody count was low, so I might transmit still). Post vaccine, I don't care. Because: Science TM!
 
Grace T. said:
a. the fact that you put yourself in the "intelligent people" category made me snort. Like how I used the quotes?
b. you still don't know what a strawman is. It's what you questioned directly.
c. you yourself just ducked the issue.
d. again, you pulled another Magoo.
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The strawman is your "You actually claiming the vaccine is working perfectly" I never said that, but I can see how it is necessary to your argument.

I'm trying to be of help, but we don't seem to be m making much progress.
 
NorCalDad said:
I mean I sort of hear you, but explain why certain areas are more vax'd than others. Why is my county so highly vax'd? What's the difference? I have my suspicions, but I'd love to get your take.
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Won't going into that get us into trouble? I mean it's easy to throw the white yokel in North Dakota under the bus.
 
Delta is Dying


An earlier study at the Cleveland Clinic of more than 52,000 health-care workers from December 16, 2020 to May 15, 2021 (just before Delta became dominant in the U.S.) found that both natural immunity and vaccine immunity provide good protection against infections. Not one of the 1,359 previously infected subjects who remained unvaccinated was reinfected. Their risk of infection was no higher than for vaccinated people, whether they were previously infected or uninfected.

Moreover, natural immunity thus far appears to be at least as long-lasting as vaccine immunity. Even before vaccines were widely available, studies indicated that four types of immune memory persist for more than six months after infection. The Cleveland Clinic results suggested that natural immunity provides protection against reinfection for ten or more months, leading the authors to conclude that previously infected Covid-19 patients are “unlikely to benefit” from vaccination. Another study found that convalescent individuals maintained immunologic protection for 12 months without vaccination, though protection could be enhanced by vaccination.

Covid-19 treatments have improved as well. Several versions of monoclonal antibodies have been authorized and are now readily available. These medicines are highly effective at keeping early Covid-19 from progressing, thus decreasing the risk of hospitalization or death by 70 percent to 85 percent, particularly for people at high risk of developing severe disease. Steroids and new, more effective ICU protocols have also led to lower Covid-19 mortality.
 
Grace T. said:
Not saying it's you, but some of the people on the pro-mask/pro-mandate/pro-lockdown side of things don't seem to realize that you guys are essentially scape goating the unvaccinated. Yes, there's a problem with some unvaccinated (particularly those from 30-65 that are clogging up the hospitals). But no, given what's going on with breakthroughs, it's not all the unvaccinated's fault. I know as humans we need someone to blame. We all had our hopes up that this would be over by July 4. Even dad4 proudly proclaimed it would be over in a couple weeks. Now that it's not, we need someone to blame and the unvaxxed are a convenient target.
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I don't actually blame the individuals. I blame the fact that there is even an anti-vaxer movement. I blame the misinformation overload and the grifters on MSM who laid doubt. You know who these people are. You're smart. I don't blame many of these people who haven't gotten vaccinated when they've been inundated with misinformation from sources they've historically trusted.
 
dad4 said:
Even for delta R for a masked, vaccinated population is below 1. If the unmasked ad unvaccinated people had been willing to do their part, we would not even have a delta surge.

People are blaming the unmasked and unvaccinated because the unmasked and unvaccinated are causing the current problem. If you don’t like being blamed, the pharmacy will sell you a mask and give you a shot for free. Then you can be part of the solution instead of just making things worse.
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...and many places will give you a free mask as well.
 
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