Vaccine

[Grace T.]

Yet another writer who can’t get their head around confidence intervals.

The confidence interval for cloth was wide. It included no effect. It included the same reduction as surgical masks.

So, if you insist on the 95% CI, you have to say:

”maybe cloth masks do nothing, and maybe they are every bit as good as surgical. We still don’t know.”

That is not at all satisfying, but it is an accurate description of the CI.

Or, you can go non-scientific and assume the average case: Either cloth and surgical can help, but cloth are only about half as good as surgical.

That’s what I did for personal use. N95 for short term indoor, cloth for outdoors but in person, and try very hard to avoid long term indoor situations.

The cloth for outdoors is the weak point. My guess is that the daily indoor prayer gatherings in Bangladesh placed a heavier burden on filtration, and therefore explain much of the difference between cloth and surgical. But that is only a guess. It may be that the next study shows that cloth are less effective even in outdoor settings, and I end up switching to surgical/N95 entirely.

You are vaccinated!....why at this point are you even wearing a cloth mask outdoors (yeah, I get it's "in person" but that presumably means picking up kiddo at the soccer field or while watching kiddo's game at scrimmage when not required)?
So you are wearing an N95 to the supermarket too?
And avoiding I assume all indoor dining, bars, airtravel, hotels again?

The n95 is an indication that you aren't doing this as a noble thing to control the virus (since this study you've weighted so much in seems to show surgical is sufficient for reducing the risk to others). But that you are doing it because you yourself are scared of catching the virus (even having acknowledge in another post you probably will at some point)?

So what's your personal off ramp? Assume Newsom loses the recall (yeah, I know unlikely) and it's not Meet Kevin and some R makes the mask mandates go largely away. When do you go back to normal personally? Because your behavior doesn't read like the science you've been defending....it reads like fear.

 

[Bruddah IZ]

Yet another writer who can’t get their head around confidence intervals.

The confidence interval for cloth was wide. It included no effect. It included the same reduction as surgical masks.

So, if you insist on the 95% CI, you have to say:

”maybe cloth masks do nothing, and maybe they are every bit as good as surgical. We still don’t know.”

That is not at all satisfying, but it is an accurate description of the CI.

Or, you can go non-scientific and assume the average case: Either cloth and surgical can help, but cloth are only about half as good as surgical.

That’s what I did for personal use. N95 for short term indoor, cloth for outdoors but in person, and try very hard to avoid long term indoor situations.

The cloth for outdoors is the weak point. My guess is that the daily indoor prayer gatherings in Bangladesh placed a heavier burden on filtration, and therefore explain much of the difference between cloth and surgical. But that is only a guess. It may be that the next study shows that cloth are less effective even in outdoor settings, and I end up switching to surgical/N95 entirely.

“The curious task of economics is to demonstrate to men how little they really know about what they imagine they can design.”

― F. A. Hayek, The Fatal Conceit: The Errors of Socialism

 

[Grace T.]

You are vaccinated!....why at this point are you even wearing a cloth mask outdoors (yeah, I get it's "in person" but that presumably means picking up kiddo at the soccer field or while watching kiddo's game at scrimmage when not required)?
So you are wearing an N95 to the supermarket too?
And avoiding I assume all indoor dining, bars, airtravel, hotels again?

The n95 is an indication that you aren't doing this as a noble thing to control the virus (since this study you've weighted so much in seems to show surgical is sufficient for reducing the risk to others). But that you are doing it because you yourself are scared of catching the virus (even having acknowledge in another post you probably will at some point)?

So what's your personal off ramp? Assume Newsom loses the recall (yeah, I know unlikely) and it's not Meet Kevin and some R makes the mask mandates go largely away. When do you go back to normal personally? Because your behavior doesn't read like the science you've been defending....it reads like fear.

p.s. the only place I've used my N95 is an outbound flight through Texas on the way to vacation the Dakotas (didn't want the vacation to get ruined by one of us getting sick and having to quarantine). But other than that, I wouldn't consider using an N95 for anything. My folks...yeah they've used their N95s indoors but they are in their 80s and their risk now is about the same as mine was pre natural immunity/vaccination. Unless you are somehow immunocompromised or just had kids very very late in life...wow man.

 

[dad4]

You are vaccinated!....why at this point are you even wearing a cloth mask outdoors (yeah, I get it's "in person" but that presumably means picking up kiddo at the soccer field or while watching kiddo's game at scrimmage when not required)?
So you are wearing an N95 to the supermarket too?
And avoiding I assume all indoor dining, bars, airtravel, hotels again?

The n95 is an indication that you aren't doing this as a noble thing to control the virus (since this study you've weighted so much in seems to show surgical is sufficient for reducing the risk to others). But that you are doing it because you yourself are scared of catching the virus (even having acknowledge in another post you probably will at some point)?

So what's your personal off ramp? Assume Newsom loses the recall (yeah, I know unlikely) and it's not Meet Kevin and some R makes the mask mandates go largely away. When do you go back to normal personally? Because your behavior doesn't read like the science you've been defending....it reads like fear.

Given what we now know about delta, what are the odds that, if infected, I would spread covid to someone else? Based on Martha’s Vineyard, R for vaccinated people is below 1, but not by much. That is worth reducing, especially if the cost is only a mask.

To me, masking up and getting vaccinated are not about being noble. Masking up and getting vaccinated are the bare minimum for not being an asshole.

 

[Grace T.]

Given what we now know about delta, what are the odds that, if infected, I would spread covid to someone else? Based on Martha’s Vineyard, R for vaccinated people is below 1, but not by much. That is worth reducing, especially if the cost is only a mask.

To me, masking up and getting vaccinated are not about being noble. Masking up and getting vaccinated are the bare minimum for not being an asshole.

I get that part. I take it at face value that you believe that, and even if I disagree with it, I respect your view. That's not the part I'm questioning. Had you said I wear a cloth mask when talking closely with someone outdoors or an N95 in high risk situations like a medical office, hospital or airplane, I'd say cool....here's a guy who practices what he preaches....I can at least admire that.

The parts that I'm questioning is the cloth mask outdoors (o.k. I can kind of see an argument here that even if you are on a soccer field despite what you've said before about cloth masks since they only do very little and can be reused you know why not if you want to be extra courteous to others) but more importantly the n95s in limited indoor situations (like markets). You either believe the Bangladesh study or you don't. You either believe masks work or they don't. You either follow your version of the science or you don't. The N95 at the supermarket is about protecting you....it's behavior which I'd expect from my at risk parents, not someone who says they are healthy. That seems to indicate you are scared and afraid of catching it, because otherwise you'd be fine with the surgical and reserve the N95s for health care workers and people like my folks that need them. I think you said you were back in the classroom too so presumably you are wearing the N95 there too.

Again, what's your off ramp then...when do you stop? What's your personal test?

 

[Kicker4Life]

Given what we now know about delta, what are the odds that, if infected, I would spread covid to someone else? Based on Martha’s Vineyard, R for vaccinated people is below 1, but not by much. That is worth reducing, especially if the cost is only a mask.

To me, masking up and getting vaccinated are not about being noble. Masking up and getting vaccinated are the bare minimum for not being an asshole.

Self righteousness is what makes one an asshole!

PS - I’m not implying you are an asshole

 

[Bruddah IZ]

Given what we now know about delta, what are the odds that, if infected, I would spread covid to someone else? Based on Martha’s Vineyard, R for vaccinated people is below 1, but not by much. That is worth reducing, especially if the cost is only a mask.

To me, masking up and getting vaccinated are not about being noble. Masking up and getting vaccinated are the bare minimum for not being an asshole.

Apparently not.

 

[dad4]

I get that part. I take it at face value that you believe that, and even if I disagree with it, I respect your view. That's not the part I'm questioning. Had you said I wear a cloth mask when talking closely with someone outdoors or an N95 in high risk situations like a medical office, hospital or airplane, I'd say cool....here's a guy who practices what he preaches....I can at least admire that.

The parts that I'm questioning is the cloth mask outdoors (o.k. I can kind of see an argument here that even if you are on a soccer field despite what you've said before about cloth masks since they only do very little and can be reused you know why not if you want to be extra courteous to others) but more importantly the n95s in limited indoor situations (like markets). You either believe the Bangladesh study or you don't. You either believe masks work or they don't. You either follow your version of the science or you don't. The N95 at the supermarket is about protecting you....it's behavior which I'd expect from my at risk parents, not someone who says they are healthy. That seems to indicate you are scared and afraid of catching it, because otherwise you'd be fine with the surgical and reserve the N95s for health care workers and people like my folks that need them. I think you said you were back in the classroom too so presumably you are wearing the N95 there too.

Again, what's your off ramp then...when do you stop? What's your personal test?

It’s not boolean.

I believe cloth masks work against the respiratory cone, but not against indoor ambient buildup. I believe surgical masks work against both, but are only partly effective against indoor buildup. I believe N95 are very effective against both, but hard to wear for long periods.

You can’t reduce this to “masks do or do not work”. That is a ridiculous over simplification.

“Save N95 for health care workers” is outdated. Right now, I’d say “buy domestic N5 to keep US manufacturers in business.”

 

[Bruddah IZ]

It’s not boolean.

I believe cloth masks work against the respiratory cone, but not against indoor ambient buildup. I believe surgical masks work against both, but are only partly effective against indoor buildup. I believe N95 are very effective against both, but hard to wear for long periods.

You can’t reduce this to “masks do or do not work”. That is a ridiculous over simplification.

“Save N95 for health care workers” is outdated. Right now, I’d say “buy domestic N5 to keep US manufacturers in business.”

“The curious task of economics is to demonstrate to men how little they really know about what they imagine they can design.”

― F. A. Hayek, The Fatal Conceit: The Errors of Socialism

 

[dad4]

Self righteousness is what makes one an asshole!

PS - I’m not implying you are an asshole

Each of us has some set of things we do so that, when we look in the mirror, we like who we see.

That’s not self-righteousness. It’s just each person finding their own path to being a decent human being.

 

[Grace T.]

It’s not boolean.

I believe cloth masks work against the respiratory cone, but not against indoor ambient buildup. I believe surgical masks work against both, but are only partly effective against indoor buildup. I believe N95 are very effective against both, but hard to wear for long periods.

You can’t reduce this to “masks do or do not work”. That is a ridiculous over simplification.

“Save N95 for health care workers” is outdated. Right now, I’d say “buy domestic N5 to keep US manufacturers in business.”

You are trying to rationalize the behavior. You've said masks work....a surgical should be sufficient to protect others particuarly as you of all people are concerned about others enough not to go out if you feel unwell, are vaccinated, and get tested...an N95 is about trying to protect yourself.

You still can't buy an N95 easily on amazon. You can get a KN95 but not an N95. The few that are available are ridiculously priced at $30+ for a 20 pack. By buying the N95 you are just driving up prices for those that need it since we aren't at price equilibrium yet where they are readily available and affordable to anyone who wants one.

 

[Grace T.]

You are trying to rationalize the behavior. You've said masks work....a surgical should be sufficient to protect others particuarly as you of all people are concerned about others enough not to go out if you feel unwell, are vaccinated, and get tested...an N95 is about trying to protect yourself.

You still can't buy an N95 easily on amazon. You can get a KN95 but not an N95. The few that are available are ridiculously priced at $30+ for a 20 pack. By buying the N95 you are just driving up prices for those that need it since we aren't at price equilibrium yet where they are readily available and affordable to anyone who wants one.

I'm just pointing out there's a disconnect between your behavior and what you say about the science. They aren't aligned. Either you are at it's a good idea for everyone to wear at KN or N 95 to prevent the spread, or you are at surgical masks work at it should be sufficient

 

[dad4]

You are trying to rationalize the behavior. You've said masks work....a surgical should be sufficient to protect others particuarly as you of all people are concerned about others enough not to go out if you feel unwell, are vaccinated, and get tested...an N95 is about trying to protect yourself.

You still can't buy an N95 easily on amazon. You can get a KN95 but not an N95. The few that are available are ridiculously priced at $30+ for a 20 pack. By buying the N95 you are just driving up prices for those that need it since we aren't at price equilibrium yet where they are readily available and affordable to anyone who wants one.

Demetech has plenty of N95 masks for sale.

N95 Respirator Masks

shop.demetech.us

Made in USA.

More expensive than the Chinese ones, but I don’t really trust China to help us out during the next crisis. I’d rather pay extra and help an American.

 

[Grace T.]

It was only a matter of time, but some in the prolockdowners are back to mask outdoors for everyone. as I said, they were never going to stop at just mask indoors.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1435985562918346757

 

[Grace T.]

Demetech has plenty of N95 masks for sale.

N95 Respirator Masks

shop.demetech.us

Made in USA.

More expensive than the Chinese ones, but I don’t really trust China to help us out during the next crisis. I’d rather pay extra and help an American.

Ouch...$75 for a box of 20 hybrid N95s/Kn95...over $85 for a real N95?!?!?. Again you miss the point. If you are concerned about other people, you'd forgo driving up the price for these for people that actually need them. There's plenty of market from the governments and hospitals using them to keep the manufacturers afloat. The n95 is about you. It's not about you caring about other people since you are a low risk spreader and N95s are more about protecting yourself. You either believe the surgicals work (in which case you are a prime candidate for them) or you don't.

 

[Desert Hound]

That’s what I did for personal use. N95 for short term indoor, cloth for outdoors but in person, and try very hard to avoid long term indoor situations.

As you said a couple of months ago you have a phobia.

The above sentence highlights your phobia.

Based on what you have posted here over the months...

You are fairly young
You are fairly healthy
You are vaxxed.

So that combo of factors means you don't need to be paranoid. You don't need to run around wearing masks. You are fine and will be fine.

 

[Desert Hound]

....it reads like fear.

I don't know if you read one of his posts...but in a moment of clarity he admitted he had a phobia about covid.

I know you don't need to look up what people do when they have phobias.

 

[dad4]

Ouch...$75 for a box of 20 hybrid N95s/Kn95...over $85 for a real N95?!?!?. Again you miss the point. If you are concerned about other people, you'd forgo driving up the price for these for people that actually need them. There's plenty of market from the governments and hospitals using them to keep the manufacturers afloat. The n95 is about you. It's not about you caring about other people since you are a low risk spreader and N95s are more about protecting yourself. You either believe the surgicals work (in which case you are a prime candidate for them) or you don't.

You'd rather buy all our PPE from China?

When President Pooh-Bear eventually releases a bioweapon on purpose, I don't he's going to be willing to allow PPE exports.

 

[Grace T.]

As you said a couple of months ago you have a phobia.

The above sentence highlights your phobia.

Based on what you have posted here over the months...

You are fairly young
You are fairly healthy
You are vaxxed.

So that combo of factors means you don't need to be paranoid. You don't need to run around wearing masks. You are fine and will be fine.

At a minimum not an N95. Everything else can be explained away with effort but not that, at least not if you believe surgical masks actually work.

 

[Grace T.]

You'd rather buy all our PPE from China?

When President Pooh-Bear eventually releases a bioweapon on purpose, I don't he's going to be willing to allow PPE exports.

I agree with you the US should going forward have a PPE subsidy for manufacturers going forward. You and I agreed that it would have been a good idea to do that at the start. At the current time, though, price equilibrium has not been reached (not at $80) and the masks aren't readily available to everyone that wants one (only the well off willing to pay a premium for them).

But again you don't get to build the world you wish existed...you can only behave in reaction to this world. You are courteous (you wouldn't go out sick), you are vaccinated, you are tested. You are very low risk to infect others through asymptomatic spread. The N95s right now primarily serve the function of protecting you...the studies you cite say surgicals are good to protecting others...one more N95 mask out there doesn't do a whole lot to protect a supermarket, especially someone who is as courteous as you. What it does do it drives the price up for people that actually need them.

When you can go out and buy a 40 pack of N95s for $20 on Amazon through a large retailer (instead of a hoarder) like I did prepandemic, have at it. Otherwise you are just being selfish when others need those more. Should you be able to get one including a US manufacturer? Yes, I agree you should, but we aren't in that world.