Bad News Thread

[Grace T.]

But where does that skepticism come from?

When doctors tell us that aspirin thins your blood, we don‘t normally get on the internet to say “no it doesn’t.”. We don’t grind up an aspirin, mix it in a bowl of pigs blood, and post the video on you tube. Mostly, we trust that the aspirin researchers know their stuff.

The skepticism was the result of the unwillingness, not the other way around.

a. a lot of the advice is being rendered on an emergency basis and is the experts guessing...it's not settled science.
b. a lot of the advice was corrupted by politics....namely orange man bad. Where the public health experts lost people was when they decried the outside and car worship services, but then said the BLM protests were important enough that they overrode COVID concerns. That's the moment things really started to go off the rails and it was clear we weren't all in this together (it just depended on what your definition of "essential" was and something was "essential" for everyone).
c. adding to the concerns is that there's been a lot of self-censorship amount the expert community...mostly notably you see it in the suppression of the Chinese lab leak theory but you've also seen into in research onto other topics that deal with the orthodoxy whether masks or treatments.
d. The experts have been wrong an awful lot...again they are/were guessing.
e. The experts overturned all their years of planning for an airborne pandemic and instead went with what China recommended. Also didn't help.
f. Whether you take an asprin (or bleach) is very different than if you lock up health people, deprived them of their livelihood, deprive their children of an education and deprive them of their liberty.

So no, trust the experts doesn't really work in this situation. Again, it happened in 2008 (and in 2001 with the security experts believing such an attack was not possible and then with the Iraq invasion). The expert class doesn't have a very good track record recently when it comes to big ticket issues, in part because they've walled themselves off into a group think meritocracy.

 

[Bruddah IZ]

But where does that skepticism come from?

When doctors tell us that aspirin thins your blood, we don‘t normally get on the internet to say “no it doesn’t.”. We don’t grind up an aspirin, mix it in a bowl of pigs blood, and post the video on you tube. Mostly, we trust that the aspirin researchers know their stuff.

The skepticism was the result of the unwillingness, not the other way around.

Nonsense

 

[watfly]

But where does that skepticism come from?

When doctors tell us that aspirin thins your blood, we don‘t normally get on the internet to say “no it doesn’t.”. We don’t grind up an aspirin, mix it in a bowl of pigs blood, and post the video on you tube. Mostly, we trust that the aspirin researchers know their stuff.

The skepticism was the result of the unwillingness, not the other way around.

For me the skepticism comes from a number of factors. First off, is the early mixed messaging and the pre-pandemic studies in regards to masks. 2nd skepticism is mask material and proper usage (ie usage outside of a clinical setting) The light switch manner in which masks suddenly became effective raised suspicion. The weight that that masks were given didn't add up and I felt was dangerous when more effective protections were given a back seat. Masks seemed more safety theatre than effective. Mostly though, I'm just a born skeptic. You have to show me, not tell me.

Were you not skeptical of the vaccine to some extent? It seemed to me you were vaccinated months after it was available to you? I got my vaccine as soon as I had the opportunity. I was less skeptical of vaccines because we have a long history of success with vaccines, and while it was new it seemed like it went through rigorous testing. Maybe I should have been more skeptical since it was so new. At some point we all make a leap of faith.

Maybe one way to sum it up is that masks have a short history of inconsistent science, whereas vaccines do not.

 

[kickingandscreaming]

I'm not responsible for protecting people against themselves.

Distance and outdoors are far more effective than masks anyway.

These two sentences probably would have saved me 75% of the posts I have made here.

You know, @dad4 asks what can be done? I believe he underestimated the power of leading by example and being gracious and accepting of others who decide to take a different path. In a free society, forcing people to do things almost always backfires - if not in the short term, in the long term.

 

[watfly]

These two sentences probably would have saved me 75% of the posts I have made here.

You know, @dad4 asks what can be done? I believe he underestimated the power of leading by example and being gracious and accepting of others who decide to take a different path. In a free society, forcing people to do things almost always backfires - if not in the short term, in the long term.

As best as I can tell, Dad4 equates mask skepticism with reckless behavior, because he believes it leads to people not wearing masks or influencing others not to wear masks. Well regardless of how you felt about masks, you weren't really going out in public without wearing one. So you're were likely safer not going out in public anyway. Between obey and educate, I think educate is the better option. Skepticism is healthy.

 

[crush]

As best as I can tell, Dad4 equates mask skepticism with reckless behavior, because he believes it leads to people not wearing masks or influencing others not to wear masks. Well regardless of how you felt about masks, you weren't really going out in public without wearing one. So you're were likely safer not going out in public anyway. Between obey and educate, I think educate is the better option. Skepticism is healthy.

I complained a lot for mask wearing but I always did. Today, no one is checking nothing. We're free in the OC. My only concern is the new Delta strain coming with the 4th wave out of wherever.

 

[Grace T.]

From blood donor supply, seroprevalence in the US as of March 21 was some tenths of a percentage point under 50% from vaccination and natural immunity, the vast majority of that from natural immunity.

I agree with dad4, it's probably not enough even with vaccinations and infections after March 7 or so (since it takes a few weeks for antibodies to show up) it's not enough with the Delta variant to forestall a fall/winter wave in some parts of the country (particularly since the Delta has seemed to have broken through at least in some % of cases in India through natural immunity) but barring some additional variant those waves may only be regional and quite small or non existent in some parts of the country with high infection/high vaccination (like Los Angeles or New York).

He makes a point dad4 will like that masks probably forestalled the collapse of the hospital system. It also supports, though, that NPIs should have been limited to situations where the hospital systems were in danger of collapse.

 

[Multi Sport]

I complained a lot for mask wearing but I always did. Today, no one is checking nothing. We're free in the OC. My only concern is the new Delta strain coming with the 4th wave out of wherever.

Well you weren't at the Block in Orange then. Adidas store still requiring mask. I think they were the only one.

 

[Grace T.]

Seroprevalence among blood donors in India is at 63% late April-early may (before the big wave crested and up from 46% in January). Even correcting for blood donations tend to run younger and healthier (and therefore out and about) it’s a huge number. Delhi was at 52% in January and is at 78% April-early may. Either there is something really wrong with the antibody collection methods or the herd immunity threshold with the delta is very very high.

 

[N00B]

Seroprevalence among blood donors in India is at 63% late April-early may (before the big wave crested and up from 46% in January). Even correcting for blood donations tend to run younger and healthier (and therefore out and about) it’s a huge number. Delhi was at 52% in January and is at 78% April-early may. Either there is something really wrong with the antibody collection methods or the herd immunity threshold with the delta is very very high.

Or… the likely blood donor profile doesn’t directly correlate with the general population in terms of exposure rate. Younger folks tend to work more front line/essential jobs so the percentage of seroprevalence is not reflective or predictive of the general population. Also they were not prioritized during the vaccination roll out as they are less vulnerable to negative outcomes.

 

[dad4]

Seroprevalence among blood donors in India is at 63% late April-early may (before the big wave crested and up from 46% in January). Even correcting for blood donations tend to run younger and healthier (and therefore out and about) it’s a huge number. Delhi was at 52% in January and is at 78% April-early may. Either there is something really wrong with the antibody collection methods or the herd immunity threshold with the delta is very very high.

Delta is very high transmissibility. Almost twice as high as Alpha, which was considerably higher than the original variant.

That means the herd immunity threshold will be considerably higher, as well. If original reached herd immunity at 70%, Delta may be more like 90.

Lower that for any NPI, but it goes right back up when you drop the NPI.

 

[Grace T.]

Delta is very high transmissibility. Almost twice as high as Alpha, which was considerably higher than the original variant.

That means the herd immunity threshold will be considerably higher, as well. If original reached herd immunity at 70%, Delta may be more like 90.

Lower that for any NPI, but it goes right back up when you drop the NPI.

We actually agree for a change (though we probably disagree on the % effects of the NPI no doubt). The other thing about the Delta is anecdotal evidence suggest some portion of the Alpha is getting reinfected...no idea what %.

 

[Grace T.]

Or… the likely blood donor profile doesn’t directly correlate with the general population in terms of exposure rate. Younger folks tend to work more front line/essential jobs so the percentage of seroprevalence is not reflective or predictive of the general population. Also they were not prioritized during the vaccination roll out as they are less vulnerable to negative outcomes.

Agree but here's the rebuttal. They measured children too (which aren't blood donors and in India have been out of school for many months). The correction was 10%. They also measured blood tests for the general population (which tend to run sicker)....the correction was only 5%. As for vaccination, the seroprevalence studies would pick up vaccine antibodies too and in India (because of it's huge size), IIRC at the time period the vaccination rate wasn't even at 2%

 

[Grace T.]

This is a pretty good summary of where I think we stand economically post pandemic. A lot of this was unavoidable NPIs or not...but a lot of it was caused by the government interventions to support the economy. I agree with the 2 big conclusions in the video: the inflationary threat is not transitory and the supply shocks (including to labor) will carry on for several years. There's a 3rd item building which isn't mentioned which is there's still a lot of weakness in the small business environment despite reopenings and the fear index survey among small businesses show several are in danger of tipping over this summer particularly if the inflationary pressures continue and particularly in the important economy blue states. Think there's a real stagflation danger here, or in the alternate, severe inflationary event. The experts might be asleep at the wheel again (or as the guy implies in the video just want to protect the billionaires and their stock market investments)

 

[Grace T.]

Here's a good explanation of why the supply shocks are ongoing despite COVID relaxation.

 

[Multi Sport]

For one, “I like the numbers being where they are. I don't need to have the numbers double because of one ship that wasn't our fault," Trump said in a Fox News interview.

Your MO hasn't changed a bit... talk yourself into a corner then lay low because you know you put your foot in your mouth.

Same old Rat Boy... drunk and stupid.

 

[kickingandscreaming]

I complained a lot for mask wearing but I always did. Today, no one is checking nothing. We're free in the OC. My only concern is the new Delta strain coming with the 4th wave out of wherever.

I have had interesting experiences since the changes. I frequent a Whole Foods and a Peets that are next to each other. I forgot Tuesday that masks might no longer be required. I walked into Peets with my mask - all the workers inside had a mask, but no other customers were present - picked up my to-go order and walked out. As I walked out, I realized the normal signage and sign stand outside the door were missing. That's when it hit me that Tuesday was the day. Wednesday when I walked in I saw a sign (may have been there Tuesday) that stated if you are vaccinated and symptom-free, you don't need to wear a mask. I walked in without my mask, the barista (masked as all workers were) said, "Oh, <K&S> it's nice to see your face." I thanked her, we exchanged pleasantries and I walked out. As I walked into the WF, I noticed no signs regarding mask policy - just a sign with some generic "safety protocols". I walked in without my mask. All workers were masked and every shopper was also masked - I probably saw 8 or so people. I put on my mask after a minute or so. I wasn't in the store for more than 3-4 minutes. Yesterday I went into Peets unmasked and the same barista had her mask down around her chin. With a good-natured smile, she stated, "I feel like I'm ready to tear this thing off." We talked briefly about how it is nice to see people's smiles when interacting.

 

[crush]

19-Year-Old College Freshman Dies From Heart Problem One Month After Second Dose of Moderna Vaccine
Simone Scott underwent a heart transplant one month after developing what her doctors believe was myocarditis following her second dose of Moderna. She received the second vaccine May 1 and died June 11.

 

[crush]

I have had interesting experiences since the changes. I frequent a Whole Foods and a Peets that are next to each other. I forgot Tuesday that masks might no longer be required. I walked into Peets with my mask - all the workers inside had a mask, but no other customers were present - picked up my to-go order and walked out. As I walked out, I realized the normal signage and sign stand outside the door were missing. That's when it hit me that Tuesday was the day. Wednesday when I walked in I saw a sign (may have been there Tuesday) that stated if you are vaccinated and symptom-free, you don't need to wear a mask. I walked in without my mask, the barista (masked as all workers were) said, "Oh, <K&S> it's nice to see your face." I thanked her, we exchanged pleasantries and I walked out. As I walked into the WF, I noticed no signs regarding mask policy - just a sign with some generic "safety protocols". I walked in without my mask. All workers were masked and every shopper was also masked - I probably saw 8 or so people. I put on my mask after a minute or so. I wasn't in the store for more than 3-4 minutes. Yesterday I went into Peets unmasked and the same barista had her mask down around her chin. With a good-natured smile, she stated, "I feel like I'm ready to tear this thing off." We talked briefly about how it is nice to see people's smiles when interacting.

Have a cup of Joe on me bro. FYI, I'm drinking coffee again I told my wife I tried but I want ((not need)) my coffee.

 

[espola]

I have had interesting experiences since the changes. I frequent a Whole Foods and a Peets that are next to each other. I forgot Tuesday that masks might no longer be required. I walked into Peets with my mask - all the workers inside had a mask, but no other customers were present - picked up my to-go order and walked out. As I walked out, I realized the normal signage and sign stand outside the door were missing. That's when it hit me that Tuesday was the day. Wednesday when I walked in I saw a sign (may have been there Tuesday) that stated if you are vaccinated and symptom-free, you don't need to wear a mask. I walked in without my mask, the barista (masked as all workers were) said, "Oh, <K&S> it's nice to see your face." I thanked her, we exchanged pleasantries and I walked out. As I walked into the WF, I noticed no signs regarding mask policy - just a sign with some generic "safety protocols". I walked in without my mask. All workers were masked and every shopper was also masked - I probably saw 8 or so people. I put on my mask after a minute or so. I wasn't in the store for more than 3-4 minutes. Yesterday I went into Peets unmasked and the same barista had her mask down around her chin. With a good-natured smile, she stated, "I feel like I'm ready to tear this thing off." We talked briefly about how it is nice to see people's smiles when interacting.

Rancho San Diego branch of County Library yesterday -- I remembered my mask and had it in my back pocket. As I approached the door, a couple of patrons exiting were masked. The sign in the entry said mask not needed if vaccinated, so I continued in. The first three people I saw were staffers - all masked - who smiled (I think) and said "Good afternoon". About half the patrons inside were marked, but the two entering as I was leaving were not.

 

[crush]

Rancho San Diego branch of County Library yesterday -- I remembered my mask and had it in my back pocket. As I approached the door, a couple of patrons exiting were masked. The sign in the entry said mask not needed if vaccinated, so I continued in. The first three people I saw were staffers - all masked - who smiled (I think) and said "Good afternoon". About half the patrons inside were marked, but the two entering as I was leaving were not.

Great work Espola. The fact were even talking about all this is insane!!! Seriously, this is what it's come down to? For reals? I'm Coo Coo for Co Co puffs!!!