Bad News Thread

If ASU has a large unvaccinated contingent this fall, that gives us a useful test case for Delta.

How fast does Delta spread through the dorms when only 50% of students are vaccinated? Guess we find out in August. Large number of students, together inside sharing the AC.

It gives the rest of us a good data point before winter hits. Similar to Arizona's ground breaking data collection experiment last August.
Kind of like LA's groundbreaking data collection on the futility of NPI's with their variant?
 
Yeah, we can also see how many hospitalizations and deaths are in this age group. Will be interesting.
As of now...almost a year and a half into this we see the following:

Under the age of 29 there have been 2700 deaths total.

So there isn't any worry in this age group.

By the way starting last August ASU had students living in dorms that were full. Can you guess what didn't happen? They even had the AC going too. Any guesses as to what didn't happen?

Trick question. Nothing.

Now going into this year you have a substantial portion of the student body vaccinated. I don't think it is much of a stretch to say as The Who did one time..."The Kids Are Alright"

Continue on @dad4
 
Kind of like LA's groundbreaking data collection on the futility of NPI's with their variant?
Are you arguing that LA would have looked better with open indoor dining and no mask rule?

I do agree that the outdoor activity restrictions were counterproductive.

I don't see any similar argument for opening indoor dining last winter. That would have been a very bad decision.
 
As of now...almost a year and a half into this we see the following:

Under the age of 29 there have been 2700 deaths total.

So there isn't any worry in this age group.

By the way starting last August ASU had students living in dorms that were full. Can you guess what didn't happen? They even had the AC going too. Any guesses as to what didn't happen?

Trick question. Nothing.

Now going into this year you have a substantial portion of the student body vaccinated. I don't think it is much of a stretch to say as The Who did one time..."The Kids Are Alright"

Continue on @dad4
Arizona has the highest covid death rate west of the Mississippi. How are you sure none of those 17,000 deaths were linked to a case spike on campus? That is a very difficult argument to make convincingly.

Simpler to say that Arizona's covid containment efforts were a complete train wreck, and should not be repeated.
 
How about from William Jennings Bryan?

He saw inflation as a transfer from rich to poor, and deflation as a transfer from poor to rich. Free silver, cross of gold, and all that.

He was right, at the time.

We have to recognize the two common definitions of "inflation" --Do we mean an increase in the money supply (as free silver advocates such as Bryan wanted)? Or the upward measures of the Consumer Price Index (the "inflation" most people encounter (unless they are silver miners))? The first mathematically likely leads to the second (if we accept economics as mathematically sound) but I think the idea in Bryan's time is that fixed-asset debts (such as mortgages) could be paid off in inflated and thus less valuable money in the future. Good for debtors, bad for mortgage holders.

Of course, all that assumes that the debtor would be in a situation where he could obtain the cheaper money and not already knocked out by unemployment or bankruptcy.
 
The real question is how many elderly and middle aged people get sick because of exposure to infected youth. Think nurses and waitresses.

We can't really predict much until we know whether Delta breakthrough infections are common or severe.

This is why it is thoughtful of Arizona to run the experiment for us. It lets the upper Midwest know what to expect in October/November.

Don't forget middle-aged math professors - or are they already all vaccinated?
 
Don't forget middle-aged math professors - or are they already all vaccinated?
Mathematicians are an amazingly intelligent and scientifically minded group. I’m sure they all got vaccinated months ago.

unless they were working on a really cool proof. then maybe not.
 
Of course, all that assumes that the debtor would be in a situation where he could obtain the cheaper money and not already knocked out by unemployment or bankruptcy.

The largest debt holder I can think of is the government. Inflation is in many ways their friend.

It reduces the relative cost (value in today’s dollars borrowed) of repaying the National Debt with less valuable units of currency.

In this particular cycle, with labor shortages and the associated wage increases (minimum wage policies, unemployment boosts, increased cost of hiring or retaining employees, etc). The wage component may keep up or stay close to the cost increases. Maybe not, but it seems some wage increases are baked into the cake at this point even if not yet in practice in the workplace.

Either way the revenue from taxes should go up (taxation on a higher cumulative income) while the value of the payback of debt decreases at the same time. As a bonus, politicians can tout ‘rise in worker incomes’ while taking a larger relative portion of the value of their labor.
 
The largest debt holder I can think of is the government. Inflation is in many ways their friend.

It reduces the relative cost (value in today’s dollars borrowed) of repaying the National Debt with less valuable units of currency.

In this particular cycle, with labor shortages and the associated wage increases (minimum wage policies, unemployment boosts, increased cost of hiring or retaining employees, etc). The wage component may keep up or stay close to the cost increases. Maybe not, but it seems some wage increases are baked into the cake at this point even if not yet in practice in the workplace.

Either way the revenue from taxes should go up (taxation on a higher cumulative income) while the value of the payback of debt decreases at the same time. As a bonus, politicians can tout ‘rise in worker incomes’ while taking a larger relative portion of the value of their labor.

I remember being zapped for not paying my Alternative Minimum Tax once at a time when I didn't even know that was a thing. It's hard for me to believe that there couldn't be some mechanism like that to raise money.
 
I prefer discussion to echo chambers.

Expounding on that point, this forum is basically a discussion that became an argument. (Not that unusual in an online forum) You may be able to discuss things in a forum setting and occasionally convince others to adopt your viewpoint… What I’ve never seen is the value of argument in lieu of discussion in an online forum. Personal attacks don’t ever add value to a the viewpoint you’re expressing.
 
More than 11,000 new cases of the disease were reported on Thursday, along with 19 deaths, according to the Department Health. A study by Public Health England showed infection rates increasing across all age groups, but are highest among people aged 20 to 29. Separately, the government said eight in 10 adults have now had their first vaccine dose.
 
This is bad...

Put in perspective. The current uk wave even with yesterday’s spike is still below spring 2020. Also guess Fauci was right about insisting on the 2 shots instead of just rolling out 1 to everyone. And it’s still confines to mostly the young

on the other hand there’s still the likely possibility in the us of a fall wave particularly unvaccinated areas and question whether the collapse of the j&j vaccine might have been in retrospect a good thing.
 
Put in perspective. The current uk wave even with yesterday’s spike is still below spring 2020. Also guess Fauci was right about insisting on the 2 shots instead of just rolling out 1 to everyone. And it’s still confines to mostly the young

on the other hand there’s still the likely possibility in the us of a fall wave particularly unvaccinated areas and question whether the collapse of the j&j vaccine might have been in retrospect a good thing.
First, they said everyone needs the shots from Wuhan Bat Lab. Then they said, "free donuts, $70 gift or a chance to win $1,000,000. All you have to do is get your damn Wuhan shots, now!!! Then, we have the folks like me and my wife who will always be 100% a big fat, "never!!" So, we will be left out and labeled rebellious and will not be allowed service, no card, no service. The same assholes who got all mad in 2016 and cheated big time in 2020 are now demanding two classes like they always have demanded. Total losers and Karma is taking them out as I speak. Oh boy, I can;t wait!!!

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