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[messy]

... seems like your answer to a perceived bed capacity issue is to follow NY and "completely shut down and be scared." To which I find completely unacceptable and completely unAmerican.

You're welcome to completely stay home and be completely scared... but if it's all the same to you, I'll go with Land of the Free and Home of the Brave.

We band together in crisis.
That’s what Americans do.
We sacrifice to defeat the enemy.
Refusal to sacrifice is un-American.
Wear your mask and socially distance.

 

[dad4]

How about we start with back east. The hardest hit. They assumed they would run out of beds. They didn't. Why do you assume that in Cal it will be different and Cal will run out?

Still dont want to talk about your own state?

We dont need to ask whether unrestricted opening is a good idea. Arizona was kind enough to run the experiment for us. Cases shot up, followed by hospitalizations and deaths. AZ is now within 10% of running out of ICU space. Thanks for the data, but we don't need to copy your plan.

I wish we could try the experiment where 100% of us wash our hands, skip parties, and wear masks.

 

[MacDre]

I don't believe I ever used the term running out of beds. I have always come at this by saying capacity issues. I used licensed bed as the basis. Of course there is the ability to expand the number of beds and FEMA is working on it right now. There is a 1,000 bed ship parked in San Diego right now and I know Fresno County who is experiencing the same issues is making plans to use their Convention Center. I have not heard anything from OC Health of what plans they have which now is the time they should be planning for it. I have watched press conferences with OC health and I am very scared. The leadership for LA Health is the bomb and is on top of everything. OC Health....they are a disaster waiting to happen.

Any way, like I said, we reach capacity of licensed beds in August if we keep increasing at the weekly rate we have been increasing for the last few weeks. The State seemed to realize this too which is why they pulled back on some openings and put enforcement in place. Hopefully these steps put in place slows the spread down thus slowing down hospitalizations and not requiring further levels of shut downs.

What is the reasonable # of beds that can be added? IDK because no one is reporting that. Considering counties from Central Cal on down are experiencing exponential weekly growth in hospitalizations, can we count on other counties and who gets that 1000 bed ship and how fast does it fill up. If we only get the hospitalization increase rate down to only 20% increase a week instead of 30% or more that we have been running, that gets us a few extra weeks and the reality is OC alone would need an additional 1,200 more beds per week. New York was able to deal with capacity issues because they completely shut down and New Yorkers were scared.

The point is, expect additional levels of shut down if we don't flatten the hospital bed increase percentage from week to week. I am expecting some level of flattening over the coming weeks from the recent mandates but the question remains will it be enough.

Also, as was explained to me from someone from FEMA, you can convert a certain amount of hospital beds to ICU beds if you have the proper equipment and the ICU trained staff. I see the shortage of ICU trained staff has been the problem in Arizona and Texas. They have been flying them in but it has still been the struggle.

I have tried every way I know how to explain this to you and a couple of others. Bottom line, shut downs are not about death rate rather hospitalization capacity. Expect some additional shut downs if the Hospitalization increase rate from week to week doesn't change.

I don't care whether you agree or not. I am done explaining it.

Wife just told me that her hospital is no longer accepting socal patients as of yesterday.

 

[MicPaPa]

We band together in crisis.
That’s what Americans do.
We sacrifice to defeat the enemy.
Refusal to sacrifice is un-American.
Wear your mask and socially distance.

Sure, if you pretend she didn't say this:

"New York was able to deal with capacity issues because they completely shut down and New Yorkers were scared."

We have an obvious difference of opinion on what Americans do. In fact, based on most posts I've seen of yours, we definitely have a difference of opinion on the exceptionalism of America.

 

[MicPaPa]

That is what you got out of what I said? Wow!!!!! I will be hiding all of your comments because you clearly have another agenda that is completely not useful. Goodbye!

Yes, you said:

"New York was able to deal with capacity issues because they completely shut down and New Yorkers were scared."

...but okay.

 

[MicPaPa]

Wife just told me that her hospital is no longer accepting socal patients as of yesterday.

She's one of the lucky ones. Does she know how much capacity has been lost and workers laid off / furloughed since March?

 

[Desert Hound]

Still dont want to talk about your own state?

We dont need to ask whether unrestricted opening is a good idea. Arizona was kind enough to run the experiment for us. Cases shot up, followed by hospitalizations and deaths. AZ is now within 10% of running out of ICU space. Thanks for the data, but we don't need to copy your plan.

I wish we could try the experiment where 100% of us wash our hands, skip parties, and wear masks.

Despite substantially more cases since we opened up May 11 or so, deaths are only up marginally. Pre open up our highest deaths per day was 28. We have hit 38 as the max now.

Cal is seeing the same thing. Large spikes in positive cases and yet deaths remain fairly flat.

What is interesting is how the reporting is happening now.

Early on the press was counting deaths every day in the country. Deaths have fallen dramatically. So now the talk about #s who have tested positive with very little discussion regarding deaths and the fact that week by week there are fewer and fewer deaths being recorded.

 

[MicPaPa]

Still dont want to talk about your own state?

We dont need to ask whether unrestricted opening is a good idea. Arizona was kind enough to run the experiment for us. Cases shot up, followed by hospitalizations and deaths. AZ is now within 10% of running out of ICU space. Thanks for the data, but we don't need to copy your plan.

I wish we could try the experiment where 100% of us wash our hands, skip parties, and wear masks.

Sure masks when necessary, distancing, increased hygiene. I'm not comfortable experimenting with the mental and physical health of kids...are you?

 

[whatithink]

Hospitals Proved Surprisingly Adept at Adding Beds
When calculating whether hospitals would run out of beds, experts used as their baseline the number of beds in use in each hospital, region and state. That makes sense in normal times because hospitals have to meet stringent rules before they are able to add regular beds or intensive care units.

But in the early weeks of the pandemic, state health departments waived many rules and hospitals responded by increasing their capacity, sometimes dramatically. “Just because you only have six ICU beds doesn’t mean they will only have six ICU beds next week,” Muhlestein said. “They can really ramp that up. That’s one of the things we’re learning.”

Take Northwell Health, a chain of 17 acute-care hospitals in New York. Typically, the system has 4,000 beds, not including maternity beds, neonatal intensive care unit beds and psychiatric beds. The system grew to 6,000 beds within two weeks.

-----

As hospitals found ways to expand, government leaders worked with the Army Corps of Engineers to build dozens of field hospitals across the country, such as the one at the Javits Center. According to an analysis of federal spending by NPR, those efforts cost at least $660 million. “But nearly four months into the pandemic, most of these facilities haven’t treated a single patient,” NPR reported.

-----


Demand for Non-COVID-19 Care Plummeted More Than Expected
Hospitals across the country canceled elective surgeries, from hip replacements to kidney transplants. That greatly reduced the number of non-COVID-19 patients they had to treat. “We generated a lot more capacity by getting rid of elective procedures than any of us thought was possible,” Harvard’s Jha said.

How America’s Hospitals Survived the First Wave of the Coronavirus

ProPublica deputy managing editor Charles Ornstein wanted to know why experts were wrong when they said U.S. hospitals would be overwhelmed by COVID-19 patients. Here’s what he learned, including what hospitals can do before the next wave.

www.propublica.org

Interesting article, but its not just about beds, i.e. from the article

"While hospitals were able to add beds more quickly than experts realized they could, some other resources were harder to come by. Masks, gowns and other personal protective equipment were tough to get. So were ventilators. Anesthesia agents and dialysis medications were in short supply. And every additional bed meant the need for more doctors, nurses and respiratory therapists."

Interesting quote at the end also

Lynam of Northwell said he's worried about what lies ahead. “You look back on the 1918 Spanish flu and the majority of victims from that died in the second wave. … We don't know what's coming on the second wave. There may be some folks who say you're paranoid, but you've got to be prepared for the worst."

 

[The Outlaw *BANNED*]

I don't believe I ever used the term running out of beds. I have always come at this by saying capacity issues. I used licensed bed as the basis. Of course there is the ability to expand the number of beds and FEMA is working on it right now. There is a 1,000 bed ship parked in San Diego right now and I know Fresno County who is experiencing the same issues is making plans to use their Convention Center. I have not heard anything from OC Health of what plans they have which now is the time they should be planning for it. I have watched press conferences with OC health and I am very scared. The leadership for LA Health is the bomb and is on top of everything. OC Health....they are a disaster waiting to happen.

Any way, like I said, we reach capacity of licensed beds in August if we keep increasing at the weekly rate we have been increasing for the last few weeks. The State seemed to realize this too which is why they pulled back on some openings and put enforcement in place. Hopefully these steps put in place slows the spread down thus slowing down hospitalizations and not requiring further levels of shut downs.

What is the reasonable # of beds that can be added? IDK because no one is reporting that. Considering counties from Central Cal on down are experiencing exponential weekly growth in hospitalizations, can we count on other counties and who gets that 1000 bed ship and how fast does it fill up. If we only get the hospitalization increase rate down to only 20% increase a week instead of 30% or more that we have been running, that gets us a few extra weeks and the reality is OC alone would need an additional 1,200 more beds per week. New York was able to deal with capacity issues because they completely shut down and New Yorkers were scared.

The point is, expect additional levels of shut down if we don't flatten the hospital bed increase percentage from week to week. I am expecting some level of flattening over the coming weeks from the recent mandates but the question remains will it be enough.

Also, as was explained to me from someone from FEMA, you can convert a certain amount of hospital beds to ICU beds if you have the proper equipment and the ICU trained staff. I see the shortage of ICU trained staff has been the problem in Arizona and Texas. They have been flying them in but it has still been the struggle.

I have tried every way I know how to explain this to you and a couple of others. Bottom line, shut downs are not about death rate rather hospitalization capacity. Expect some additional shut downs if the Hospitalization increase rate from week to week doesn't change.

I don't care whether you agree or not. I am done explaining it.

Any chance your posts can be put on audio book?

 

[Messi>CR7]

Despite substantially more cases since we opened up May 11 or so, deaths are only up marginally. Pre open up our highest deaths per day was 28. We have hit 38 as the max now.

Cal is seeing the same thing. Large spikes in positive cases and yet deaths remain fairly flat.

You call this "fairly flat"? Most would disagree.

 

[Ellejustus]

I don't believe I ever used the term running out of beds. I have always come at this by saying capacity issues. I used licensed bed as the basis. Of course there is the ability to expand the number of beds and FEMA is working on it right now. There is a 1,000 bed ship parked in San Diego right now and I know Fresno County who is experiencing the same issues is making plans to use their Convention Center. I have not heard anything from OC Health of what plans they have which now is the time they should be planning for it. I have watched press conferences with OC health and I am very scared. The leadership for LA Health is the bomb and is on top of everything. OC Health....they are a disaster waiting to happen.

Any way, like I said, we reach capacity of licensed beds in August if we keep increasing at the weekly rate we have been increasing for the last few weeks. The State seemed to realize this too which is why they pulled back on some openings and put enforcement in place. Hopefully these steps put in place slows the spread down thus slowing down hospitalizations and not requiring further levels of shut downs.

What is the reasonable # of beds that can be added? IDK because no one is reporting that. Considering counties from Central Cal on down are experiencing exponential weekly growth in hospitalizations, can we count on other counties and who gets that 1000 bed ship and how fast does it fill up. If we only get the hospitalization increase rate down to only 20% increase a week instead of 30% or more that we have been running, that gets us a few extra weeks and the reality is OC alone would need an additional 1,200 more beds per week. New York was able to deal with capacity issues because they completely shut down and New Yorkers were scared.

The point is, expect additional levels of shut down if we don't flatten the hospital bed increase percentage from week to week. I am expecting some level of flattening over the coming weeks from the recent mandates but the question remains will it be enough.

Also, as was explained to me from someone from FEMA, you can convert a certain amount of hospital beds to ICU beds if you have the proper equipment and the ICU trained staff. I see the shortage of ICU trained staff has been the problem in Arizona and Texas. They have been flying them in but it has still been the struggle.

I have tried every way I know how to explain this to you and a couple of others. Bottom line, shut downs are not about death rate rather hospitalization capacity. Expect some additional shut downs if the Hospitalization increase rate from week to week doesn't change.

I don't care whether you agree or not. I am done explaining it.

LA vs OC now? Please keeper mom, just please........ I know your very scared and are so many like you are scared of death. Some are scared to get the virus and some are scared that t will win and some are scared of both and because their scared out of their minds, they have blocked the kids from living and others from living, all because their scared and full of fear. The LA Health group 100% said go protest because it's essential or something like that. Now you have more cases. Here's where I'm at. Either we all go on lock down and lose our jobs together or those who can and want to, go outside and live life. This sucks!!!!

 

[Desert Hound]

Interesting article, but its not just about beds, i.e. from the article

"While hospitals were able to add beds more quickly than experts realized they could, some other resources were harder to come by. Masks, gowns and other personal protective equipment were tough to get. So were ventilators. Anesthesia agents and dialysis medications were in short supply. And every additional bed meant the need for more doctors, nurses and respiratory therapists."

Interesting quote at the end also

Lynam of Northwell said he's worried about what lies ahead. “You look back on the 1918 Spanish flu and the majority of victims from that died in the second wave. … We don't know what's coming on the second wave. There may be some folks who say you're paranoid, but you've got to be prepared for the worst."

Well at the beginning all the countries in the world were scrambling for gear...including the US. Since that time we have ramped up supplies dramatically.

In terms of 1918 and a 2nd wave. Yep we don't know if there will be a more deadly wave. As such the states and the feds keep stocking supplies. If the argument is we don't know what happens in the future therefore lets lock ourselves up, I am not for that approach.

 

[Desert Hound]

You call this "fairly flat"? Most would disagree.

View attachment 8078

It is fairly flat. We were pre open up seeing mid to high 20s deaths per day. Now we are seeing mid 30s to some high 30s deaths. So all of 5-10 more deaths per day than earlier. That in a population of 7 million or so. So yes pretty flat.

 

[Desert Hound]

Speaking of hospital beds in Cal.

The CDC shows that right now about 45k beds are in use in the state of Cal.

The state has a hospital bed capacity of 75K.

 

[espola]

It is fairly flat. We were pre open up seeing mid to high 20s deaths per day. Now we are seeing mid 30s to some high 30s deaths. So all of 5-10 more deaths per day than earlier. That in a population of 7 million or so. So yes pretty flat.

You might ask Izzy for some help on your math there.

 

[kickingandscreaming]

Wife just told me that her hospital is no longer accepting socal patients as of yesterday.

Sorry if I missed this, but where is her hospital based?

 

[chiefs]

Since LA has the vast majority of Calif cases and deaths, has anyone thought of just isolating them in place? Why should anyone in Orange or San Bern or SD county have to be concerned what those loons have done?

 

[MacDre]

She's one of the lucky ones. Does she know how much capacity has been lost and workers laid off / furloughed since March?

The hospitals in NorCal were laying folks off. My wife volunteered to take a month of vacation so others more in need wouldn’t be laid off.
You see, the good thing about growing up poor, is that I don’t trip on material things. As long as I have my health and can get whatever I lose back. Man makes money, money doesn’t make the man.

Are you to good to eat beans, rice, & cornbread until things get better. Or do you want some cheese to go with that WINE?

 

[Desert Hound]

The hospitals in NorCal were laying folks off. My wife volunteered to take a month of vacation so others more in need wouldn’t be laid off.
You see, the good thing about growing up poor, is that I don’t trip on material things. As long as I have my health and can get whatever I lose back. Man makes money, money doesn’t make the man.

Are you to good to eat beans, rice, & cornbread until things get better. Or do you want some cheese to go with that WINE?

I would prefer a good whisky or and IPA instead of wine. Cheese sounds good too : )

 

[Kicker4Life]

Since LA has the vast majority of Calif cases and deaths, has anyone thought of just isolating them in place? Why should anyone in Orange or San Bern or SD county have to be concerned what those loons have done?

Then isolate the City of LA, not the county