I completely disagree with your analysis.
"Reasonable minds can look at the negotiations differently." Reasonable minds could not look at the fact that the women are paid a salary, have a deal with less risk in favor of guaranteed compensation and were actually paid more (during the relevant period) any differently, that would be unreasonable. These facts are undisputed and fatal to both the EPA and Title VII claims.
But let's say for the sake of argument that the WNT was actually paid less because they didn't make their bonus money OR the USMNT made their bonus money. Let's pretend the WNT made a prima facia case under Title IV and the EPA. They still lose their compensation claim, which is the meat of their suit.
There is no dispute that the MNT is compensated using an "incentive system." There is also no dispute that the MNT does not receive a salary and their compensation is based largely on participation in camps, games and wining tournaments.
Under both the EPA and Title VII the law requires the discriminatory conduct to be viewed through a historical lens ... what were the facts being relied upon to justify the disparate pay the years leading up to 2011/12. It would be improper to impute today's facts or arguments to the 2012 CBA. At the time that the 2011/12 CBA's was negotiated, the USMNT objectively brought in more revenue to the USSF. The WNT had just come in 2nd in the 2011 WC, and FIFA was paying a total of $5.8M in prize money, with the winner receiving $1M. The USWNT generated much less in prize money, as well as advertising and marketing dollars.
Here, the Federation had really good facts on their side.
Under TItle VII and the EPA we look at all compensation. Starting at "base compensation" and then "non base compensation."
Base Compensation. Women receive $100k salary and about $65k for NWSL, Men receive $0. No Discrimination against women ... arguably discrimination against MNT.
Non-Base Compensation. We are going to have to figure out a discounted value for the $165k of base compensation plus benefits paid to the women, which is a big problem for the WNT. And then see if the discounted "bonus" structure is objectively fair using 2011/12 facts.
While figuring out the discount value of the guaranteed commission, we nonetheless have to recognize
that an employer can justify a compensation disparity by proving that the higher paid employee generates more revenue for the employer than the lower paid employee.
See, e.g., Byrd v. Ronayne, 61 F.3d 1026, 1034 (1st Cir. 1995) (higher compensation for male attorney justified because he generated substantially greater revenue for law firm). But, we need to do this with facts from the time and not today's facts.
Title VII adopts the EPA's four affirmative defenses, which provide a sex-based compensation difference in substantially equal jobs is justified if it is based on:
- a seniority system;
- a merit system;
- a system which measures earnings by quantity or quality of production ("incentive system"); or
- any other factor other than sex.
The fatal flaw in the position/argument of the USWNT is that the MNT's incentive system was better than their incentive system because the Federation measured the bonus to the MNT based on quantity/quality of production (more prize money = more bonus). If the USWNT's union had not demanded guaranteed compensation (i.e. no salary and NWSL bonus) they would have and argument, but their union negotiated guaranteed pay killing their bonus discrimination argument.
The other kicker is that under Title VII, they are suing only 1 of the 2 parties that allegedly wronged them. An employer's assertion that a compensation differential is attributable to a collective bargaining agreement does not constitute a defense under the EPA. If the union contributed to the creation of a compensation differential, the union should be added as a respondent. The EPA specifically provides that no labor organization "shall cause or attempt to cause" a covered employer to violate the statute.
29 U.S.C. 206(d)(2). By asking for a salary and and NWSL bonus, the Players Association opened the door to discounted bonuses and contributed to the potential compensation differential. Looks like the USWNT Players Association is going to get dragged into a lawsuit by its members.
Fast forward to the 2016/17 CBA, the Player's Association received some additional concessions from the Federation, but the facts in 2016/17 must be used, not the 2019 circumstances.
The payment of guaranteed compensation is simply fatal to their claims under Title VII and the EPA, especially because the bonuses are tied to "quantity and quality" which are affirmative defenses under both the EPA and Title VII.
EDIT: I don't believe I ever stated this:
"But that is different than the argument you and others were making earlier, which is that it doesn’t matter whether the CBA discriminates against the WNT, they’re stuck with it because that’s what they agreed to." My position has always been the guaranteed compensation negotiated in the 2012 and 2017 CBA's created a different deal that was non discriminatory on its face (at least to the WNT) and is fatal to the claims because the USWNT traded risk for certainty.