Outdoor and Indoor Youth and Recreational Adult Sports guidance

imo the traditional dropoff of 13-14-15 is going to be very pronounced this year and I do think we'll also see a good chunk of 8-9-10 deciding it isn't their thing anymore either. Everyone who I have talked to are preparing for the overall ecosystem to be cut in half. That really woke me up. We will take a look at '13 registration levels to see if the overall pipeline has been affected but everyone is saying that it will be by a huge amount, as the disposable incomes aren't there or are being diverted to other things.

Do you think there will be any positive impact due to the proliferation USMNT/USWNT players in Europe? It's like how every kid in NorCal got into baseball when the SF Giants were hot. Or the Lance Armstrong effect on cycling in the US.
 
Do you think there will be any positive impact due to the proliferation USMNT/USWNT players in Europe? It's like how every kid in NorCal got into baseball when the SF Giants were hot. Or the Lance Armstrong effect on cycling in the US.

That's a great question. I'm sure there will be some, but moreso because young parents get to see McKennie hit the wonderstrike and get their 5-year-old kicking the ball around for fun. The overall pipeline for soccer is different than other sports, as you know. It's relatively rare -- not impossible, just relatively rare -- for a kid to just straight up start playing at 14. And also presumably if you're out there in 1st grade wearing a Ronaldo jersey, you're already playing in your local AYSO team or whatever.

On the girls side I think the US is approaching a ceiling in growth. You will continue to see those types of adorable photos like Sophia Smith as a little kid with Wambach and hopefully we will see more diversity in the pipeline as Crystal Dunn and Midge Purce influence the next generation, but realistically how many more kids are you going to get, they just walked to a World Cup victory what seems like forever ago.
 
That's a great question. I'm sure there will be some, but moreso because young parents get to see McKennie hit the wonderstrike and get their 5-year-old kicking the ball around for fun. The overall pipeline for soccer is different than other sports, as you know. It's relatively rare -- not impossible, just relatively rare -- for a kid to just straight up start playing at 14. And also presumably if you're out there in 1st grade wearing a Ronaldo jersey, you're already playing in your local AYSO team or whatever.

On the girls side I think the US is approaching a ceiling in growth. You will continue to see those types of adorable photos like Sophia Smith as a little kid with Wambach and hopefully we will see more diversity in the pipeline as Crystal Dunn and Midge Purce influence the next generation, but realistically how many more kids are you going to get, they just walked to a World Cup victory what seems like forever ago.

Yeah I have no idea. It's interesting though, I see Pulisic and Morgan jerseys all over the place where we live. Pre-pandemic our kids would play soccer at recess/lunch. I'm hopeful this is the turning point for US Soccer.

I'm also hoping Santa brings me a Juve McKennie jersey for Xmas.
 
Yeah I have no idea. It's interesting though, I see Pulisic and Morgan jerseys all over the place where we live. Pre-pandemic our kids would play soccer at recess/lunch. I'm hopeful this is the turning point for US Soccer.

I'm also hoping Santa brings me a Juve McKennie jersey for Xmas.

The problem for soccer in the US with the boys is that basketball and baseball (even though baseball may be in decline) are bigger draws. And in the red states, football is much more woven into the culture. The boys will want to play what their friends play and as you guys say (unlike Lacrosse and water polo) you have to get them when they are little. Add the influence dads wield to steer them into baseball or football that further reduces the player pool...soccer may have gotten a bit of a bump in the coastal areas due to the concerns with football.
 
The problem for soccer in the US with the boys is that basketball and baseball (even though baseball may be in decline) are bigger draws. And in the red states, football is much more woven into the culture. The boys will want to play what their friends play and as you guys say (unlike Lacrosse and water polo) you have to get them when they are little. Add the influence dads wield to steer them into baseball or football that further reduces the player pool...soccer may have gotten a bit of a bump in the coastal areas due to the concerns with football.

For sure, what you say resonates with me. In our county, though, American football is absolutely on the decline. I think there is only one or two pop warner teams. This has everything to do with CTE. Soccer has a pretty big following here, but so does basketball (Go dubs!). I think there are some pretty good odds that an American player will make it to the champions league final. I'm absolutely dumbfounded with how many US players play in Europe these days. Love or hate Lance Armstrong, cycling in the US is big in a large part because of him.
 
Do you think there will be any positive impact due to the proliferation USMNT/USWNT players in Europe? It's like how every kid in NorCal got into baseball when the SF Giants were hot. Or the Lance Armstrong effect on cycling in the US.
I think the impact is somewhat limited until one of them (preferably an attacking player) turns into a true world-class, UEFA's best XI level star. I watch all of Barca's matches, and I never know when Dest would get to start. It's hard for an average fan to turn into a fanatic if there is no continuity. I thought Pulisic at the end of last year was on his way, but injuries continue to hold him back.

The best example I can think of is Heung-Min Son. Outside of the countries with their own top pro leagues, one can safely assume ManU, Barca, or Real are the most popular clubs. But Spurs are now easily the most popular club in Korea and Son's cultural influence is visibly everywhere.
 
I think the impact is somewhat limited until one of them (preferably an attacking player) turns into a true world-class, UEFA's best XI level star. I watch all of Barca's matches, and I never know when Dest would get to start. It's hard for an average fan to turn into a fanatic if there is no continuity. I thought Pulisic at the end of last year was on his way, but injuries continue to hold him back.

The best example I can think of is Heung-Min Son. Outside of the countries with their own top pro leagues, one can safely assume ManU, Barca, or Real are the most popular clubs. But Spurs are now easily the most popular club in Korea and Son's cultural influence is visibly everywhere.

I think we are making progress but it’s still a good 10 years away. It’s so cool to see more than 1 American player (and starting) on TV playing European soccer with top teams.

The quality of MLS teams is improving and this can help as well. I seldom watch an mls game but I found myself surprised the other day to see LAFC take it to Cruz Azul on TV. We are beginning to see an evolution of MLS teams with a pipeline of youth players from local academies and South American teams.
 
I think we are making progress but it’s still a good 10 years away. It’s so cool to see more than 1 American player (and starting) on TV playing European soccer with top teams.

The quality of MLS teams is improving and this can help as well. I seldom watch an mls game but I found myself surprised the other day to see LAFC take it to Cruz Azul on TV. We are beginning to see an evolution of MLS teams with a pipeline of youth players from local academies and South American teams.
Agree about the time frame. The quality of mls teams though is actually being diluted. Because Of the shared employment system and because of the salary caps it’s really hard to put together a quality team that can dominate like a Real Madrid or a Bayern. Just look at the struggle of the Galaxy to put together a quality team despite having Zlatan and Zlatans impact in Italy. Add to that the mls expansion and the dollars and the player pool gets further diluted. It creates 3 weird conditions you see in the mls you don’t usually see in leagues elsewhere that has perpetual superpowers: 1. Coaching and how a team fits and works together actually makes a difference, 2. New expansion teams have an advantage in getting out of gates but begin to fade after time, and 3. Goalkeepers are not enough (see Howard) but you need a really good one to be in contention (see the Galaxy and the Quakes struggled) since a goalkeeper that struggles in an aspect of the game can really break a team.
 
@Grace showed something on the Good News thread that indicates LA might be near the peak.

The highest "2nd wave compared to the 1st wave" from other states with a significant 1st wave was IL with a 2nd wave peak that was about 4x the first wave peak. In CA, we are currently about 4x the first wave July peak. Doubling from here would make that 8x, tripling would be 12x.
Sounds like Mavericks is going off with that huge huge triple wave.
 
For second weekend in a row 2 different parks have tiny tots soccer going on. These are those companies that run group training for the littlest ones. Different parks in vc and la. Am wondering how (if) they are getting permits. Not just toddlers either but the younger ayso ages too. Parents are on the sidelines mingling and egging them on so that’s likely an issue. They don’t usually get too many ayso level kids but this class is full probably because ayso is down. Full contact so not following the day camp rules. Not passing a judgment either way (other than it’s probably a bad idea for the parents to congregate). Most kids playing with masks
 
For second weekend in a row 2 different parks have tiny tots soccer going on. These are those companies that run group training for the littlest ones. Different parks in vc and la. Am wondering how (if) they are getting permits. Not just toddlers either but the younger ayso ages too. Parents are on the sidelines mingling and egging them on so that’s likely an issue. They don’t usually get too many ayso level kids but this class is full probably because ayso is down. Full contact so not following the day camp rules. Not passing a judgment either way (other than it’s probably a bad idea for the parents to congregate). Most kids playing with masks
cool story Grace
 
For second weekend in a row 2 different parks have tiny tots soccer going on. These are those companies that run group training for the littlest ones. Different parks in vc and la. Am wondering how (if) they are getting permits. Not just toddlers either but the younger ayso ages too. Parents are on the sidelines mingling and egging them on so that’s likely an issue. They don’t usually get too many ayso level kids but this class is full probably because ayso is down. Full contact so not following the day camp rules. Not passing a judgment either way (other than it’s probably a bad idea for the parents to congregate). Most kids playing with masks
I just back from a walk in the park and I saw a little USL game going as well Grace and it was fun for the kiddos. Laughing, running and getting exercise. The weather in socal is amazing today. The ocean had gold diamonds on it today :) I talked to a dad with a mask on and he said he loves helping out for one hour while the moms go and take a break. Super cool dad who has taken it upon himself to make soccer happen for free!!!!
 
Anecdotally of course, but the school playgrounds I see are not filled with soccer jerseys any more, past couple years. About 5+ years ago, they reached their peak -- while Messi, Ronaldo and others were at the peak of their careers--seemed like every kid was wearing Man U, City, Liverpool, Barca, Real, Juve etc. jerseys -- and the girls wearing US players as well. Not any more.

I see more pro baseball, football and basketball shirts and jerseys again. And honestly, from what I overhear, the interest in watching live sports is dwindling thanks to YouTube, Tiktok, IG, Snap et al. I think viewing habits are permanently changing and most (not all) kids would rather scroll through TikTok videos and Twitter highlights from a game for an hour vs. watch the actual second half of an EPL game. World Cup and Olympics likely change the dynamic, but for the other 47 months, change is a comin'.

MLS season, WWC and Men's World Cup ratings all bear this out too -- all down 15+%
 
Anecdotally of course, but the school playgrounds I see are not filled with soccer jerseys any more, past couple years. About 5+ years ago, they reached their peak -- while Messi, Ronaldo and others were at the peak of their careers--seemed like every kid was wearing Man U, City, Liverpool, Barca, Real, Juve etc. jerseys -- and the girls wearing US players as well. Not any more.

I see more pro baseball, football and basketball shirts and jerseys again. And honestly, from what I overhear, the interest in watching live sports is dwindling thanks to YouTube, Tiktok, IG, Snap et al. I think viewing habits are permanently changing and most (not all) kids would rather scroll through TikTok videos and Twitter highlights from a game for an hour vs. watch the actual second half of an EPL game. World Cup and Olympics likely change the dynamic, but for the other 47 months, change is a comin'.

MLS season, WWC and Men's World Cup ratings all bear this out too -- all down 15+%
My kids never watch sports now. I was on espnnews.com last night and the NBA is doing exhibition games already. What is up with that? LeBron is going to be helping us out with China and that gnarly relationship we got. King James baby!!! My Steelers wont win it all because Big Ben is too old and we missed on Josh Allen.
 
So my older daughters old dance studio had 50 girls in 30 x 50 room perform a dance that I just saw the video on. No masks. They are 3-4 feet from each other for 2-3 minutes performing, much longer when they learned the routine. How anyone could think that is equal to soccer outdoors has lost their mind. 50 girls, no masks. Crazy.
I'm pretty sure "think" is where it all falls apart.
 
I saw a report that the midwest is beginning to see a drop in covid cases. Im wondering if there's any correlation trends on how long it took them to peak (again) and down to a decline.
Remember how awful Thanksgiving was supposed to be?

Well, here's what happened in the Midwest:


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