Youth Soccer Rankings ?

[Carlsbad7]

Not arbitrarily defining. The threshold that SR has defined is that the team shows a rating. Before that threshold, the team has a (hidden) rating, but it isn't statistically relevant, and isn't displayed. Once the team has enough recorded games so the results of comparing ratings would be statistically relevant - the rating is shown. You can see this in a team's game history - where they may be showing an overperform or an underperform against a team that currently has no rating. It can do this as it's being compared to the team's hidden rating - which isn't yet solid enough to display.

If you're comparing results between a team that has a rating, and an unrated/unranked team, you can consider it "more of an educated guess". If you're talking about a game (any game) between two rated teams, it's not an educated guess. It's a prediction of how the teams are expected to perform, based on all of their performance up until that game.

You realize this is the same thing that I described. Its just broken out by threshold. Below the threshold is an educated guess. Above the threshold is a resonable prediction.

I dont think you understand data.

I do think that you're learning about data through the ranking app. Because of this you view everything through the lens the ranking app provides.

 

[RandomSoccerFan]

You realize this is the same thing that I described. Its just broken out by threshold. Below the threshold is an educated guess. Above the threshold is a resonable prediction.

I dont think you understand data.

I do think that you're learning about data through the ranking app. Because of this you view everything through the lens the ranking app provides.

I don't think you're reliable at fairly representing what you've already stated. Nor do I think you understand data as well as you think you do.

You've defined the threshold, for yourself, at some level between teams that have played each other often, and teams that have played each other less often. You've said that below that threshold it's an educated guess, while above that threshold it's more accurate. You used the example of SoCal ECNL teams to state the case (which is another misrepresentation, but we'll save that for another time). This is wrong-headed thinking. There's logic in it - it just turns out to be wrong.

The threshold for a prediction to be reliable is whether a team has a rating. That's it. The prediction will fit into the predictivity expectations as shown repeatedly above.

The ranking app provides plenty of examples to show people's gap in understanding of probability & statistics. It's why Mark has stopped even talking about in detail (the calculations, predictivity, etc.) on social media, as it always devolves into people not being capable of understanding even the most basic tenets.

 

[TopesWin]

I’m seeing a team ranked in the 30-40th a week ago, jumped to 7th within a week after a tournament against older age group in the 3rd flight.

This can happen, without it being a function of the team playing up. When I see a huge swing like that, I check back a week later and oftentimes the team has settled back down quite a bit. Each time the algorithm is run it adjusts things, and you can't get too excited (or too depressed ) about that first initial jump (or fall)

 

[TopesWin]

I understand what you are saying but blowing out flight 3 teams in the older age group should not give you that kind of boost in your own age group ranking.

Flight 3 means nothing to the algorithm. All that matters is the opponent's rating (the four-digit number on the far right) and how many goals they won by.