Why keep arguing, NO FALL SOCCER!

Keepermom2 said:
I did not get the chart of spending from a google search. I received links to various sites from a contact I have in the Government. These are however public sources of information that can be obtained by many people. Looking at consumer spending is "plainly ridiculous"? LOL What is the ultimate driver of the economy? I am in the same meetings you refer to and what is basically said by everyone is who are building projections is they don't really have a solid base to rely on for future projections since there are so many unknowns.

Since you refer to construction, surely you know there has been no decline in housing prices in Orange County and in fact there has been a rise in value since same time last year.

There are many factors that are in play right now. Funny how you can say with certainty you know what is going on when the real business people that have to disclose that information in their filings to the public cannot say that and are not saying that. They are saying there are many unknowns.
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Also....

How about that one segment market article you posted...Non residential construction. Do you know why that market is going to be down for years to come? Because there is a change in how business will be done because people do not have to be in a building to do business and COVID has shown that. As I said....how we do business is changing and will hurt us in the short run but benefit us in the long run.
 
Grace T. said:
Open floor office plans are definitely dead. The argument is always going to be now, well if you did this for COVID, why not flu when there's a bad flu season.
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What? That doesn't make any sense to what I was talking about. I am not talking about open floor plans. I am talking about people not needing a building or a smaller building to do business.
 
Not_that_Serious said:
So you take one sector and use that data to analyze an entire economy? Looking to the news for in depth business analysis? No one In business gets market info from the news or main stream media. You go to industry specific publications for that. I’m in meetings with companies that sell billions in product yearly multiple times a week. Currently most meetings consist of going over third quarter reports, fourth quarter projections and projections for next year. Most people don’t know there are market projections and reports that track virtually every consumer good/service. You can get projections for home window sales to screws to toilet paper. Everything is tracked and all the various industries have impact on the economy.

since you cherry-pickt what you get off google and now not in multiple meetings weekly with companies literally pleading to push any possible projects their way. I attached a chart From the American Institute of Architects. Non-Res construction growth was forecasted at 1.5% for 2020 - meetings we had for our industry was forecasted at 4%. The chart shows the Actual loss COVID created. The loss was recalculated to be 14% - a 15.5 point swing. Institutional loss is less, but only because projects are being pushed up due to campuses being closed. There will be a big gap to be made up in that market in the next few years because new projects are not being developed until the dust settles. Many industries/markets are tied to construction. Losses from lighting, fixtures, paint and other building materials were at minimum 33% for ALL companies, the ones we deal with, in the last two quarters. A few companies are to the point they might have to sell to competitors. All these companies furloughed people at the very minimum and most had large layoffs. If the construction market doesn’t bounce back quickly, You will see how consumer spending is tied to the construction market.

Looking at Online spending to predict economic health, or Covid impact, is plainly ridiculous. You only see that Online, on news channels with people trying to push a narrative or from people who think their google search-analysis research is better than actual real world experience.

Referenced Article: https://www.aia.org/pages/6287230-an-update-on-2020-projections-for-the-nonr
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1599064262522.png
 
Keepermom2 said:
I did not get the chart of spending from a google search. I received links to various sites from a contact I have in the Government. These are however public sources of information that can be obtained by many people. Looking at consumer spending is "plainly ridiculous"? LOL What is the ultimate driver of the economy? I am in the same meetings you refer to and what is basically said by everyone is who are building projections is they don't really have a solid base to rely on for future projections since there are so many unknowns.

Since you refer to construction, surely you know there has been no decline in housing prices in Orange County and in fact there has been a rise in value since same time last year.

There are many factors that are in play right now. Funny how you can say with certainty you know what is going on when the real business people that have to disclose that information in their filings to the public cannot say that and are not saying that. They are saying there are many unknowns.
Click to expand...
Why would pricing on houses fall? Inventory is still limited. If nothing is being built, would only increase prices on what is available. In places like San Francisco companies now have a few more options to select from, but the pricing hasn’t dipped due to the inventory still being limited. House pricing doesn’t show how many people are employed or give the number of construction projects going on or indicate retail sales - or even how people are spending their money. Data is being accumulated in these times in even greater mass. The amount of daily reporting employees do has at least tripled in most companies we deal with.

You honestly should stop. My company has government contacts and our meeting are based off direct info provided from municipalities- including the two largest builders. The builders are actually cities (they are that large) that build in other cities and throughout the state. We are in a recession and it is going to last past the 11 months it usually takes to get out of it. Our economy fell 34%. A market correction is typically between 10-20%. A market correction usually takes 4mos to recover from on average. A Bear market, which we were in, takes 4.2 years to recover from. We did it in 148 days. So you say that proves your point, it doesn’t because of the recesssion. It can even double dip. American Airlines is laying off 40,000 people by Oct 1st. Other airlines are laying off people as well. CDC just protected people from being evicted. Awesome, but there is no mechanism in place to help compensate the landlords. So many of these property owners are going to have to foreclose. How many? We don’t know, but that all effects things such as Tenant Improvement Projects, Remodels and new construction. That affects jobs and spending. Add the fact that only about 10% of all Americans are financially stable and it’s a real recipe for hurt. Call these companies in these markets up and say you are a blogger or reporter. The majority will say, they just want this year to be over. You obviously have not sat in meetings where admins of companies have swallowed all pride and humbly asked for everyone in the room to help as much as they can. Not for them, but so they they can save everyone’s job.
 
Keepermom2 said:
View attachment 8889
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Yes this chart was recently prepared by the Chief Economist department for KPMG one of the Big 4 accounting firms.

Also notice that the "Pessimistic Scenario-Rising cases, high aversion behavior, U.S. school closures".

All of you that have been arguing opening up on the basis of COVID is low risk to your children, obviously our economy is dependent on doing what is right to diminish the spread of the virus.
 
Not_that_Serious said:
Why would pricing on houses fall? Inventory is still limited. If nothing is being built, would only increase prices on what is available. In places like San Francisco companies now have a few more options to select from, but the pricing hasn’t dipped due to the inventory still being limited. House pricing doesn’t show how many people are employed or give the number of construction projects going on or indicate retail sales - or even how people are spending their money. Data is being accumulated in these times in even greater mass. The amount of daily reporting employees do has at least tripled in most companies we deal with.

You honestly should stop. My company has government contacts and our meeting are based off direct info provided from municipalities- including the two largest builders. The builders are actually cities (they are that large) that build in other cities and throughout the state. We are in a recession and it is going to last past the 11 months it usually takes to get out of it. Our economy fell 34%. A market correction is typically between 10-20%. A market correction usually takes 4mos to recover from on average. A Bear market, which we were in, takes 4.2 years to recover from. We did it in 148 days. So you say that proves your point, it doesn’t because of the recesssion. It can even double dip. American Airlines is laying off 40,000 people by Oct 1st. Other airlines are laying off people as well. CDC just protected people from being evicted. Awesome, but there is no mechanism in place to help compensate the landlords. So many of these property owners are going to have to foreclose. How many? We don’t know, but that all effects things such as Tenant Improvement Projects, Remodels and new construction. That affects jobs and spending. Add the fact that only about 10% of all Americans are financially stable and it’s a real recipe for hurt. Call these companies in these markets up and say you are a blogger or reporter. The majority will say, they just want this year to be over. You obviously have not sat in meetings where admins of companies have swallowed all pride and humbly asked for everyone in the room to help as much as they can. Not for them, but so they they can save everyone’s job.
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You are looking at segments and not the whole economy. Take a look at the following link that is prepared by the Chief Economist department of a Big 4 Accounting firm and stop your criticism of me.
 
MakeAPlay said:
Is youth soccer really that important? My kid is a pro soccer player and her internship with the Daschle group is more important to her than her soccer career and that is a fact.
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It's not just about the soccer. It's about the isolation, about the unknown, about not being with their friends, and about the normalcy it brings to kids who have been playing most of their childhood. The soccer is just the vehicle that brings back some of their joy.
 
Keepermom2 said:
What? That doesn't make any sense to what I was talking about. I am not talking about open floor plans. I am talking about people not needing a building or a smaller building to do business.
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Wow...you've gotten unusually defensive not just with my comment but with others....take a breadth and maybe walk away for a bit. I was echoing your point that building structures are going to change. Large campuses, open floor plans were the rage of all tech companies, studios, com companies in recent years. That's going to change.

As I told my kid after his first disastrous play in goal 3 years go....don't have the stomach for it, hang up the cleats, don't play...no one's forcing you.
 
kickingandscreaming said:
This is what Dominic posted when he started shutting down threads. Is this thread part of the "Off Topic" forum?

This forum other than the Off Topic forum will now be void of any political or racially sensitive posts. Forum Members who cannot abide will be banned at my discretion.
Current threads who already have this type of content will be locked, or deleted.
This forum was created to discuss youth soccer, and lately we have totally gotten off track. I have read many of these divisive threads , so I know who the main participants are, and you will be watched.

Again Off Topic is the only allowable place for racially sensitive or political posts like it always has been. No I am not condoning attacks on this basis just discussion.

Dominic
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IKR. So weird that things keep going off topic each time @The Outlaw comes back from his time outs, this time with the Kyle Rittenhouse crack.
 
Not_that_Serious said:
Why would pricing on houses fall? Inventory is still limited. If nothing is being built, would only increase prices on what is available. In places like San Francisco companies now have a few more options to select from, but the pricing hasn’t dipped due to the inventory still being limited. House pricing doesn’t show how many people are employed or give the number of construction projects going on or indicate retail sales - or even how people are spending their money. Data is being accumulated in these times in even greater mass. The amount of daily reporting employees do has at least tripled in most companies we deal with.

You honestly should stop. My company has government contacts and our meeting are based off direct info provided from municipalities- including the two largest builders. The builders are actually cities (they are that large) that build in other cities and throughout the state. We are in a recession and it is going to last past the 11 months it usually takes to get out of it. Our economy fell 34%. A market correction is typically between 10-20%. A market correction usually takes 4mos to recover from on average. A Bear market, which we were in, takes 4.2 years to recover from. We did it in 148 days. So you say that proves your point, it doesn’t because of the recesssion. It can even double dip. American Airlines is laying off 40,000 people by Oct 1st. Other airlines are laying off people as well. CDC just protected people from being evicted. Awesome, but there is no mechanism in place to help compensate the landlords. So many of these property owners are going to have to foreclose. How many? We don’t know, but that all effects things such as Tenant Improvement Projects, Remodels and new construction. That affects jobs and spending. Add the fact that only about 10% of all Americans are financially stable and it’s a real recipe for hurt. Call these companies in these markets up and say you are a blogger or reporter. The majority will say, they just want this year to be over. You obviously have not sat in meetings where admins of companies have swallowed all pride and humbly asked for everyone in the room to help as much as they can. Not for them, but so they they can save everyone’s job.
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Can you imagine if Prop 15 passes in the middle of all this? Although it will take a few years to implement...holy crap!
 
Grace T. said:
Wow...you've gotten unusually defensive not just with my comment but with others....take a breadth and maybe walk away for a bit. I was echoing your point that building structures are going to change. Large campuses, open floor plans were the rage of all tech companies, studios, com companies in recent years. That's going to change.

As I told my kid after his first disastrous play in goal 3 years go....don't have the stomach for it, hang up the cleats, don't play...no one's forcing you.
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How was I defensive with your comment? Because I pointed out it had nothing to do with what I was talking about? Project much? Once again and as you often do, you start a new conversation because you don't have a response to the original topic and you start criticising. It is okay to not know everything Grace. It doesn't make you look good when you start a new topic. When you don't understand or don't know, it is okay to just scroll on by. You are still good enough, strong enough, and people like you. LOL literally!
 
MSK357 said:
Thats easy for you to say since your kid didnt have to go through a situation like this. shes already gone through youth soccer and reached the pinnacle of her soccer career. You might have sung a different tune if this hit during her formative years as a soccer player.
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See that is where you are wrong. School has always been number one for her. Everything else has been a bonus. You might have missed that I said that my kids current internship is more important than the soccer is to her. And no we did not go through a pandemic but she missed plenty of soccer games for vacations and for academic reasons.
 
Soccerhelper said:
Excellent question. I wonder what the great Maps would have done as a Jr or Sr stud in HS? I would be so depressed, mad, sad, angry and I would have just quit school. No books for this guy. I dont read books, ever!!! Boring for me.
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My kid committed to the school she just graduated from as a sophomore in high school so I imagine there wouldn't have been any difference.
 
Keepermom2 said:
How was I defensive with your comment? Because I pointed out it had nothing to do with what I was talking about? Project much? Once again and as you often do, you start a new conversation because you don't have a response to the original topic and you start criticising. It is okay to not know everything Grace. It doesn't make you look good when you start a new topic. When you don't understand or don't know, it is okay to just scroll on by. You are still good enough, strong enough, and people like you. LOL literally!
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Wow. Last time I try to back up even a part of your argument. I actually agree with a lot of your economic argument (though from the Swedish, Australian and South Korean experiences I think the lockdowns and restrictions actually have more of an impact than any surges). Didn't wade in much because the building structures are the only part which is in my bailiwick, which I think you are right about.
 
MakeAPlay said:
My kid committed to the school she just graduated from as a sophomore in high school so I imagine there wouldn't have been any difference.
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I'm talking about Maps as a young stud as Jr or Sr? You stay inside and obey and play no ball? Plus, this is easier for girls then boys, just saying. A good girl who reads books and studies, juggles and hits ball against wall is ok in this Corona environment. Boys? Hell no!!!
 
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