Vaccine

Grace T. said:
Errr….as I said there’s a lot for both sides to criticize on this study. On the anti mask side it’s that it tracked symptoms since blood samples were hard to collect and that it was coupled with distance (you saw a greater effect in the elderly because the elderly were more sheltered). But I’d be happy if you just finally acknowledge cloth masks are not all they are cracked up to be.
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Strawman
 
Grace T. said:
Yeah yeah yeah we know the drill. My representation of the study is that there’s quite a lot in there for both sides to hate and there’s quite a lot for both to criticize by way of methodology. I think we just both proved that. But between you and me, its only the true believer that tried to argue this study is great for masking.
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Every masked group fared better than every unmasked group. Will you admit that, or is this another Simpson's paradox?
 
dad4 said:
That is a significant misrepresentation, Grace.

The study did not find that surgical masks are associated with a 10% decline in cases. The study found that partial adoption of surgical masks was associated with an 11.2% decline in cases. The actual change to mask wearing was only 28 percentage points. Complete adoption of surgical masks would be expected to cause a larger change than partial adoption. If it is linear, a 40% decline.

Slightly more, since the surgical masks they used were washable and had a lower filtration efficiency than the disposable ones.

Cloth masks were not found to be useless. The study was underpowered to answer that question. The median estimate for cloth masks was that they were about 1/2 as effective as reusable surgical masks.

In all, the study was strong evidence that masks work, and that you should upgrade from cloth to surgical.
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