Vaccine

[dad4]

You must be joking?

I myself got O from a vax’d and boosted friend. Everyone in my office is vaxx’d and all but 2 people have gotten O at different times since the holidays.

Everyone in my peer group is Vax’d. All but 1 have gotten O in January.

Not joking at all.

Unvaccinated people may be uncommon in some places, but they make up a large fraction of currently infectious people.

For SCC, unvaccinated are 15% of the population. But they test positive at almost 6x the rate of everyone else. The net effect is that about half of all new infections are unvaccinated people.

Then remember that vaccinated people spend less time at peak viral load. With that, more than half of currently infectious people are unvaccinated. Far more than half if you live in a county with a lower vax rate.

Given that, it's entirely possible you and your friends got omicron from unvaccinated people who just happen to like the same bar, restaurant, coffee shop, or gym as you do. There are lots of infected unvaccinated people, you enjoy indoor establishments, and omicron is very contagious.

That is not proof or even close, but it certainly isn't obvious the other way, either.

 

[dad4]

ummm

Put it this way, I don't see a case that it is "obvious" that R for vax to vax is above 1.

Not obvious that it is below 1, either.

 

[soccersc]

Really?

How is it “obvious” that vaccinated people are a significant source of omicron transmission?

There is an alternate possibility- that omicron is spreading primarily among the unvaccinated, and from the unvaccinated to the vaccinated. I don’t see how you dismiss that hypothesis without quite a bit of work.

Do you really believe what you say? I get the feeling you just fish for some sort of response...he never even said "significant" source. Why does it even matter the source at this point. The virus spreads to vaccinated and unvaccinated, variants will never end, the vaccine is not as effective as they thought it would be, if you want to get a booster every 6 months you will probably have less symptoms and stay out of the hospital. How hard is that to understand. I am not sure how you can argue any of those points still.

I just wonder what you think about the fact they originally said if you get vaccinated you wont get covid and then they said you can't spread it, they were wrong about both! They had no idea, it is experimental, they were wrong and its only been 2 years.... doesn't that make you wonder what will happen in 10-15 years? If they were so wrong about the short term what gives you confidence that they are going to be correct about the long term? I am really interested in what you think about that???

 

[watfly]

The net effect is that about half of all new infections are unvaccinated people.

And the other half would be?

I don't doubt that unvaccinated may be more likely to be infected, but what do you base your 6X greater on. Reported cases? The vaccinated are far more likely to have non-reported cases, since they are less likely to require medical care. Most of those that I know that were infected but vaccinated in the last month or so, never tested at a testing site, most only took home tests.

Suffice it to say that there is enough critical mass of the vaccinated getting infected (ie the "other half") to spread the virus like wildfire, although case rates are trending down. I suspect mostly due to infected immunity.

 

[dad4]

Do you really believe what you say? I get the feeling you just fish for some sort of response...he never even said "significant" source. Why does it even matter the source at this point. The virus spreads to vaccinated and unvaccinated, variants will never end, the vaccine is not as effective as they thought it would be, if you want to get a booster every 6 months you will probably have less symptoms and stay out of the hospital. How hard is that to understand. I am not sure how you can argue any of those points still.

I just wonder what you think about the fact they originally said if you get vaccinated you wont get covid and then they said you can't spread it, they were wrong about both! They had no idea, it is experimental, they were wrong and its only been 2 years.... doesn't that make you wonder what will happen in 10-15 years? If they were so wrong about the short term what gives you confidence that they are going to be correct about the long term? I am really interested in what you think about that???

Yes, I believe what I write.

Why does it matter? Because, if 80% of transmission is coming from 20% of people, then that tells you where your energy needs to go.

 

[espola]

I'm not sure Neil Young put much money on the table. He has the neilyoungarchives site where he has streaming, and he makes his money via touring, or just playing a few gigs (as all big artists do these days), so financially this was a "meh" to him I expect. By the by, NY dinged his record label (Warner) and asked them to have the songs taken down, and they in turn asked Spotify. The latter probably reasoned what they make from NY versus Rogan is night & day. Rogan has 11M subscribers and is on a $100M contract. There was only one "winner" in this.

Spotify is moving towards being an audio platform, with podcasts being key to that. They want subscribers and weekly podcasts (new content) make a lot more sense that an artist that might bring out a new song/album every few years.

Just guessing here -- Young's royalty checks from his work in the '60s and '70s probably make Spotify's contributions irrelevant.

 

[dad4]

And the other half would be?

I don't doubt that unvaccinated may be more likely to be infected, but what do you base your 6X greater on. Reported cases? The vaccinated are far more likely to have non-reported cases, since they are less likely to require medical care. Most of those that I know that were infected but vaccinated in the last month or so, never tested at a testing site, most only took home tests.

Suffice it to say that there is enough critical mass of the vaccinated getting infected (ie the "other half") to spread the virus like wildfire, although case rates are trending down. I suspect mostly due to infected immunity.

The 6X number is from the SCC website.

I think they just cross reference the new positive tests against the state vaccine database.

Our cases are falling already, after only about 2-3 weeks of 5000 cases per day. That's significant, but still a small fraction of a county with 2M people. I don't think you can call it natural herd immunity unless your testing is missing 90%-95% of new cases.

 

[Kicker 2.0]

Not joking at all.

Unvaccinated people may be uncommon in some places, but they make up a large fraction of currently infectious people.

For SCC, unvaccinated are 15% of the population. But they test positive at almost 6x the rate of everyone else. The net effect is that about half of all new infections are unvaccinated people.

Then remember that vaccinated people spend less time at peak viral load. With that, more than half of currently infectious people are unvaccinated. Far more than half if you live in a county with a lower vax rate.

Given that, it's entirely possible you and your friends got omicron from unvaccinated people who just happen to like the same bar, restaurant, coffee shop, or gym as you do. There are lots of infected unvaccinated people, you enjoy indoor establishments, and omicron is very contagious.

That is not proof or even close, but it certainly isn't obvious the other way, either.

You have research to prove that for Omicron?

I think at this point we’ve seen you rearrange the parameters to fit your narrative enough to see what hat you are willing to ignore the obvious.

 

[what-happened]

Yes, I believe what I write.

Why does it matter? Because, if 80% of transmission is coming from 20% of people, then that tells you where your energy needs to go.

these numbers?

 

[what-happened]

Put it this way, I don't see a case that it is "obvious" that R for vax to vax is above 1.

Not obvious that it is below 1, either.

how is it not above 1?

 

[watfly]

The 6X number is from the SCC website.

I think they just cross reference the new positive tests against the state vaccine database.

Our cases are falling already, after only about 2-3 weeks of 5000 cases per day. That's significant, but still a small fraction of a county with 2M people. I don't think you can call it natural herd immunity unless your testing is missing 90%-95% of new cases.

So let me ask you this...if the vaccinated can still spread the virus and represent half the cases, why do you still think its appropriate to discriminate against and vilify the unvaccinated? If its based on rate of spread, where do you draw that line in the sand? If the unvaxx spread it 10% more? 50%? 100%? 600%? Seems incredibly arbitrary and non-sciency to me.

 

[dad4]

how is it not above 1?

If the unvax-vax transmission rate is high enough, vax cases will grow even if vax-vax transmission is below 1.

 

[Hüsker Dü]

It's going to be interesting to see how this Spotify thing plays out. Could just be a flash in the pan, but if more artists follow suit it could literally take down Spotify. The pressure could be too much for their board / stock holders. The other interesting thing about this "cancel" attempt is its free market driven. Neil Young is within his rights to say he doesn't want to have his music on their platform and users are within their rights to cancel their membership. There could be a downward spiral effect where other less political users cancel because their favorite musicians have left. This is definitely different than a platform proactively removing users (Orange Man on Twitter for example). You can't even add regulation here. Time for some popcorn.

“Hope Neil Young will remember
Southern man don’t need him around anyhow”
Neil Young doesn’t care, he’s an artist that follows his own path, remember “Trans”? I don’t believe anyone else of great consequence will follow his lead in this age of soulless commercialism. Money doesn’t care about politics, just revenue.

 

[Desert Hound]

So let me ask you this...if the vaccinated can still spread the virus and represent half the cases, why do you still think its appropriate to discriminate against and vilify the unvaccinated? If its based on rate of spread, where do you draw that line in the sand? If the unvaxx spread it 10% more? 50%? 100%? 600%? Seems incredibly arbitrary and non-sciency to me.

Because his theory is the reason the vaxxed are spreading it is because they get it from the unvaxxed.

It is unsupported of course but that seems to be where he is taking this.

 

[Desert Hound]

And now we have a STEALTH VERSION.

Probably should lock down and close schools again just to make sure...eh?

Stealth omicron is a subvariant of omicron. Why is it called stealth omicron? You cannot identify the type of variant through a PCR test like you can with omicron. Genomic sequencing has to be conducted in a specialized lab to identify the variant, which takes longer. In Denmark, where stealth omicron cases are rapidly increasing, it went from 20% of cases in December, to 45% of cases two weeks ago, and now it’s about 65% of cases. “It’s moving fast, it’s taking over the landscape,” said Dr. Peter Chin-Hong, infectious disease specialist at University of California San Francisco.

https://www.star-telegram.com/news/coronavirus/article257785748.html

 

[Grace T.]

Long COVID is rare in children and of limited duration....

Long COVID symptoms and duration in SARS-CoV-2 positive children — a nationwide cohort study - European Journal of Pediatrics

Most children have a mild course of acute COVID-19. Only few mainly non-controlled studies with small sample size have evaluated long-term recovery from SARS-CoV-2 infection in children. The aim of this study was to evaluate symptoms and duration of ‘long COVID’ in children. A nationwide cohort...

link.springer.com

 

[dad4]

Because his theory is the reason the vaxxed are spreading it is because they get it from the unvaxxed.

It is unsupported of course but that seems to be where he is taking this.

You are still trying to speak for me, and still getting it wrong.

As I said earlier, I do not know whether the omicron vax-vax transmission rate is above or below 1.

Neither do you. Nor do you seem the least bit interested in figuring it out.

Now click the laugh emoji.

 

[watfly]

Any one know the status of the "winter of death" and the "twindemic"? Asking for a friend.

 

[dad4]

So let me ask you this...if the vaccinated can still spread the virus and represent half the cases, why do you still think its appropriate to discriminate against and vilify the unvaccinated? If its based on rate of spread, where do you draw that line in the sand? If the unvaxx spread it 10% more? 50%? 100%? 600%? Seems incredibly arbitrary and non-sciency to me.

Vilify?

If you are unvaccinated and choose to take other precautions, you have my respect. I have no problem with someone who declines the vax but wears a mask and chooses to spend their time outside. Not the path I picked, but certainly a path which respects the health of those around you.

If you are unvaccinated and insist on visiting bars, restaurants, gyms, and other high risk places, then that is a different question.

 

[espola]

“Hope Neil Young will remember
Southern man don’t need him around anyhow”
Neil Young doesn’t care, he’s an artist that follows his own path, remember “Trans”? I don’t believe anyone else of great consequence will follow his lead in this age of soulless commercialism. Money doesn’t care about politics, just revenue.

One of LS biggest hits v. one of Young's forgettables.

 

[watfly]

As I said earlier, I do not know whether the omicron vax-vax transmission rate is above or below 1.

I'll admit, I don't know and I don't care...or more explicitly I don't give an F about R's. I'll I need to know is what I'm seeing with my own eyes that its spreading quite easily among the vaccinated. Math equations don't change reality no matter how hard you try. Is it your opinion that vaccination mandates should be based on R values? What's your end game with R values?