Surf Cup

dad4 said:
Agree the change could and should have happened months go.

My county is moving back to red, too.

But I am mostly mad at the county for opening up indoor dining. We had the CDC report. We knew indoor dining was a risk. And they did it anyway.

Now cases are four times as high, and restaurants are closed again. It gave them a grand total of four weeks of revenue, and screwed up our disease control program for months.
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Did they share the number of cases that are linked to indoor dining?
 
Keepermom2 said:
Did they share the number of cases that are linked to indoor dining?
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We wouldn’t know. Our contact tracing stinks. The vast majority of cases are not linked to anything.

If you had to go by contact tracing, you would conclude that the disease spreads by magic.

There are good studies on restaurants/bars causing covid transmission, but they are on the statistical analysis level, not the individual case level. We can tell you that we are 99.9% certain that indoor dining raises covid rates, but we can’t tell you whether Bob got covid at McDonald’s.
 
dad4 said:
We wouldn’t know. Our contact tracing stinks. The vast majority of cases are not linked to anything.

If you had to go by contact tracing, you would conclude that the disease spreads by magic.

There are good studies on restaurants/bars causing covid transmission, but they are on the statistical analysis level, not the individual case level. We can tell you that we are 99.9% certain that indoor dining raises covid rates, but we can’t tell you whether Bob got covid at McDonald’s.
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The studies are without social distancing, limiting of patrons and other protocols. See, that is the problem. Decisions are being made based on science without protocols.
 
Keepermom2 said:
The studies are without social distancing, limiting of patrons and other protocols. See, that is the problem. Decisions are being made based on science without protocols.
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The studies are of the summer reopenings, complete with restricted capacity, social distancing, and the rest of it.

We tried opening with lots of clorox and putting a tape X on the seats. Turns out, it is still a bad idea for people from 5-10 different homes to go to the same room, all take their masks off, and eat and talk for 75 minutes.

It just got worse, because now the restaurant closes their windows because it is cold. When they did the studies, those windows were open.
 
dad4 said:
We wouldn’t know. Our contact tracing stinks. The vast majority of cases are not linked to anything.

If you had to go by contact tracing, you would conclude that the disease spreads by magic.

There are good studies on restaurants/bars causing covid transmission, but they are on the statistical analysis level, not the individual case level. We can tell you that we are 99.9% certain that indoor dining raises covid rates, but we can’t tell you whether Bob got covid at McDonald’s.
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Doubtful indoor dining is the cause of your spike. I looked at the top 7 zip codes making up 40% of your cases. They are low income areas which is consistent with the pattern throughout California.

Please show the studies you are referring to.
 
Keepermom2 said:
Doubtful indoor dining is the cause of your spike. I looked at the top 7 zip codes making up 40% of your cases. They are low income areas which is consistent with the pattern throughout California.

Please show the studies you are referring to.
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Our restaurant workers all live in low income areas. Mostly east San Jose. Lots of restaurants there, too. They tend to be cheaper and more crowded.

The most recent is from Stanford and Northwestern, published in Nature.

www.nature.com

Mobility network models of COVID-19 explain inequities and inform reopening - Nature

An epidemiological model that integrates fine-grained mobility networks illuminates mobility-related mechanisms that contribute to higher infection rates among disadvantaged socioeconomic and racial groups, and finds that restricting maximum occupancy at locations is especially effective for...
www.nature.com www.nature.com

The best known is the CDC study.

www.cdc.gov

Community and Close Contact Exposures Associated with COVID-19 ...

Community and close contact exposures continue to drive the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. CDC and other public health authorities recommend community mitigation strategies ...
www.cdc.gov www.cdc.gov

I’m not saying that home gatherings aren’t a major problem, too. They are. It’s the same phenomenon. People from multiple households go to the same room, take off their masks, and spend 90 minutes eating and talking.

(Yes, we are doing a solo Turkey day this year. Probably a zoom Christmas as well. Bleah. There it is.)
 
dad4 said:
Our restaurant workers all live in low income areas. Mostly east San Jose. Lots of restaurants there, too. They tend to be cheaper and more crowded.

The most recent is from Stanford and Northwestern, published in Nature.

www.nature.com

Mobility network models of COVID-19 explain inequities and inform reopening - Nature

An epidemiological model that integrates fine-grained mobility networks illuminates mobility-related mechanisms that contribute to higher infection rates among disadvantaged socioeconomic and racial groups, and finds that restricting maximum occupancy at locations is especially effective for...
www.nature.com www.nature.com

The best known is the CDC study.

www.cdc.gov

Community and Close Contact Exposures Associated with COVID-19 ...

Community and close contact exposures continue to drive the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. CDC and other public health authorities recommend community mitigation strategies ...
www.cdc.gov www.cdc.gov

I’m not saying that home gatherings aren’t a major problem, too. They are. It’s the same phenomenon. People from multiple households go to the same room, take off their masks, and spend 90 minutes eating and talking.

(Yes, we are doing a solo Turkey day this year. Probably a zoom Christmas as well. Bleah. There it is.)
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Your first article proves the point I was making: "Our model also correctly predicts higher infection rates among disadvantaged racial and socioeconomic groups2–8 solely from differences in mobility: we find that disadvantaged groups have not been able to reduce mobility as sharply, and that the POIs they visit are more crowded and therefore higher-risk."

The second study does not show a causal link just a guess based on activities and it doesn't consider the adequacy of protocols in place nor compliance with those protocols.

The fact our State doesn't have an adequate contract tracing program to make informed decisions does not give them the right to guess at causes and make decisions from that information.

You will be traveling to play soccer so please stop with the holier than though attitude.
 
Keepermom2 said:
Your first article proves the point I was making: "Our model also correctly predicts higher infection rates among disadvantaged racial and socioeconomic groups2–8 solely from differences in mobility: we find that disadvantaged groups have not been able to reduce mobility as sharply, and that the POIs they visit are more crowded and therefore higher-risk."

The second study does not show a causal link just a guess based on activities and it doesn't consider the adequacy of protocols in place nor compliance with those protocols.

The fact our State doesn't have an adequate contract tracing program to make informed decisions does not give them the right to guess at causes and make decisions from that information.

You will be traveling to play soccer so please stop with the holier than though attitude.
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"thou"
 
Keepermom2 said:
Your first article proves the point I was making: "Our model also correctly predicts higher infection rates among disadvantaged racial and socioeconomic groups2–8 solely from differences in mobility: we find that disadvantaged groups have not been able to reduce mobility as sharply, and that the POIs they visit are more crowded and therefore higher-risk."

The second study does not show a causal link just a guess based on activities and it doesn't consider the adequacy of protocols in place nor compliance with those protocols.

The fact our State doesn't have an adequate contract tracing program to make informed decisions does not give them the right to guess at causes and make decisions from that information.

You will be traveling to play soccer so please stop with the holier than though attitude.
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What do you want them to do?

Do nothing while waiting for evidence?

Or take their best guess and make decisions based on inadequate evidence?

There is not a third choice.
 
dad4 said:
What do you want them to do?

Do nothing while waiting for evidence?

Or take their best guess and make decisions based on inadequate evidence?

There is not a third choice.
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I want them to pull their head out of their ass and make decisions to solve the problems they have created like outdoor sports being ignored resulting in about 100k of people traveling every weekend to play sports and playing outdoor sports in indoor facilities that is currently on the rise.

I want them to look at the zip codes of where the spike in cases are, look at what has been learned in other states where there was no restriction on a given activity, and weigh the risk of death now (has decreased by 30% since beginning) to the overall impact resulting from restriction decisions. Maybe they should call in some business analysts to help them with decision trees because they obviously lack the basics.

I want them to stop making decisions as if there is no information available.

I want them to stop with the blanket restrictions and restrict where the risk is identified.

There are alternatives they just lack the experience or organizational structure to accomplish it.
 
Maybe they should take the money they have allotted for reviewing a vaccine that will already be reviewed by the FDA and invest in some analysts to help with analyzing the information.

I am out on this argument because I need to help my daughter spend the $20k she made from unemployment because government systems are so antiquated that they can't even allow for variables like....if part time, pay this or if earnings rate is X than pay Y.
 
soccer4us said:
I'm hearing today CA will put out youth sports update this week and will include NO travel out of start until at least Jan. 1st which would kill mayors cup and Surf cup I'm guessing too. On a positive, If you're in the orange tier or yellow, soccer game vs team in county or bordering county will be allowed. I'm guessing many counties even in orange tiers today may drop to red soon though but soccer games wouldn't be allowed. Anyone else hear this?? This is just rumors for now but makes some sense based on patterns set forth by the state.
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You're trying to make me flip out.
dad4 said:
Agree the change could and should have happened months go.

My county is moving back to red, too.

But I am mostly mad at the county for opening up indoor dining. We had the CDC report. We knew indoor dining was a risk. And they did it anyway.

Now cases are four times as high, and restaurants are closed again. It gave them a grand total of four weeks of revenue, and screwed up our disease control program for months.
Click to expand...
did those restaurants open up to 100% capacity or did they limit indoor dining?
 
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