State Cup

So it looks like...
Bracket A...Blues and Slammers Crowley

Bracket B...Surf is a lock...LA Surf HW is in with a tie/win but need to keep it close and Blues Leslie needs a big win...

Bracket C...Eagles advance with a tie/win OR Pateadores ties/loss, Slammers advance with tie/win, Pateadores win and they're in...

Bracket D...Slammers FC & Beach SB are both in but will battle for first...loser plays Bracket A#2 winner plays Wildcard#1, there is a lot to play for

Bracket E...Blues Shelton is in, Empire need a tie/win...Bracket winner has to play Bracket F#2 which is winner of Rebels/Legends, 2nd place is against Bracket F#1...Blues Shelton have a real predicament here...win and you're likely to play Rebels or lose and you're likely to play Sporting Slammers...

Bracket F..Sporting Slammers wins the group...Rebels/Legends are playing for 2nd place

Wildcard (3 spots) There are a lot of ways this can play out but most likely 4 points gets you into the next round...Blues Leslie/LA Surf HW and City SC/Empire will probably claim 2 of the spots...3rd spot likely is a 3 point team with best GD...theres also a scenario where Bracket B#3 Bracket C#3 Bracket E#3 Bracket F#3 all have 4 points and one of them does not make it through
 
TheStr1kerz said:
Bracket E...Blues Shelton is in, Empire need a tie/win...Bracket winner has to play Bracket F#2 which is winner of Rebels/Legends, 2nd place is against Bracket F#1...Blues Shelton have a real predicament here...win and you're likely to play Rebels or lose and you're likely to play Sporting Slammers...
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Dont think you want to go into the knockout rounds on a loss, esp when the team is finally starting to pick up some momentum.

Win Bracket E and face Rebels and then Slammers AW/Beach/Wild Card 1
Tank Finish 2nd and face Sporting Slammers and then Slammers Crowley Elite/Eagles/Wild Card 2

Finshing 2nd is more appetizing especially if Eagles wins their bracket (no offense but they just played in December to a draw) playing against two teams that over achieved and you have beat in the past
 
Just can’t see teams purposely trying not to win at this age , but nothing would surprise me

There is really only 2 teams that can win this thing ( maybe 3) , so just go out and play and have fun :)
 
Brav520 said:
Just can’t see teams purposely trying not to win at this age , but nothing would surprise me

There is really only 2 teams that can win this thing ( maybe 3) , so just go out and play and have fun :)
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If they would gain more from a loss than a win you better believe SO cal blues is thinking about it. You definitely don't say that to the families or the players but you make sure that it happens
 
JabroniBeater805 said:
Sporting Slammers and Eagles are the bracket busters. On the first day, 18 of 24 (75%) results were accurately predicted using YSR's predictor model. Sporting Slammers and Eagles accounted for 4 of the 6 inaccurate predictions. The other two were Pats vs DMCV Sharks (predicted a 1-1 tie, ended up a 4-1 win for Pats) and City SC vs Blues Shelton (predicted a 2-0 City win, ended up a 2-1 Blues win). I'll post more data after group rounds are over.
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YSR Predictor Model predicted 11/12 results correctly this past weekend (only Eagles vs Sharks was wrong). In total, YSR accurately predicted 29/36 group stage games (80.6%). This is an increase over Vegas Cup's 66.7% accuracy. Interestingly enough, every Eagles game prediction was incorrect.
 
JabroniBeater805 said:
YSR Predictor Model predicted 11/12 results correctly this past weekend (only Eagles vs Sharks was wrong). In total, YSR accurately predicted 29/36 group stage games (80.6%). This is an increase over Vegas Cup's 66.7% accuracy. Interestingly enough, every Eagles game prediction was incorrect.
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It looks to me like there are two Eagles 2012 teams, both now being called Eagles SC (2012G). (One ranked 18th in state with a Coach Farrar, and one ranked 77th with a Coach Bozzi). Second one (Bozzi) was called Eagles White up until the most recent State Cup results assigned to them, where they were entered as "Eagles Soccer Club G2012". I wondered whether those results should really be assigned to the other, higher ranked team also called Eagles SC, but it looks like they played on the same days in separate State Cup events, so they likely couldn't be the same team. If that really is the White team, it should show as renamed back to that once they enter their next event and the results are pulled in.


Screenshot_20230202_124249_Rankings.jpgScreenshot_20230202_124308_Rankings.jpgScreenshot_20230202_124324_Rankings.jpgScreenshot_20230202_124336_Rankings.jpgScreenshot_20230202_124347_Rankings.jpgScreenshot_20230202_124357_Rankings.jpg
 
RandomSoccerFan said:
It looks to me like there are two Eagles 2012 teams, both now being called Eagles SC (2012G). (One ranked 18th in state with a Coach Farrar, and one ranked 77th with a Coach Bozzi). Second one (Bozzi) was called Eagles White up until the most recent State Cup results assigned to them, where they were entered as "Eagles Soccer Club G2012". I wondered whether those results should really be assigned to the other, higher ranked team also called Eagles SC, but it looks like they played on the same days in separate State Cup events, so they likely couldn't be the same team. If that really is the White team, it should show as renamed back to that once they enter their next event and the results are pulled in.


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I can confirm that the results are accurate. Two things I can think of as to why the team out performed the predictor: 1. They got better or 2. The predictor model didn't like the close games against lower ranked opposition during the fall season. The rankings tend to move when the margins of victory are greater. Mind you - it doesn't accounts for the team playing up against older competition (and maybe it shouldn't).
 
JabroniBeater805 said:
Mind you - it doesn't accounts for the team playing up against older competition (and maybe it shouldn't).
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Not sure where this belief comes from, but the model for SR absolutely accounts for teams playing up (or down, or even across gender). Every team entity has its own standalone rating, that adjusts over time due to results against other teams with their own standalone ratings. Now the validity and predictability of those comparative ratings depends on how much relevant data exists. If a team plays up occasionally, the validity is likely pretty strong. If a team never plays any adjacent age groups, the validity probably isn't as strong. If there is limited to no data for teams playing up or down for any of the teams that the initial team played either, or even one further step removed, the validity is likely lower still.
 
(tried to edit original, but ran into the 4 minute timer!)

You're right though, they definitely outperformed their existing rating, as shown by the results in their game history for the state cup - performed as expected against the Sharks, and overperformed in the two other games (marked in green) - all of which helps the rating move up over time.

eagles state cup.jpg
 
Story lines of the group stage...
The rise of Sporting Slammers...
LAFC So Cal Youth parents fighting each other and the coach...
Empire and LA Surf imploding before the next round of state cup...
 
TheStr1kerz said:
Story lines of the group stage...
The rise of Sporting Slammers...
LAFC So Cal Youth parents fighting each other and the coach...
Empire and LA Surf imploding before the next round of state cup...
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I don't think the name Sporting Slammers is ever going to sound correct to my ears. It's like hearing of a new sports apparel called Nike Adidas, or the new soda Fanta Coke. Just pick one brand and/or location, or make a novel name. Next up Galaxy Surf, and Rams Legends teams.
 
TheStr1kerz said:
Coach picked who was taking the spot kick and a moron told his DD to go take it instead. Coach benched the DD and the dad lost his shit and it continued with the parents in the parking lot
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The dad is a donkey. A parent on the LAFC team has the ego to act like this??? What a muppet to try to over rule the coach on a PK
 
USYNT said:
Who do we have taking it in the next round ?
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Here are my predictions for the next weekend...
Blues Lime v Legends...Blues
Surf v CFA Riptide...Surf
Slammers HB Elite v Blues Leslie...Slammers
Slammers FC AW v City SC...Slammers
Empire v Rebels...Rebels
Sporting Slammers v Blues Shelton....Blues
Slammers HB Crowley v Beach...Slammers
Eagles v LA Surf...Eagles

Next round
Blues Lime v Eagles...Blues
Surf v Slammers HB Crowley...Surf
Slammers HB Elite v Blues Shelton...Slammers
Slammers FC Aw v Rebel...Rebels
 
TheStr1kerz said:
Here are my predictions for the next weekend...
Blues Lime v Legends...Blues
Surf v CFA Riptide...Surf
Slammers HB Elite v Blues Leslie...Slammers
Slammers FC AW v City SC...Slammers
Empire v Rebels...Rebels
Sporting Slammers v Blues Shelton....Blues
Slammers HB Crowley v Beach...Slammers
Eagles v LA Surf...Eagles

Next round
Blues Lime v Eagles...Blues
Surf v Slammers HB Crowley...Surf
Slammers HB Elite v Blues Shelton...Slammers
Slammers FC Aw v Rebel...Rebels
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Seems reasonable; those are SR's picks all the way down the line save 1 - SR goes for LA Surf over Eagles (barely). It's close to a toss-up.
 
RandomSoccerFan said:
Seems reasonable; those are SR's picks all the way down the line save 1 - SR goes for LA Surf over Eagles (barely). It's close to a toss-up.
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That game & Sporting Slammers v Blues Shelton was tough for me. I just know that LA Surf lost the starting forward to Beach right before State Cup. Hard to over come that but kudos to them if they do...
 
I agree. The hw surf vs eagles should be the closest. Two strong teams with great defenses. May go to PK, with two good goalies
 
USYNT said:
I agree. The hw surf vs eagles should be the closest. Two strong teams with great defenses. May go to PK, with two good goalies
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There are actually some great match ups here according to the teams. I definitely see some suprises in store for the next rounds.

Here's YSR's prediction. The ones that ended in a draw I went with who has the higher Win% according to the app.

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