Not really looking for the ok from a coach.
I'd like to see an honest risk analysis done by someone who is great with statistics and doesn't care a bit about sports. ( I'd do it, but I fall short on both requirements. )
New Research on Covid Transmission
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I'd like to see an honest risk analysis done by someone who is great with statistics and doesn't care a bit about sports. ( I'd do it, but I fall short on both requirements. )
Is this like the tobacco companies saying that doctors recommend Camel cigarettes?
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Same here.
I read the Surf Cup "whitepaper" and it's shockingly low on actual data and context. It looks like a high school senior research paper with just some top-line statistics with advocacy thrown in there.
The "whitepaper" is missing some key information, which is needed to make a non-bias assessment. Such as:
- Were all the training sessions distanced training?
- What percentage of those training sessions fully distanced and which percentage had players in relatively close contact?
- Of the 6,560 players and 263 coaches, what percentage were tested and how often?
- To truly determine transmission, how many families of those 6,560 players were tested and the ones that tested positive?
- How aggressive were the clubs checking with players and their families for any illnesses? What was the protocol?
The last three points are critical. We already know the vast majority of kids under 18 are asymptomatic carriers. So if we don't know the percentage of players tested for COVID then we have no idea the real transmission rate because we're not checking for asymptomatic carriers. It's just players and families who are self reporting. And as someone with kids at couple of those clubs, I know first-hand they weren't actively checking if their players or families had COVID. My daughter has been in and out of practice for months yet my club never bothered to check if something was wrong with our family. We could have easily had COVID and quarantined and the club never would have known unless we self-reported. You would hope people would self-report but there is a stigma with having COVID and the clubs aren't exactly looking to increase the case count, so it's certainly plausible why a family wouldn't report it.
The only thing this study proved was that distanced training, even with slightly varying safety standards, does not cause widespread illness for players 6 to 18. We already knew that, but that is still comforting. However this study proves nothing whatsoever on transmission. If they actually wanted to scientifically answer that question, then all 6 clubs should have tested all their players every week or two during the 8 weeks. And then trace and test down to family members if a positive case appeared. But they didn't do that. This study is basically napkin math when it comes to transmissions.
At the end of the whitepaper it says they want to use the Scientific Method and use a step by step approach with pilot programs for more intense play. That's a sensible approach but if they want Part 2 of the study to have more substance, they need to actively test all participants so they can actually answer or shed light if a full contact mask-less game increases transmissions or not. They'll also need to collect information from participants like if the player is doing virtual learning or in-person for school. That could corrupt/affect the study as well.
To do a legit study like this it has to be more than a PR/advocacy paper, which is why I also think it would be better if a distinguished university with no skin in the game did a scientific study on the matter. But to Surf (and the clubs) credit, at least the conversation is getting back to being about the data and we can debate it.
Youth Sports COVID Safety Whitepaper - Surf Cup Sports
New Study Finds Limited COVID-19 Transmission During Outdoor Youth Sports in San Diego County Study offers path forward for San Diego County to safely reopen outdoor youth sports DEL MAR, CA, August 14, 2020 – Today Surf Cup Sports is announcing the results of an eight-week study...surfcupsports.com
It's pretty bold of Surf Sports to present what they call "our argument" in such a format, disguised to appear as if it were some sort of a scientific study.
When mass-produced cigarettes were brought into the popular market over a century ago, they were seen as a healthier alternative to cigars, pipes, and chewing tobacco.
Chalklines
GOLD
You think? How about just flat out fear of the unknown of the bat virus? Or, some say on here brain damage could come later if you catch that virus, like maybe year from now. Some say little kids who catch the corona could get lung damage or already have it without knowing and their little lungs will be ruined forever. We will all find out when the actual data comes in a year from now. So much speculation these days. There is wide spread fear with catching the corona or being the dummy who didnt know he or she had it and by messying around and not obeying the rules, you accidentally infect someone who has underlying health issues. That person is also to blame because he or she should have stayed inside away from others who might have it. Today my wife's niece turns 5 and this will be the first time the whole family see's each other since Christmas. We will see Grandma and Grandpa. Were all wearing mask and grand parents will be in one area of the house that was wiped down extra and disinfected earlier this morning. We also built a big plastic shield fence around them like the one at the bank. No hugging or high fives like we used to do with all the kids. Excessive heat wave warning out in Claremont so this will be a hot one today. Thank God for AC Tech guy who fixed my sister in law's ac last week. She called me for a contact and I hooked her up. Her son is a soccer baller at FC Golden State and will be taking on my dd in the 6th annual Family 1 v 1 tournament this evening when it's cooler. Dude is only 11 and he beats my dd all the time. She beats him too and is out for blood this year. Grandpa will go up on the roof ((single story)) and ref the game. Girls vs the Boys..........
Wow, that was swift and forceful. Let's see if Outlaw learns his lesson and comes back better for it. I got suspended last year for false advertising. Dom, if the Outlaw messes up again, whats the next level? Lifetime ban?
kickingandscreaming
PREMIER
Another honest question. At what point does significant evidence that indicates that outdoor sports activity is a very low-risk activity push the burden of proof to the claim that it is otherwise?
Keepermom2
GOLD
The "study" term made me laugh out loud. Someone said on another chat board that it looked like an excel spreadsheet with data points.
The obvious questions I have is as follows:
1. Why would MLS put everyone in a bubble, and test them every day preventing them from playing if they tested positive, if the risk of spread playing soccer was low?
2. Why would more than half of the college sports conferences cancel the fall season if the risk of spread was low?
3. Before printing of this article, Surf Cup should have had the parents present heart tests for the kids that tested positive since it has been learned that COVID could cause issues in the heart which was noted as one of the reasons that certain college conferences pulled the plug on the fall. As they said, we don't know what we don't know. (The study that discussed the heart issue was small, and larger studies are needed, but one of the head doctors for the conference noted that he had been contacted by several people about heart issues after a bout with COVID).
It doesn't. We are both just guessing.
Soccer is outdoor and mostly separated, therefore low risk. Soccer involves people breathing heavily without masks, therefore high risk.
My guess is low risk overall, but that is only a guess.
This is why I would love to see a university study of athletes in Texas or Florida that actually tries to figure it out. Test every kid in the North Texas league, do a cluster analysis, and tell me whether connections through soccer seems a likely risk factor.
Good guess
Not_that_Serious
GOLD
You have to also consider the source. The author isn’t the most trustworthy of people. Some other people on the boards know her as well. Surf would never pay anyone to put this out. This is a bit likeYouth Sports COVID Safety Whitepaper - Surf Cup Sports
New Study Finds Limited COVID-19 Transmission During Outdoor Youth Sports in San Diego County Study offers path forward for San Diego County to safely reopen outdoor youth sports DEL MAR, CA, August 14, 2020 – Today Surf Cup Sports is announcing the results of an eight-week study...
Some of us on the board know the author personally and isn’t the most trustworthy source. She doesn’t have a background that would lend to writing a solid scientific article. She would also NEVER take money money to write slanted articles. She would NEVER have other people write articles for her and put her name on them. That isn’t even getting in to if the actual science. Every industry does this type of “white paper”. Automobile, Pharmaceutical, Industrial Materials, etc. They own or pay someone to put out a positive study. The “data” may very well be solid, but all goes in the dumpster once you peel back the skin and see there is some rot.
Chalklines
GOLD
Ive been in touch with my old staff in North Texas. High school football hasn't skipped a beat for over a month but understand there's a bigger push for football since it's an avenue out of poverty and a free education. Sr year is what every football player preperes for since putting pads on at pee wee level.
North Texas won't be canceling the season Austins another story. Delays, Masks, limited attendance etc.Just like what we will see out here.
kickingandscreaming
PREMIER
Cluster analysis? The virus isn't coy. It doesn't play hard to get. When you do things that spread it, there's no hiding the results. Go inside and socialize (see below), go to a house party, go on a cruise ship, etc. your risk is very high. The only thing we need to guess for outdoor sports is, how small?
Anatomy of a super spreader: Harper’s outbreak a caution for college bars | Bridge Michigan
As Michigan State University students return to campus this fall, a popular East Lansing bar hopes to reopen after closing last month in the wake of a COVID-19 outbreak linked to 188 infections. But under a new deal, Harper’s Restaurant and Brewpub must make a host of changes.
Was this before or after doctors stopped using leeches to cure hemorrhoids?
If Texas has had 378 cases among soccer players, how do you know whether soccer is at all involved? It could just be a reflection of the covid levels in the community.Cluster analysis? The virus isn't coy. It doesn't play hard to get. When you do things that spread it, there's no hiding the results. Go inside and socialize (see below), go to a house party, go on a cruise ship, etc. your risk is very high. The only thing we need to guess for outdoor sports is, how small?
Anatomy of a super spreader: Harper’s outbreak a caution for college bars | Bridge Michigan
As Michigan State University students return to campus this fall, a popular East Lansing bar hopes to reopen after closing last month in the wake of a COVID-19 outbreak linked to 188 infections. But under a new deal, Harper’s Restaurant and Brewpub must make a host of changes.www.bridgemi.com
You start to ask whether those 378 cases are connected to each other. Cluster analysis.
kickingandscreaming
PREMIER
I'm trying to understand the level of "risk of dying" here. Saying "could cause heart issues" is a f'ing cop-out. Is the risk higher than slipping in the shower, driving to Costco, skydiving? What is "small"? Is it 1%, 0.1%, 0.0000000000001%? The only reason to present it in this way, with zero context, is to promote a position that was already decided and to stoke fear that will support that position. They need to have some courage and actually put some numbers to it. I assume this condition can cause death in the general population. What is the risk there? I am not saying that the risk isn't significant, but they give ZERO actionable information unless someone is looking for the "risk of death" = 0.
kickingandscreaming
PREMIER
It's not that I don't believe in cluster analysis and it makes sense in these "studies". My point is that soccer (and football) training and games have been going on in North Texas in the midst of an outbreak that was worse than what we are currently in here in CA and there have been no indications of an outbreak associated with these activities. They are playing regular soccer and having tournaments - with definite restrictions on how crowds gather - but, otherwise, normal soccer. We have enough evidence to see that the actual activity of playing soccer is a low risk.
Full disclosure - I didn't read the Surf "study". An individual club that holds huge tournaments has too much incentive for me to trust for a "study". No offense meant to Surf by that. I'd feel the same for any club in that position. I base my position that soccer is low risk from the multitude of clubs actually playing regular soccer in Texas where the prevalence of the virus was at least as prevalent as it is here.