How’s the 2025-2026 season going?

RandomSoccerFan said:
This is for ECNL 2010G Southwest, right? In that case:

1. HBK
2. LA Breakers
3. Legends ECNL
4. Surf
5. Slammers FC


View attachment 36741
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Hey can you explain something about the ratings to me?
The app has Breakers 2nd - I'm looking at the actual ECNL standings and the Breakers are 4th in league. 5-2-2 record, +11 GD

The top 3 are HBK, Surf, Legends

Looking at the ECNL games actually played, they haven't played HBK or Surf (or Blues) yet - tied Slammers and lost to Beach and Legends

I'm just curious - and I know it mid season etc.
 
Beats me. I've got no insight that any other user looking at the same results would have. Looking at their game history, in late fall in Phoenix they handily beat the #17, #18, and #42 nationally. After that, they had very high scores / GD at Surf Cup. The SR ratings are close enough among these top teams, that it is/was enough to keep them pretty high. This weekend they are playing Surf, and are predicted to win 2-1. If it happens that way, it will just reinforce their rating - but if it proves to be incorrect, it's certainly possible it will start to shift a bit.
 
Ranking teams by SR isn't going to always duplicate how the teams rank in their bracket. It is often going to look similar - but it's not only that SR is including games with teams that aren't in the bracket, but it's also incorporating how large or small each victory/loss is while taking into account opponent strength, not just whether the team won/lost.
 
Accordingly, using SR to make future predictions about performance is often going to provide better results than solely using current bracket positions to predict future bracket positions.
 
SuperSoccerStar said:
Any take aways from this weekend?
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Surf beat Koge *and* Breakers. New rating is already shifted.

2010G 3-23.jpg

So for SW, it's now:

1. Surf
2. HBK
3. Breakers
4. Legends
5. So Cal Blues
 
RandomSoccerFan said:
Surf beat Koge *and* Breakers. New rating is already shifted.

View attachment 36919

So for SW, it's now:

1. Surf
2. HBK
3. Breakers
4. Legends
5. So Cal Blues
Click to expand...
Not with standing the metric of the ranking algorithm.....The ACTUAL ECNL standings for SW Conference .....

1. Surf - 12 games played, 30pts
2. HBK 12 games played, 28 pts
3. Legends, 11 games played, 22 pts
4. Beach 11 games played, 22 pts
5. Slammers 10 games played, 18 pts
these 5 currently qualify for ECNL playoff spots

6. Breakers 10 games played, 17 pts
7. PHX Rising, 12 games, 20 pts
8. Blues, 11 games, 18 pts
 
Yes - but even then you get into deciding whether the most correct answer is ranking purely by the number of points, or instead by PPG, and which represents the "better" team at this moment. All options are correct - they are three (including SR) different ways to decide how to rank teams. SR is ranking them by which team is expected to beat which team in the very next game. Standings are ranked by the record in league this season up to this point. Looking at it by PPG tries to normalize it for teams that have played different numbers of games - but by the end of the season it should catch up so all teams played the same number (or almost the same number) of games.
 
Objective said:
Not with standing the metric of the ranking algorithm.....The ACTUAL ECNL standings for SW Conference .....

1. Surf - 12 games played, 30pts
2. HBK 12 games played, 28 pts
3. Legends, 11 games played, 22 pts
4. Beach 11 games played, 22 pts
5. Slammers 10 games played, 18 pts
these 5 currently qualify for ECNL playoff spots

6. Breakers 10 games played, 17 pts
7. PHX Rising, 12 games, 20 pts
8. Blues, 11 games, 18 pts
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That’s weird as the standings look different to what you posted above when I looked on ECNLgirls.com. I just looked. Maybe not all results were in. Are these the latest standings?
 
futboldad1 said:
That’s weird as the standings look different to what you posted above when I looked on ECNLgirls.com. I just looked. Maybe not all results were in. Are these the latest standings?
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You are correct, the standings have been updated since my original collection. The conference plays 16 league games (I'm sure you know). At the moment, Legends, Beach, Breakers and Blues have a game in hand (possible 3 pts), and Slammers has 2 games in hand (possible 6 pts).

Could be a close race to the finish, no?

1. Surf - 12 games played, 30pts
2. HBK 12 games played, 28 pts
3. Legends, 11 games played, 22 pts
4. Beach 11 games played, 22 pts
5. Breakers 11 games played, 20 pts
these 5 currently qualify for ECNL playoff spots

6. Slammers 10 games played, 18 pts
7. PHX Rising, 12 games, 20 pts
8. Blues, 11 games, 18 pts
 
RandomSoccerFan said:
Yes - but even then you get into deciding whether the most correct answer is ranking purely by the number of points, or instead by PPG, and which represents the "better" team at this moment. All options are correct - they are three (including SR) different ways to decide how to rank teams. SR is ranking them by which team is expected to beat which team in the very next game. Standings are ranked by the record in league this season up to this point. Looking at it by PPG tries to normalize it for teams that have played different numbers of games - but by the end of the season it should catch up so all teams played the same number (or almost the same number) of games.
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I think of "ranking" and "standing" as two different items. And who wins the Cup, therefore crowned as Champions, as a third.

Definitely seeing this being played out in current March Madness.
 
Objective said:
You are correct, the standings have been updated since my original collection. The conference plays 16 league games (I'm sure you know). At the moment, Legends, Beach, Breakers and Blues have a game in hand (possible 3 pts), and Slammers has 2 games in hand (possible 6 pts).

Could be a close race to the finish, no?

1. Surf - 12 games played, 30pts
2. HBK 12 games played, 28 pts
3. Legends, 11 games played, 22 pts
4. Beach 11 games played, 22 pts
5. Breakers 11 games played, 20 pts
these 5 currently qualify for ECNL playoff spots

6. Slammers 10 games played, 18 pts
7. PHX Rising, 12 games, 20 pts
8. Blues, 11 games, 18 pts
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Close, but Koge is two points back and still has 3 tough games. Surf only has 2 tough games.

Surf 1, Koge 2.

More interesting is the Slammers, Beach, Breakers , Legends fight for the last 3 spots.
 
Agreed, no argument here. They are answering 3 different (yet similar) questions. How well did the team do vs. other teams in its bracket during the season, how well is the team expected to fare in their very next game, and did they win out in playoffs. In some cases the same team is dominant in all 3. In other cases it's not nearly as clear. And it's awesome when an "underdog" manages to take the championship.
 
Zeke said:
Close, but Koge is two points back and still has 3 tough games. Surf only has 2 tough games.

Surf 1, Koge 2.

More interesting is the Slammers, Beach, Breakers , Legends fight for the last 3 spots.
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3. Legends at 22 points. 5 games left: Still has to play SD Surf and Slammers. Predicting 3W/1L/1T 10 points -32
4. Beach at 22 points. 5 games left: Still has to play SD Surf and HBK. Predicting 3W/2L 9 points -31
5. Breakers at 20 points. 5 games left: Still has to play HBK. Predicting 3W/1L/1T 10 points -30
6. Slammers at 18 points. 6 games left: Still has HBK and Legends. Predicting 3W/2L/1T 11 points -29

Dark horse:
Phoenix Rising at 20 points: 4 games left: Toughest game is Breakers. Predicting 10 points. -30
Blues at 19 points: 5 games left: Still has to play Breakers. Predicting 3W/1L/1T 10 points -29
 
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