kickingandscreaming
PREMIER
My MIL got her 2nd Moderna shot today. She was very reluctant at first, despite my best efforts to explain the process, let her know many thousands (and now millions) have been vaccinated safely and, the biggest obstacle, that Trump couldn't make them put out a vaccine that wasn't safe. However, it took grandma's "Number one" - her only grandchild - to convince her. About 6 weeks ago "Number one" told her that she asked her Life Group at church to pray that her grandma will take the vaccine. Within days, grandma had her appointment and had her first shot less than two weeks later.Great news for your folks! My folks got theirs last week too (MDs).
Here's some other real good news. Am hearing from my pharma friend they expect the J&J EU authorization in the next 2-3 weeks.
I agree both cases and deaths will drop dramatically by March (in part because of seasonality and in part because of the vaccine and as dad points out in part because so many people have had it). Your math though isn't 100% correct. The kids under 16 and the 1/4 who have chosen not to get the shot don't really count since they will be still spreading COVID among themselves. The people who have already had it also may or may not count (because they are vaccinating them anyway, which is dumb, there's some overlap with the vaccinated...some of them also fall in the kid category). Then there's the issue of length of immunity/mutations...my son had it back in March....does he count?....we don't have a firm idea yet. Finally, it takes 2 shots to make that fully effective and those need to be spread more than a month so we aren't reaching (even with the J&J vaccine which is easier to admin) max voluntary immunity among those authorized until May (though someone correct me if I'm wrong but I think J&J is 1 dose)
But ultimately for California the issue is going to be that we are still going to have cases over March. Not a ton of them like we do now but enough that it will disrupt life. If you get a COVID positive kid, your school and your sports teams are still going to be shut down. If you get one at work, they'll still make everyone test (including stupidly those that have had the 2nd dose of the vaccine). They'll still be the horror stories of the 40 year old struck down in the prime of life. The teachers unions are setting it up that schools can't be fully reopened until the kids are vaccinated (which for under 12 isn't looking until 2022 and which won't be mandated until the EU label is removed). California will still force you to wear a mask. Disneyland will still be closed (prob summer) and mass sporting event with spectators not allowed. No tournaments or away camps this summer.
The case levels are sensitive enough that it's really really very hard to get to orange and yellow zones and remember there's still no green. In some low pop counties a handful of cases are enough to kick you into the orange.
"Open" everything is therefore a political question. It won't happen as long as Newsom and his team doesn't change his thinking and the standards are still geared to cases. If you live in Texas and Florida, yes absolutely.