You're right, that's how its being discussed. And that's part of the problem and none of us can change the prevailing narrative so it does make things more complicated. Agreed.
But at the same time, whether it's 1/1 or 8/1, it IS the same for all. In both scenarios, there will be variance in how it impacts one geography vs another based on school start date. BY cutoff isn't immune to that.
Double check my numbers...
For geographies with 8/1 school start, it changes it from 5 months of trapped players to 0 months.
For geographies with 9/1 school start, it changes it from 4 months of trapped players to 1 month.
As you stated, its significantly less. But for the population of Aug birthdays in geographies with 9/1 school start, does 8/1 cutoff really make it less attractive? Depends on how you look at it. For August birthday kids, they won't be playing with their classmates for the most part...BUT, they will be the oldest kid on the team and benefit from RAE. And if they are good enough and want to play with classmates, they might be able to play up. For those that can't play up and don't want to play with kids from the grade below, will some of them self-select out (or be weeded out)? I'm sure some will. And if you care about that, then you should really be against BY.
In BY, the percentage of trapped players is much bigger and the pool at risk of selecting/being weeded out is much bigger. And the statistics (other than NT level) indicate that is in fact happening. Also, in the current scenario, the second option of playing up is much more difficult for the Nov and Dec birthdays as the age-gap
will be even larger when trying to play up a year.
38 of 43 states have cutoffs that will not correspond with the 8/1 cutoff. 7 states have local district choice, so we don't know if this will affect them. But 38/50 is almost 40% will have automatic trapped players - so this shift isn't changing anything but who the trapped players are. There's also redshirted kids - they are growing in number and they won't be playing in their grad year either.