Trump's Big "Win": The Largest Budget Deficit With A Strong Economy
Trump will break the record
When you take into account how the economy is doing it shows that President Trump’s budget deficits as a percentage of GDP will exceed any other President’s during a time of economic expansion. From the
Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget or CFRB, the chart’s blue line shows the deficit as a percentage of GDP.
At the projected 4.6% for fiscal 2019 it will the be largest in a non-recession year and is expected to stay above this level in the future.
Obama had to navigate the Great Recession
When President Obama entered office the economy was in a free fall. The deficit hit 9.8% in fiscal 2019 but that was directly related to the Great Recession. As can be seen in the durable goods orders and housing charts below, they fell dramatically and bottomed just after Obama became President.
This led to much lower tax revenue (
2.4% of GDP per the CFRB) as people were laid off and companies made less money or even had losses. It also created higher spending (2.9% of GDP) for programs such as unemployment and food stamps.
Trump’s deficit will increase even as the economy grows
Multiple organizations ranging from the Congressional Budget Office to the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget are projecting that the Federal deficit will increase even as the economy grows. Their projections are for it to increase less in 2019 than 2018, but still have many years of growth even though the current economic expansion is about to hit a decade.
Trump seems to believe (or at least that is what he says and his advisors have told him) that reducing taxes and cutting regulations will grow the economy enough to solve the debt problem. Stephen Moore from the Heritage Foundation and Larry Kudlow, Trump’s Director of the National Economic Council, are two proponents. Unfortunately, in the first year of the tax cuts, the deficit increased from $666 billion in fiscal 2017 to $779 billion in fiscal 2018, an increase of $113 billion or 17%. It looks like they are on a path to $1 trillion or more as far as the eye can see.
https://www.forbes.com/sites/chuckj...t-deficit-with-a-strong-economy/#45957b2549d1