Thank you for proving to my point. ECRL is one main key factor, but so is GA competition. MVLA and Force can only prevent local clubs from joining for so long, but it seems AM and JB will not be able to stop this form happening. ECNL like every other league is a business and like any business, they need to expand.
Businesses don't "need to expand". History is littered with companies that failed relying on that trope. Most businesses do quite well as they are because they don't confuse business with a game of Risk. More importantly, you can't talk about this properly until you understand ECNL is just an association of its member clubs, so you need to look at the business interests of the members, not the league. Although they would certainly like to expand
their own clubs if it means more profit, the last thing they want to do is help their competitors take their business to their detriment. Only when adding new clubs benefits existing ones does addition make sense. It is very simple.
Surf is a great case study and people who know what to look for could see the train wreck coming. Surf excluded other local clubs from ECNL because it didn't want to lose business, no matter how little or short term. That was the right decision for many years until it wasn't. Surf wasn't a "monopoly" in the legal sense, but it was kinda like that with elite girls soccer in SD. Go figure, it eventually suffered a similar fate to many monopolies. Specifically, although Surf's ECNL veto allowed it to establish impossible barriers to entry to competitors, its lack of innovation, the market inefficiencies it caused, and its failure to sufficiently consider the long term impacts of its decisions caused it to lose it's perch at the top, or nearly did but for sheer luck.
Fast forward to GDA. SD reached a point that too many customers existed for Surf to adequately serve enough of them. The area is too vast with too many people. It left a gap for other clubs to develop sufficient resources that, in turn, allowed them to provide consistent training and competition that was close enough to what Surf provided at reasonable prices, and often less of a time burden to get to practice and games. Time is money and unnecessary gas money is also money. when the 800-pound national gorilla US Soccer came to Surf's little fiefdom and threatened to crush ECNL like a grape, other clubs had their chance. Suddenly, all Surf's power and control over elite girls soccer vaporized, leaving Surf to panic and join GDA as a hedge against getting killed off completely. All this left Surf unable to control the commodity of elite girls soccer in SD, leaving it no choice but to do what it could to just to stay in the mix.
In hindsight, Surf and ECNL should have admitted a few clubs much earlier, which would have better allowed them to minimize the short term impact on customer loss. In fact, it might have helped business by relieving some of the financial burden on customers for travel and allowing them to charge the same price for a slightly better product. More importantly, GDA probably would have been over before it started because it would have lacked the leverage to make Surf (and Blues) bend the knee using other pretty good clubs as leverage for the hostile takeover. The funny thing is Surf and Blues were saved by US Soccer's utter incompetence, primarily its failure to understand this is all just a business, parents are customers, it is only works by keeping this in mind at all times. When a club like MLVA in NorCal told US Soccer to stick it, it was the best (or maybe luckiest) decision it ever made. Tophat, on the other hand, got what was coming to a bully that has never played nice with its neighbors but now relying on them for forgiveness. It's sad to see what is happening to them, but payback's a bitch.
When people like crushy poo lament that clubs have all the power, they have no idea what they're talking about. Parents collectively have all the power, but things move slowly. What people like him are really railing against, but too stupid to understand, is that they didn't get what they wanted regardless of how unreasonable and how little economic sense it made.