Bad News Thread

[Grace T.]

Perhaps other people disagree with you about whether zero covid is possible?

After all, you begin by assuming that 1/3 to 2/3 of us refuse to wear masks, get vaccinated, or move social events outside. Under those assumptions, covid spreads widely. But that is not the only possible choice we have for our behavior.

A high vax rate and moderate mask/distance/outside norms are enough to drive hospitalizations near zero. Vermont is averaging one hospitalized covid patient right now. SF is around 25. Both have fewer than one covid death per day.

Now, if you want to open schools, burn your masks, and ban vaccine requirements, then you’re in Louisiana/Arkansas/Missouri territory, with around 1000 hospitalizations and 10 deaths per day.

But that is our choice. We don’t have to pick the stupid option.

Wow, I always thought you were one of the more level headed pro lockdowners. You actually believe zero COVID is possible in the foreseeable future??? You also were relatively thinking that this shouldn't be put on the children but now in the parade of horribles you list "open schools". You would really deprive children of another year of education and another year of their childhood? And when is the offramp for you: we were waiting for 14 days to slow the spread, then a month, then until the hospitals were ready, then until treatments were available, then until the elderly vaxxed, then until everyone offered a vax....what are we waiting for now?

I gotta say you were one of the more level headed blue pillers here. If you are representative of where the level headed ones are at, we are in for big problems here in around 6 weeks.

 

[watfly]

I see it everyday in disenfranchised communities. It's shame (or maybe not) that our police officers, firemen, and EMS folks are driving the train at the community level to educate those with the least information.

In low income communities, regardless of race, police, firemen and EMS folks are the primary care provider. Hence, those citizens are not as inclined to seek care from traditional healthcare sources and, as a result, unlikely to go to a clinic to get a vaccination. We need a different approach to get these individuals vaccinated.

 

[Ellejustus]

Wow, I always thought you were one of the more level headed pro lockdowners. You actually believe zero COVID is possible in the foreseeable future??? You also were relatively thinking that this shouldn't be put on the children but now in the parade of horribles you list "open schools". You would really deprive children of another year of education and another year of their childhood? And when is the offramp for you: we were waiting for 14 days to slow the spread, then a month, then until the hospitals were ready, then until treatments were available, then until the elderly vaxxed, then until everyone offered a vax....what are we waiting for now?

I gotta say you were one of the more level headed blue pillers here. If you are representative of where the level headed ones are at, we are in for big problems here in around 6 weeks.

The once level headed Dad got his head stuck in a vice.

 

[Grace T.]

Wow, I always thought you were one of the more level headed pro lockdowners. You actually believe zero COVID is possible in the foreseeable future??? You also were relatively thinking that this shouldn't be put on the children but now in the parade of horribles you list "open schools". You would really deprive children of another year of education and another year of their childhood? And when is the offramp for you: we were waiting for 14 days to slow the spread, then a month, then until the hospitals were ready, then until treatments were available, then until the elderly vaxxed, then until everyone offered a vax....what are we waiting for now?

I gotta say you were one of the more level headed blue pillers here. If you are representative of where the level headed ones are at, we are in for big problems here in around 6 weeks.

p.s. I told you masks for never be enough for you: you are back to masks + moving stuff outdoors, vaccine mandates and closing schools. The chatter over the weekend among the prolockdowners is that even they don't think the cloth masks are doing much (based on what's happening in Asia) against the delta...chatter is upgrading to surgical and N95s but N95s are still hard to get.

 

[EvilGoalie 21]

The "longer term damage" is being 89. No doubt his immune system has rec'd a lot of viral updates over that period too. A recommended approach for immunity is not the point I am making. The Fear Industry has made immunity a binary decision with vaccines on one side and death on the other. Any talk of therapies appear muted by the CDC and the Media. Six of the 80+ y.o. folks that I know survived corona pre-vax. All are doing well for being 80+. None of them were in a LTCF. If you have a choice, keep your parents out of those kill zones people.

Compared to the prime of life, as we age the stem cell populations in our body that get expanded to produce an antibody response inevitably decline. Mounting an active, acquired immune response (ie the ability to remember what you've been exposed to in the past and then producing the antibody response if re-challenged) becomes increasingly difficulty. Clean smart living can slow the decline, but within limits.

My take is the fear industry is largely self-manufactured, and is then exploitable, rather than the other way around. Look at the last two weeks of this thread. We are are on the downside of a global pandemic. In some ways we've been so, so lucky, but we did sorta-kinda manage to buy time for vaccines and those appear largely successful so far. First time in history. And yet its all about economic ruin, the tyranny of masks, why not bring in climate change too, government herding the sheeple, all that stuff. Don't really get it, but then I never liked "Goosebumps" either.

 

[Bruddah IZ]

But that is our choice. We don’t have to pick the stupid option.

You actually don't have an option. Me? I got options. Good diet, exercise, healthy weight, deep sea fishing, golfing without a cart, and clown identity to name a few.

 

[Ellejustus]

You actually don't have an option. Me? I got options. Good diet, exercise, healthy weight, deep sea fishing, golfing without a cart, and clown identity to name a few.

Great job Bruddah. I can;t do heavy lifting because of my bad back. However, I do light rock lifting, swimming and walking on da beach early every morning. I have no money to golf so I just swim for exercise. If you want to sponsor me a round with Hound someday I will take you guys on.

 

[EvilGoalie 21]

So we could have already been exposed but not exhibiting because our adaptive immune systems have rec'd the necessary updates?

If I follow, yeah. Anyone that got infected, even if they were basically healthy and exhibited little or no symptoms, will almost certainly have mounted an active immune response. If re-exposed to the virus that acquired immune response can be induced again. The "memory" gradually fades over time, but the time course is relatively slow compared to the pace of the pandemic. There is some evidence that the antibodies induced by the vaccine are more neutralizing than antibodies arising from natural infection, which I think is why health experts are like "why not both".

 

[Grace T.]

There is some evidence that the antibodies induced by the vaccine are more neutralizing than antibodies arising from natural infection, which I think is why health experts are like "why not both".

There's also been some evidence to the contrary, that natural immunity is more robust. I posted a study several weeks back. Also Dr. John Campbell (who is not a member of the red pill squad) has been running a series of talks over the last several weeks including interview with experts....it may be the immunity (at least relative to the Delta) from vaccines fades more rapidly over time (which is why he thinks we the US might have been better off spreading the injections like they did in the UK).

 

[Bruddah IZ]

Great job Bruddah. I can;t do heavy lifting because of my bad back. However, I do light rock lifting, swimming and walking on da beach early every morning. I have no money to golf so I just swim for exercise. If you want to sponsor me a round with Hound someday I will take you guys on.

Are either of you vets?

 

[dad4]

Wow, I always thought you were one of the more level headed pro lockdowners. You actually believe zero COVID is possible in the foreseeable future??? You also were relatively thinking that this shouldn't be put on the children but now in the parade of horribles you list "open schools". You would really deprive children of another year of education and another year of their childhood? And when is the offramp for you: we were waiting for 14 days to slow the spread, then a month, then until the hospitals were ready, then until treatments were available, then until the elderly vaxxed, then until everyone offered a vax....what are we waiting for now?

I gotta say you were one of the more level headed blue pillers here. If you are representative of where the level headed ones are at, we are in for big problems here in around 6 weeks.

Can we get to “zero”? It depends on which question you are asking and what assumptions you make.

Could we get to zero deaths per day? Absolutely. It would take 12 months and near universal vaccinations.

Can we get to zero cases while we all take our unvaccinated, unmasked selves out for dinner? Heck no.

Now, which question were you asking? Zero deaths by behaving well, or zero cases by behaving foolishly?

 

[Ellejustus]

Are either of you vets?

No. I love you all though. I tried to be a Marine in 1985 but failed one part of the ASVAB text. My recruiter told me to go to college and save myself. I dont remember the part I bombed. I was trying to figure out life sense I had no place to live after high school. My foster mom did her part and moved to Indio and I was left on my own to figure things out on this planet. I turned to Christ for help and joined a crazy cult soon after. I'm glad I did because I met my wife and got my crap together. I will say after I figured out it it was more about the 10%-15% and control, we left.

 

[EvilGoalie 21]

You actually don't have an option.

In some ways, I agree with you. As with so many things, it comes to individual vs collective action in a social context. We all do both-racing down the line to get that great parking space at surf cup and then waving our parking permit out the window to give away on the way out. Free stuff. This virus is going to get us to the real world approximate of herd immunity one way or another. The passive public health measures (masks, shut downs, etc) over the past year are examples of attempted collective action. The people to whom the virus poses no real (at least short term) health threat can be viewed paying a penalty so that the kindly shepherd can herd as many sheeple across the immunity line as possible, largely with the idea that the vaccines were coming at warp speed.

The other approach to herd immunity, of course, comes when the kindly shepherd gets impatient, which is coming soon. I personally would like to stay with the collective action approach until mid fall when the vaccine will probably be available for the elementary age kids. But then it is time-in this country-to transition to a pure individual action mode to achieving herd immunity, which is basically cull the herd. At that point what Dad4 says is true-all of use will have paid a penalty to provide options. For most of the vaccine hesitant or resistant it will not matter. For the susceptible it will.

 

[EvilGoalie 21]

There's also been some evidence to the contrary, that natural immunity is more robust. I posted a study several weeks back. Also Dr. John Campbell (who is not a member of the red pill squad) has been running a series of talks over the last several weeks including interview with experts....it may be the immunity (at least relative to the Delta) from vaccines fades more rapidly over time (which is why he thinks we the US might have been better off spreading the injections like they did in the UK).

The issue is induced antibody production versus neutralizing antibodies. The manner in which the S protein is exposed to antigen presenting cells with the vaccine allows more of the S protein surface to be presented to the immune system. And its not one vs the other. People in the prime of life who have a very robust immune system will have a more multi-faceted antibody response, and hence the probability of strong neutralizing antibodies, than older folks who get the vaccine.

 

[Bruddah IZ]

If I follow, yeah. Anyone that got infected, even if they were basically healthy and exhibited little or no symptoms, will almost certainly have mounted an active immune response. If re-exposed to the virus that acquired immune response can be induced again. The "memory" gradually fades over time, but the time course is relatively slow compared to the pace of the pandemic. There is some evidence that the antibodies induced by the vaccine are more neutralizing than antibodies arising from natural infection, which I think is why health experts are like "why not both".

Itʻs always been “why not both”. Except “why not both” is now riding on the coat tails of a global economic shut down because of a well known virus. Leveraging a .0002 IFR to shut down the global economy is pure fear mongering.

 

[Grace T.]

Can we get to “zero”? It depends on which question you are asking and what assumptions you make.

Could we get to zero deaths per day? Absolutely. It would take 12 months and near universal vaccinations.

Can we get to zero cases while we all take our unvaccinated, unmasked selves out for dinner? Heck no.

Now, which question were you asking? Zero deaths by behaving well, or zero cases by behaving foolishly?

Way to duck the schools question. I guess you are in favor of some form of school restriction but don't want to say it.

Zero COVID deaths is impossible as long as there is not zero COVID and zero COVID isn't going to happen any time soon. The issue will always be there are certain immunocompromised people who will succumb to COVID the same way as they do to flu. We don't have zero flu. We don't have zero RSV which takes a large number of elderly each year. We can get to near zero deaths where long periods go by when no one dies of COVID (as with RSV) but zero COVID (at least for years to come) is a fantasy.

 

[what-happened]

In low income communities, regardless of race, police, firemen and EMS folks are the primary care provider. Hence, those citizens are not as inclined to seek care from traditional healthcare sources and, as a result, unlikely to go to a clinic to get a vaccination. We need a different approach to get these individuals vaccinated.

We'd rather make it about partisan politics and project agendas that don't provide positive outcomes for these communities.. The ones who benefit are those in some sort of office or position of power - provides them job security.

I know I'm beating a dead horse. To many, the black and brown vaccine issue is the ugly truth. Making it political is easier and much less dirty.

 

[Ellejustus]

The issue is induced antibody production versus neutralizing antibodies. The manner in which the S protein is exposed to antigen presenting cells with the vaccine allows more of the S protein surface to be presented to the immune system. And its not one vs the other. People in the prime of life who have a very robust immune system will have a more multi-faceted antibody response, and hence the probability of strong neutralizing antibodies, than older folks who get the vaccine.

BS!!!!

 

[espola]

Politically in the us this is all going to come to a head in 3–4 weeks just as kids are going back to school. I can’t imagine the Biden admin publicly acknowledges zero covid Is not possible: would tick off his base and force him to acknowledge the critics were right over a year ago. But if we do a new round of lockdowns on top of the supply problems and inflationary pressures already there it’s just going to sink his presidency (same as it did ultimately trumps).

Interestingly the Uk is still in decline. The peak coincided with their freedom day. How much of an upturn in cases (if any) happens in the next few days will tell us what impact (if any) nonstringent npis really have.

In the past, I have recommended that you edit down some of your posts to about half as many words. This one is totally the opposite. The first paragraph appears to be a string of conclusions without any background exposition at all. Please try harder (or less hard, maybe).

 

[Ellejustus]

In the past, I have recommended that you edit down some of your posts to about half as many words. This one is totally the opposite. The first paragraph appears to be a string of conclusions without any background exposition at all. Please try harder (or less hard, maybe).

Troll!!!

 

[Grace T.]

In the past, I have recommended that you edit down some of your posts to about half as many words. This one is totally the opposite. The first paragraph appears to be a string of conclusions without any background exposition at all. Please try harder (or less hard, maybe).

playing teacher again...your least effective technique.....to be effective as a teacher you have to carry at least a modicum of respect