Desert Hound
DA
Excellent article. It will make @dad4 s head hurt.
Taiwan: The Ignorance of Experts and Media
The absurdity of assuming "complacency" is responsible for COVID outcomesianmsc.substack.com
Bad News Thread
- Thread starter kickingandscreaming
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Bruddah IZ
DA
I don't think the experts are ignorant at all. They have a socialist agenda. The masses are dumbed down. You can see it in their actions.Taiwan: The Ignorance of Experts and Media
The absurdity of assuming "complacency" is responsible for COVID outcomes
Says the man who throws around statistics terms, but can’t write a decent explanation of what he means by them.
Do you have a coherent explanation of whatever your point was with R^2 yet?
Should be easy for you. I’m just asking your to clearly explain your own point, in your own words.
It’s on substack. There is a reason Team Virus has to seek support from non-scientific, non-peer reviewed articles.
Bruddah IZ
DA
Of course you can....retroactively. That's why you had no credibility with me from the start.
Retroactive mea culpa.
Maybe some do, but I think it has more to do with arrogance than anything else and living in an academic bubble. An utter failure of understanding how things work outside a lab (aka the real world).
If you think I said masks eliminate transmission, find the link and post it. (You won’t find one. The goal is R<1, not R=0)
Better yet, pick up a stats book and try to figure out whatever it was you think you meant by R^2.
It's an articulate opinion piece based on data. Of course, we support it, we've been saying the same thing for months, just not as well said.
Saying an indoor mask mandate is different than buying in wholesale to the ridiculous mask mandates in place including outdoor mask mandates and masks for young children and the autistic. And my primary attacks have been to the oversell of masks. If telling folks a lie that masks are better than vaccines is required for support, then no. But yes, I've always thought, and have repeatedly said, an indoor mask mandate is a good idea: I just don't think it does what you think it does.
There's a difference between an airline grounding an non-essential travel. The problem with non-essential travel restrictions is the enforcement given the ubiquity of the car. Gonna put up police road barriers a la "Contagion"? You still haven't said how you'd do it.
My position has been clear all along. I've been right, you've been wrong.
Bruddah IZ
DA
Hanapaa!! Unconfirmed COVID deaths were in no way correlated with your caseteria. Feel free to run through your numbers again....retroactively of course. Clarity and coherence is not what you seek. If that were the case, you would not have ignored the opacity of the PCR test. You would not have ignored the long history of respiratory diseases and the absence of tyrannical policies back then. I get that you like cherry picking your data. Funny thing is, it's cherry harvest in Cali. So I expect you to not miss a beat for the next 5 weeks.
We addressed in a prior article why Team Panic and its expert class behaved the way it did, attacking the outsiders who in the end were more right than they were.
Bruddah IZ
DA
Says the man who throws around statistics terms, but can’t write a decent explanation as to why he excludes relevant historical data and stats.
Do you have a coherent explanation of why you exclude relevant historical data and stats?
I know your socialist agenda makes it hard for you to do so. I’m just asking you to clearly explain why you exclude relevant historical data and stats..
Bruddah IZ
DA
There is a reason you have to exclude relevant historical data, stats, Science, biology, etc.. Cherry Harvest in Cali.
Bruddah IZ
DA
That's not saying much when you're dealing with a cherry picker.
Bruddah IZ
DA
Another reason to lower the cherry pickers credit score.
Some interesting mask discussion.
swprs.org
Also some larger thinking around Covid as a whole.
Are Face Masks Effective? The Evidence.
An overview of the current evidence regarding the effectiveness of face masks.
swprs.org
Also some larger thinking around Covid as a whole.
Had we followed your advice last March, what would have happened?
Case growth followed an exponential curve up until about a week after the shutdowns began. (From Feb 01 to March 24 or March 29, 2020). This part is just fact. Look at a log scale graph of case counts.
Back then, you wanted us to believe it was not exponential. Had we followed your advice, case growth would have continued on an exponential path until something else slowed it down. What would that have been, and when would it have happened?
If you are relying on widespread natural immunity to act as the brakes, the slowdown doesn’t really start until you are over 50% seroprevalence. How many deaths would you have had up to that point?
You can estimate it. IFR back then was 0.7%. Our treatments were not very good yet. So, 330M * 0.5 * 0.07 = 1.15M deaths. That is a kind estimate, since it assumes absolutely no degradation in the heath care system. Once you account for that, you get the 2.2 million Imperial College estimate.
Which brings us back to the original point. Those initial restrictions saved us between 0.5 million and 1.5 million deaths, depending on your assumptions about what happens when you run out of health care facilities.
Desert Hound
DA
Are Face Masks Effective? The Evidence.
An overview of the current evidence regarding the effectiveness of face masks.
swprs.org
Desert Hound
DA
Some interesting mask discussion.
Are Face Masks Effective? The Evidence.
An overview of the current evidence regarding the effectiveness of face masks.
Also some larger thinking around Covid as a whole.
Yup, if the virus had affected children as badly as old people and the IFR was closer to 3%, we would have seen a lighter version of "Contagion" play out.