Bad News Thread

[Grace T.]

So the discussion has turned from arguing what we should do in 2020 to what we should have done in 2021?

Opposite. Instead of what we should do in 2021 to what should have/could have been done in 2020. But yet, even with the benefit now of hindsight, they can't articulate a successful scenario. Whether dad4 likes it or not, the government's role in this is just about done (the last sort of hill being whether they'll do a vaccine mandate or passport), leaving us largely with Monday morning quarterbacking with the true believers.

That’s because, as soon as I mention any idea of fines for public health violations, you say it would be unconstitutional.

I don’t believe your interpretation. The supreme court upheld fines for public health violations back in 1905. That was a vaccine mandate. If a vaccine mandate is legal, then I‘m sure a mask mandate would be legal.

But, within your assumption that all federal public health mandates are illegal, there isn’t much to say. You’re asking me to come up with a policy, except that the policy can’t require masks, can’t close indoor gatherings, can’t close casinos, can’t limit churches, and can’t be enforced.

If we assume your interpretation, then no sensible policy is possible. You’ve just banned all sensible measures and all enforcement mechanisms.

Well, the clearest evidence of it that Biden didn't implement one. You think one could have gotten past the Roberts court? Fine, show us how it plays out in your scenario particularly when DeSantis tells Trump to go stuff it. We can all then judge how realistically your scenario would have played out. But have the cajones to lay out your prescription, given the cards at the start of this, and how it would have played out instead of just preaching from the pulpit.

 

[dad4]

Bad news... science and masks?

Prominent San Diego Scientists Argue COVID-19 Spreads Like Secondhand Smoke

Two San Diego researchers hope a new peer-reviewed article helps them convince federal officials to change their opinion of how COVID-19 spreads.

www.kpbs.org

Not really news. Just the umpteenth report that it’s all about the aerosols.

Still means outside, distance, masks, and get your vaccine when you are allowed.

 

[kickingandscreaming]

I said I disagreed with his assessment when you first brought it up. I don't recall others echoing it. Or calling him out on it.

Turns out he was right for MI and maybe MN. Wrong for the other 48 states.

My claim was that we would have a foothill, but no mountain. I also claimed that CA would hover at the red/purple boundary for a while after restaurants opened.

Turns out, we are hovering at the red/orange boundary- which is where the old red/purple boundary used to be.

I don't feel I was all that far off.

Sorry if I wasn't clear on my point. I remember you disagreeing with the dire assessment as well as your foothill prediction.

This was directed at "experts" who many blindly follow because they are experts. My point is that if the experts had real knowledge that is useful for policy, why weren't they coming out and saying this scenario does not seem likely? We were 10 months into the pandemic and the prediction was 6-14 weeks out. This was headline news from someone who advises presidents. So, where were all the experts who knew better? Where was the reasonable dissent to Osterholm's prediction?

 

[Desert Hound]

Not really news. Just the umpteenth report that it’s all about the aerosols.

Still means outside, distance, masks, and get your vaccine when you are allowed.

 

[kickingandscreaming]

So the discussion has turned from arguing what we should do in 2020 to what we should have done in 2021?

#progress

 

[kickingandscreaming]

Bad news... science and masks?

Prominent San Diego Scientists Argue COVID-19 Spreads Like Secondhand Smoke

Two San Diego researchers hope a new peer-reviewed article helps them convince federal officials to change their opinion of how COVID-19 spreads.

www.kpbs.org

Interesting stuff. This goes right along with the cases that spread in AU I posted a week or so ago - inside a hotel, separate rooms, both rooms had doors open for about 50 seconds IIRC.

 

[Glitterhater]

O.k. So please tell us how in this alternate universe they could have succeeded, given the cards dealt.

I am no fan of the "bad orange man" but he was definitely handed a shit sandwich. Talk about everything going bad at once.

 

[Desert Hound]

I am no fan of the "bad orange man" but he was definitely handed a shit sandwich. Talk about everything going bad at once.

The world was handed that sandwich.

 

[Grace T.]

The world was handed that sandwich.

The PRC also lovingly put some expired mayo on it for us., then bought up all the barf bags.

 

[dad4]

Sorry if I wasn't clear on my point. I remember you disagreeing with the dire assessment as well as your foothill prediction.

This was directed at "experts" who many blindly follow because they are experts. My point is that if the experts had real knowledge that is useful for policy, why weren't they coming out and saying this scenario does not seem likely? We were 10 months into the pandemic and the prediction was 6-14 weeks out. This was headline news from someone who advises presidents. So, where were all the experts who knew better? Where was the reasonable dissent to Osterholm's prediction?

If some experts were going to take Osterholm to task for an overstated prediction, I doubt they would choose to do it in public.

 

[dad4]

Opposite. Instead of what we should do in 2021 to what should have/could have been done in 2020. But yet, even with the benefit now of hindsight, they can't articulate a successful scenario. Whether dad4 likes it or not, the government's role in this is just about done (the last sort of hill being whether they'll do a vaccine mandate or passport), leaving us largely with Monday morning quarterbacking with the true believers.



Well, the clearest evidence of it that Biden didn't implement one. You think one could have gotten past the Roberts court? Fine, show us how it plays out in your scenario particularly when DeSantis tells Trump to go stuff it. We can all then judge how realistically your scenario would have played out. But have the cajones to lay out your prescription, given the cards at the start of this, and how it would have played out instead of just preaching from the pulpit.

Why would Biden push for an executive mask requitement that takes 4 months to litigate and becomes obsolete in 3?

Even then, red states wouldn't enforce it.

That is not to say the house and senate shouldn't pass a mask mandate as a law. It's just a realistic assessment that the Republicans would block it in the senate.

 

[Hüsker Dü]

O.k. So please tell us how in this alternate universe they could have succeeded, given the cards dealt.

In your all or nothing world?

 

[Grace T.]

Why would Biden push for an executive mask requitement that takes 4 months to litigate and becomes obsolete in 3?

Even then, red states wouldn't enforce it.

That is not to say the house and senate shouldn't pass a mask mandate as a law. It's just a realistic assessment that the Republicans would block it in the senate.

So you are conceding I guess that you can not construct a realistic, alternate hypothetical for how things could have played out more to your liking, given the cards that were dealt, because the red states wouldn't enforce it and the Republicans would always block it in the Senate. Again, you are left with "people should do better", and when it comes down to it, you disapprove of your fellow countrymen (as opposed to say the Aussies or the Japanese).

In your all or nothing world?

In my world things are real. They have real implications on people and I deal in the possible. Dad4 seems to like to preach the ideal and talk about the theoretical. In the real world that's not very useful

 

[Hüsker Dü]

I am no fan of the "bad orange man" but he was definitely handed a shit sandwich. Talk about everything going bad at once.

Are you going to excuse is incompetence and even worse lack of effort?

 

[Hüsker Dü]

So you are conceding I guess that you can not construct a realistic, alternate hypothetical for how things could have played out more to your liking, given the cards that were dealt, because the red states wouldn't enforce it and the Republicans would always block it in the Senate. Again, you are left with "people should do better", and when it comes down to it, you disapprove of your fellow countrymen (as opposed to say the Aussies or the Japanese).



In my world things are real. They have real implications on people and I deal in the possible. Dad4 seems to like to preach the ideal and talk about the theoretical. In the real world that's not very useful

You are the one that started the whole “I started a post about how things could have been, but stopped”. Your presumed theoretical was chock full of assumptions from the get go. Pretty silly, but then again, that’s what trump apologist have to do.

 

[kickingandscreaming]

If some experts were going to take Osterholm to task for an overstated prediction, I doubt they would choose to do it in public.

Their silence undermines all epidemiologists.

 

[Grace T.]

You are the one that started the whole “I started a post about how things could have been, but stopped”. Your presumed theoretical was chock full of assumptions from the get go. Pretty silly, but then again, that’s what trump apologist have to do.

1. We don't know what dad4's vision is. He's never really laid it out. Like a good preacher it's filled with platitudes and big ideas, short on actual practical solutions. It's ranged from yeah let's do Australia, to let's just mask up and close indoor dining.
2. So it leaves me to guess what dad4's vision is. I took something in between. Given the hand that dealt, even with a deus ex machina of Trump and Pelosi having double heart attacks, I can't build a hypothetical where something approaching dad4's supposed vision plays out to fruition.
3. He's been invited to build it and we can all critique it to how real a possibility it would be. He's declined and even conceded his mask mandate wouldn't have worked. So all that he has left is to preach and wish everyone was just so gosh darn better.
4. He's got the advantage that this is all Monday Morning quarterbacking. His own goalpost ranged at the beginning from test and trace (where'd that go?) to shut down the airlines. It should be easier with the benefit of hindsight but he can't even do it then.

 

[Glitterhater]

Are you going to excuse is incompetence and even worse lack of effort?

Not at all. Where did I say that? I was just cosigning Grace's comment about him being dealt a shitty hand. Not once would I ever excuse anything he did (or didn't do.)

 

[dad4]

Their silence undermines all epidemiologists.

True.

But these are not politicians. They are geeks.

If you treat them like shit, they ignore you and go back to talking to other geeks. Which is what we've done, and what they are doing.

They aren't going to go on Fox News and create a storyline about dissent within the scientific community. There isn't any point in that.

They'll call up people they respect to talk through some obscure but useful thing, like different models for the time lag between sewage RNA numbers and case counts.

 

[dad4]

1. We don't know what dad4's vision is. He's never really laid it out. Like a good preacher it's filled with platitudes and big ideas, short on actual practical solutions. It's ranged from yeah let's do Australia, to let's just mask up and close indoor dining.
2. So it leaves me to guess what dad4's vision is. I took something in between. Given the hand that dealt, even with a deus ex machina of Trump and Pelosi having double heart attacks, I can't build a hypothetical where something approaching dad4's supposed vision plays out to fruition.
3. He's been invited to build it and we can all critique it to how real a possibility it would be. He's declined and even conceded his mask mandate wouldn't have worked. So all that he has left is to preach and wish everyone was just so gosh darn better.
4. He's got the advantage that this is all Monday Morning quarterbacking. His own goalpost ranged at the beginning from test and trace (where'd that go?) to shut down the airlines. It should be easier with the benefit of hindsight but he can't even do it then.

You want to know what I would do, subject to the constraint that I can't do anything.

That is a pointless game, and I told you so.