Bad News Thread

[dad4]

Yes, a report from the scientific community that it is aerosols.

Also pointing how useless ‘facial coverings’ are as a result. I don’t recall advocating for a respirator mandate for the vulnerable even in your dismissive reply.

The researcher in the article you linked to still recommended masks.

Your description of "useless" does not appear to be shared by the scientist. If he meant to say "useless", he would not have endorsed them.

I do agree that masks are no substitute for proper ventilation or being outside. They are a moderate help.

 

[N00B]

The researcher in the article you linked to still recommended masks.

Your description of "useless" does not appear to be shared by the scientist. If he meant to say "useless", he would not have endorsed them.

I do agree that masks are no substitute for proper ventilation or being outside. They are a moderate help.

I was quite specific about my diction. ‘Facial coverings’...

The scientists were clear.

quote:

“They are quite a bit behind the science,” Jimenez said. “And they need to update their recommendations because some of the things they are saying are not sufficient. The masks that people who are at high risk are wearing need to be improved.”

 

[dad4]

I was quite specific about my diction. ‘Facial coverings’...

The scientists were clear.

quote:

“They are quite a bit behind the science,” Jimenez said. “And they need to update their recommendations because some of the things they are saying are not sufficient. The masks that people who are at high risk are wearing need to be improved.”

That is different from saying that masks are useless.

It just means the cloth mask may be appropriate for sidelines at the soccer game, but you want a surgical or N95 mask for higher risk areas.

 

[kickingandscreaming]

True.

But these are not politicians. They are geeks.

If you treat them like shit, they ignore you and go back to talking to other geeks. Which is what we've done, and what they are doing.

They aren't going to go on Fox News and create a storyline about dissent within the scientific community. There isn't any point in that.

They'll call up people they respect to talk through some obscure but useful thing, like different models for the time lag between sewage RNA numbers and case counts.

Are you saying CNN (or any of the outlets that posted his comments) wouldn't have presented a differing opinion from another expert? Maybe, but that's a sad commentary on our news media if that was the case. Also, I'd say that if you and I can disagree, as we have, on a more or less anonymous forum and still stay civil, so can epidemiologists knowing that their comments won't be anonymous.

Also, if they keep to themselves, all the stuff they are doing isn't nearly as useful as it could be. Maybe you should expect more from them as well.

 

[dad4]

Are you saying CNN (or any of the outlets that posted his comments) wouldn't have presented a differing opinion from another expert? Maybe, but that's a sad commentary on our news media if that was the case. Also, I'd say that if you and I can disagree, as we have, on a more or less anonymous forum and still stay civil, so can epidemiologists knowing that their comments won't be anonymous.

Also, if they keep to themselves, all the stuff they are doing isn't nearly as useful as it could be. Maybe you should expect more from them as well.

I agree. It would be nice if epidemiologists did a better job explaining their work.

Maybe next time.

This time, we had the president, several congressmen, and multiple news outlets smear scientists because they did not like the opinions presented. Remember Rand Paul's line of questioning? Who wants to sit in that chair when they could be playing with spreadsheets?

After a few rounds like that, most sane people will start to avoid both politicians and the press. You're left with the political ones like Fauci and Osterholm.

If you want to know what the numbers geeks think, you'll have to read their papers. They aren't going to present themselves for abuse on Fox and CSpan.

 

[N00B]

That is different from saying that masks are useless.

It just means the cloth mask may be appropriate for sidelines at the soccer game, but you want a surgical or N95 mask for higher risk areas.

Indeed, back when there was a crisis and the ‘facial coverings’ were wrongly recommended, just as they still are today under ‘masking mandates’.

I think your best response to Grace T’s hypothetical is the suggestion you actually made many months ago in a deleted thread to ship n95’s to the US population. Then the stop the spread may have been effective enough to implement track and trace.

 

[Grace T.]

You want to know what I would do, subject to the constraint that I can't do anything.

That is a pointless game, and I told you so.

You want to change the conditions of reality which is the pointless game. You play the hand you are dealt not the hand you wish you had.

 

[Grace T.]

Indeed, back when there was a crisis and the ‘facial coverings’ were wrongly recommended, just as they still are today under ‘masking mandates’.

I think your best response to Grace T’s hypothetical is the suggestion you actually made many months ago in a deleted thread to ship n95’s to the US population. Then the stop the spread may have been effective enough to implement track and trace.

We actually agreed on that recommend.

here’s the other issue with masks not fully appreciated. We don’t know what the interval of infection is. From the hotel story kicking posted it is likely quite short. If an n95 is worn and fitted properly the models say it’s about 95% effective at blocking. The question then becomes over how many intervals/how many exposures. At the grocery store it may only be 1, at a doctors waiting room maybe 2, working at a warehouse maybe 10s of exposures, a 7 hour flight in the hundreds. Mask has to work every time to prevent you from getting sick. The longer the exposure the more chances for failure. Since aerosolizes the cloth mask does even worse at 40% since that’s several rolls of that dice you have to beat with the 40%. Add now human failure over time such as removing or touching the mask or the mask getting wet and that’s the explanation for why masks don’t seem to be working in the real world while on paper the n95s should be very effective.

 

[dad4]

We actually agreed on that recommend.

here’s the other issue with masks not fully appreciated. We don’t know what the interval of infection is. From the hotel story kicking posted it is likely quite short. If an n95 is worn and fitted properly the models say it’s about 95% effective at blocking. The question then becomes over how many intervals/how many exposures. At the grocery store it may only be 1, at a doctors waiting room maybe 2, working at a warehouse maybe 10s of exposures, a 7 hour flight in the hundreds. Mask has to work every time to prevent you from getting sick. The longer the exposure the more chances for failure. Since aerosolizes the cloth mask does even worse at 40% since that’s several rolls of that dice you have to beat with the 40%. Add now human failure over time such as removing or touching the mask or the mask getting wet and that’s the explanation for why masks don’t seem to be working in the real world while on paper the n95s should be very effective.

Review your earlier comments on viral load.

Infection is scalar, not boolean. reducing viral load is important.

 

[N00B]

Review your earlier comments on viral load.

Infection is scalar, not boolean. reducing viral load is important.

Perhaps viral load is important. It’s amongst the questions still posed by scientists.

We know a lot about Covid-19. Experts have many more questions

STAT asked experts to explain the question they would most like to have answered about Covid. Here's what they had to say.

www.statnews.com

The unknowns that perplex scientists about Covid-19 at this point are interesting at the very least.

Now that we’re winding down into postmortem discussions....

It is interesting that many of these questions remain. Surely there are plausible theories ex viral load (would explain indoor vs outdoor transmission), but policy and thus compliance hasn’t followed these theories per se.

Redirect Notice

www.google.com

 

[Grace T.]

Review your earlier comments on viral load.

Infection is scalar, not boolean. reducing viral load is important.

I agree with this, BUT the two articles also point to it probably doesn’t take much to make you sick. Also that goes to death and hospitalizations not cases which is a further indication masks were never going to control the thing...just potentially make illness less severe (which the vaccines also do making masks superfluous now). I think it was kicking that pointed this out months ago.

my point was, however, that the thing being overlooked (and why many of the airline mask studies are hot garbage) is that time is also a factor. An n95 might stop 1 infection incident walking through a grocery store...a cloth mask not withstanding the holes in the mask might still do it too notwithstanding the aerosolized particles if you are lucky (a chain link fence after all does stop some bees from flying through it)...but you’d have to be extremely lucky for an n95 to do that on a 7 hour cross continental flight if there’s a sick person behind you.

 

[dad4]

I agree with this, BUT the two articles also point to it probably doesn’t take much to make you sick. Also that goes to death and hospitalizations not cases which is a further indication masks were never going to control the thing...just potentially make illness less severe (which the vaccines also do making masks superfluous now). I think it was kicking that pointed this out months ago.

my point was, however, that the thing being overlooked (and why many of the airline mask studies are hot garbage) is that time is also a factor. An n95 might stop 1 infection incident walking through a grocery store...a cloth mask not withstanding the holes in the mask might still do it too notwithstanding the aerosolized particles if you are lucky (a chain link fence after all does stop some bees from flying through it)...but you’d have to be extremely lucky for an n95 to do that on a 7 hour cross continental flight if there’s a sick person behind you.

Ok. That's one more reason to avoid airplanes during respiratory outbreaks.

The argument for masks was never that they protect the individual. It was always just trying to reduce transmission by some percentage.

The right mental model isn't bees. It's rabbits. You're just trying to slow them down enough that each pair of rabbits, on average, has fewer than 2 bunnies.

So, reducing the litter size by 10% is a decent step in the right direction. If you can do that several times, you have a chance.

Of course, if you really want to control your rabbit population, you need the spay and neuter clinic. That's the vaccine.

(Now crush will think the vaccine makes him infertile. Oh well.)

 

[Grace T.]

Ok. That's one more reason to avoid airplanes during respiratory outbreaks.

The argument for masks was never that they protect the individual. It was always just trying to reduce transmission by some percentage.

The right mental model isn't bees. It's rabbits. You're just trying to slow them down enough that each pair of rabbits, on average, has fewer than 2 bunnies.

So, reducing the litter size by 10% is a decent step in the right direction. If you can do that several times, you have a chance.

Of course, if you really want to control your rabbit population, you need the spay and neuter clinic. That's the vaccine.

(Now crush will think the vaccine makes him infertile. Oh well.)

The point is between the confirmation of aerolization and now taking into account the time reduction, while they might help in reducing severity of cases by reducing viral loads, the percentage of reduction of transmission is less than the models predict. It explains away the difference between those models and the real world outcomes.

 

[crush]

(Now crush will think the vaccine makes him infertile. Oh well.)

Did someone call on Crush? Listen Daddy Warbucks, go ahead and take your shots brah. Do any of these vaccines have baby body parts mixed in the secret sauce? I heard but I cant confirm. My DR friend told me to stay away if you have any objections to killing babies before born so evil can make some $$$ on organs and tissues. I also heard that girls should be very careful as well because__________________________________________________________________. Talk about being a lab rat ahead of the rats. No more judgement from me. One of my best friends took his second dose. I swear dude is not the same. He told me he had to do it or his wife would not sleep with him. Sex is a powerful tool or could be used as a weapon or to make a few bucks. I know someone else on the opposite side. If you take the vaccine, no sex for you. Woman hold the power card. I call it "The POP."

 

[Grace T.]

The daily vaccination rate has topped out and is dropping. Just spitballing here but at 50% vaccinated we are now nearly through everyone that really wanted one and are now at the takers or leavers if it’s convenient. The refusal rate among the marines (which tend to skew younger) was at 40% so sounds about right. As time unfolds some portion of that is people who have had covid but don’t want to get the shot right away for a variety of reasons. Throw in the polls that show the j&j incident have increased vaccine hesitancy. Again just guessing but probably we are 10% hard core refusers and 15% scared but pursuadable and another 15% meh I’ll do it when the time comes and if convenient and if I don’t have to inconvenience myself.

I read somewhere we have 60m doses sitting...some portion of that is reserved second doses...but my guess is still now 1 week away from a full on vaccine glut.

 

[dad4]

Did someone call on Crush? Listen Daddy Warbucks, go ahead and take your shots brah. Do any of these vaccines have baby parts mixed in the secret sauce? I heard but I cant confirm. My DR friend told me to stay away if you have any objections to killing babies before born so evil can make some $$$ on organs and tissues. I also heard that girls should be very careful as well because__________________________________________________________________. Talk about being a lab rat ahead of the rats. No more judgement from me. One of my best friends took his second dose. I swear dude is not the same. He told me he had to do it or his wife would not sleep with him. Sex is a powerful tool or could be used as a weapon or to make a few bucks. I know someone else on the opposite side. If you take the vaccine, no sex for you. Woman hold the power card. I call it "The POP."

No baby parts in the secret sauce.

Fetal stem cell lines from two abortions in the 1960s and 1970s are used to test new vaccines. The cell lines are used to test the vaccine against a human cell. So, you could not have made the vaccine without the stem cell line. However, there are no fetal cell parts in the vaccine itself, and no new abortions are in any way involved in vaccine creation or production. It all links to those two abortions 40-50 years ago.

These days, they get stem cells from amniotic fluid if they ever need a new stem cell line. But they still use the stem cell lines from the 1970s for research.

https://www.health.nd.gov/sites/www/files/documents/COVID%20Vaccine%20Page/COVID-19_Vaccine_Fetal_Cell_Handout.pdf

 

[crush]

The daily vaccination rate has topped out and is dropping. Just spitballing here but at 50% vaccinated we are now nearly through everyone that really wanted one and are now at the takers or leavers if it’s convenient. The refusal rate among the marines (which tend to skew younger) was at 40% so sounds about right. As time unfolds some portion of that is people who have had covid but don’t want to get the shot right away for a variety of reasons. Throw in the polls that show the j&j incident have increased vaccine hesitancy. Again just guessing but probably we are 10% hard core refusers and 15% scared but pursuadable and another 15% meh I’ll do it when the time comes and if convenient and if I don’t have to inconvenience myself.

I read somewhere we have 60m doses sitting...some portion of that is reserved second doses...but my guess is still now 1 week away from a full on vaccine glut.

Hardcore % is way higher, trust me. No one is scared WHO will never take it. Most I know who are scared just want things to go back to normal and they will do what their told to do in order to be Mr. and Mrs. Normal again. I say sit back and watch what unfolds. Praying is always a good thing, just saying, peace Grace

 

[Grace T.]

Hardcore % is way higher, trust me. No one is scared WHO will never take it. Most I know who are scared just want things to go back to normal and they will do what their told to do in order to be Mr. and Mrs. Normal. I say sit back and watch what unfolds. Praying is always a good thing, just saying, peace Grace

Persuadable= gently forced...if you prefer your vodka straight up.

 

[crush]

No baby parts in the secret sauce.

Fetal stem cell lines from two abortions in the 1960s and 1970s are used to test new vaccines. The cell lines are used to test the vaccine against a human cell. So, you could not have made the vaccine without the stem cell line. However, there are no fetal cell parts in the vaccine itself, and no new abortions are in any way involved in vaccine creation or production. It all links to those two abortions 40-50 years ago.

These days, they get stem cells from amniotic fluid if they ever need a new stem cell line. But they still use the stem cell lines from the 1970s for research.

https://www.health.nd.gov/sites/www/files/documents/COVID%20Vaccine%20Page/COVID-19_Vaccine_Fetal_Cell_Handout.pdf

Why so many babies killed before born? Why so many kids go missing everyday in our country? Why why why????? Anyway, you're full of shit Dad. Some dad you are btw. Any way, carry on with all your lies. YOU will need to answer to the ONE that matters. This is truth and take it at face value. Dont mess with the creator of life bro. I would stop and not look like a compete selfish scared little man that you are. You lost!!!

 

[crush]

Persuadable= gently forced...if you prefer your vodka straight up.

Yes, if you wanted to go to Yale and that means more than anything to you, you take the shots. If you know the truth, then you find a new school? What is truth these days anyways? Were all on are own and must answer for oneself. Everyone of us on this planet is being watched from a Hawk right now. Every thought and decision is recorded. No one is excusable and no one will escape ultimate judgement. That is all that gives me hope. Justice will be served

 

[kickingandscreaming]

The point is between the confirmation of aerolization and now taking into account the time reduction, while they might help in reducing severity of cases by reducing viral loads, the percentage of reduction of transmission is less than the models predict. It explains away the difference between those models and the real world outcomes.

Maybe the aerosolization helps explain the low rates (initially at least) in Africa and India - more "fresh" air, fewer enclosed spaces with AC/Heating.