Not college. High school and lower.
It's similar but slightly different. 1) I don't recall the Biden admin having filed suit against a state for trying to ban trans athletes. Trump I think might. 2) the mechanisms are different. Biden tried through regular rules to alter Title IX which would have enshrined the change for all time. He quietly dropped it on Dec. 24 so the rule was never promulgated, hence was never tested by the Dept of Ed. Trump has tried to do so through admin order so it can be reversed by a subsequent D admin and takes effect right away. The legal position is as a result weaker since it relies on the Dept of Ed (which he might fold) enforcing it through litigation and a possible admin rule down the line. 3) I'm not aware of any state having amended their constitution to expressly provide no men in women's sports or to define gender biologically. The moves made have been through legislation (KS, MN, TN). By contrast several states do have transgendered rights enshrined in their state constitutions.
Finally, Gonzales (the medical marijuana case) precedes NFIB (Obamacare). The latter in time is controlling. And the point went over your head. The chief in NFIB to save Obamacare relied on the taxation clause and came to the conclusion that the interstate commerce clause provided insufficient jurisdiction to support the federal mandate. It substantially limited the scope of the interstate commerce clause and is the pivot point case when it comes to the ruling. There is a danger that the court finds that Title IX cannot extend to purely state matters, such as education has been traditionally been considered, and therefore Congress cannot dictate to the states how they conduct education (they could regulate the league, but Congress would have to go back to the drawing board to do that which in the divided Congress is unlikely). I'm not saying it will happen, just that it gives the conservatives, who have always hated the equality principle and given the recent market shifts in college athletics, the opportunity to kill it once and for all.
