'22-'23 SoCal and National Forecast and Updates

In the 09 age group, SW GA has competitive games week-in, week-out. Rarely a blowout, if ever. Anyone can beat anyone else. That's pretty much the best you could hope for out of a top tier league. And if/when a team wants to challenge the ECNL's best, then Surf Cup, Vegas Cup, etc are available. I can't think of a better arrangement.
 
Meanwhile in (finally) sunny Socal, Legends beat Blues 1-0 this week in a very intense game. Legends/Blues/Slammers Koge/SD Surf are always competitive games.
In other minor news, State cup final tomorrow between Arsenal Ecnl and Rangers Fc.
 
As some of you know we recently located to Boise from Las Vegas. Our DD played on the Players Elite G09>LV Surf G09 and she now plays for the Boise Thorns ECNL G09 squad. Today we played Real Colo National ECNL G09 in Denver in ecnl conference play. When in Vegas we played Colo Rush GA a handful of times over the years and can confirm they at least two have made the jump to Real. Real National are a very well rounded sqaud and talented in all areas. Easily in the top 5 ecnl teams in the nation with a real shot to win the ecnl Natty title imo. They are only going to get better. They are not weak in any areas.

Moving forward to the game. We lost 1-2. Real scored two goals in like the last 10 min of the first half. Our girls had one of our best showings and was super proud of them. They played played hard and physical and never gave up. Our keeper made like 4 really nice saves to keep us in it. We could have lost 4-5 zip. Hard work and not giving up paid off and our girls scored a nice hard earned goal with 5 left then almost tied it with a corner with a like a minute left. Would have been a huge point to snag but none the less a great showing and match. Real CoLo National is for “Real” for sure. They play Legends, Eagles, and KC Athletics at the Phoenix showcase next week. I think they Beat Eagles and KC and lose a close one to Legends with physicality being the difference but definitely can win.
 
Out here on the East Coast, Jefferson Cup took place over the weekend. No surprise, PDA Blue took home the top bracket with wins over the following ECNL teams:

3-0 over Pipeline
1-0 over Loudoun
2-0 over UFA (who beat Richmond ECNL to advance to Championship Game)

ECNL playoffs are going to be stacked with good competition come June. Solar, PDA, REAL, Legends, Blues, SUSA, Surf and DKSC. I hope they all manage to get in different groups somehow!
 
Out here on the East Coast, Jefferson Cup took place over the weekend. No surprise, PDA Blue took home the top bracket with wins over the following ECNL teams:

3-0 over Pipeline
1-0 over Loudoun
2-0 over UFA (who beat Richmond ECNL to advance to Championship Game)

ECNL playoffs are going to be stacked with good competition come June. Solar, PDA, REAL, Legends, Blues, SUSA, Surf and DKSC. I hope they all manage to get in different groups somehow!
Looks like DKSC beat Solar this weekend 1-0. Sounds like that might have been a pretty intense match to watch!
 
The Solar v DKSC game was physical! DKSC had several opportunities to score but couldn’t finish. If they can figure that part out, I’d put them in top 2-3 that could win it all. ECNL Playoffs are going too intense. Anyone of the top 10 could advance to finals. Brackets are going to be key. Should be a fun run to the finals.
 
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The Solar v DKSC game was physical! DKSC had several opportunities to score but couldn’t finish. If they can figure that part out, I’d put them in top 2-3 that could win it all. ECNL Playoffs are going too intense. Anyone of the top 10 could advance to finals. Brackets are going to be key. Should be a fun run to the finals.
Agreed! Crazy how much a year changed with these girls becoming teenagers. Seems they are all getting smarter on field in addition to their physical skills they already have. Pretty cool to see.
 
Agreed! Crazy how much a year changed with these girls becoming teenagers. Seems they are all getting smarter on field in addition to their physical skills they already have. Pretty cool to see.

Changes will happen all the way thru Playoffs and into next year.. Some grow and slow down, some do not....
 
Is Koge healthy? I feel like I heard they had some girls out earlier in the season or something like that.
Good question, Last I heard in the SD showcases last year went to their game against DKSC and were missing 4 starters due to injury including their goalie...
 
Socal state cup at the 09 levels shows that top Flight 1 teams can compete and beat ECRL teams. Congrats to Rangers NPL for taking Arsenal ECNL to pk’s. Rangers lost but that just shows that the gap even against ECNL is not as wide as expected. Plenty of talented kids in SoCal 09 that are not in ECNL.
 
Socal state cup at the 09 levels shows that top Flight 1 teams can compete and beat ECRL teams. Congrats to Rangers NPL for taking Arsenal ECNL to pk’s. Rangers lost but that just shows that the gap even against ECNL is not as wide as expected. Plenty of talented kids in SoCal 09 that are not in ECNL.

As far as I can tell, it looks like the win/loss data fully supports your view. In this particular case, the Rangers team was even slightly favored over Sporting California USA ECNL (Arsenal), by a half goal - but it's close enough to be a toss-up. 47% chance for Rangers, 35% for Arsenal, 18% for a tie. Rangers 19th in state, Arsenal 23rd in state.

But it might not be able to be extrapolated too far. There aren't many non ECNL, non GA teams like the Rangers that could expect a likely similar result. In fact - it looks like there are only 2 other teams in the top 20 that fit into that category, San Juan South SC NPL and San Diego Force DPL. Even including GA teams, that's just an additional 3 out of the 20.
 
But it might not be able to be extrapolated too far. There aren't many non ECNL, non GA teams like the Rangers that could expect a likely similar result. In fact - it looks like there are only 2 other teams in the top 20 that fit into that category, San Juan South SC NPL and San Diego Force DPL. Even including GA teams, that's just an additional 3 out of the 20.
Agree 100%.
 
Every team has 1 or 2 injured at any given time at this age. Plus ECNL has the luxury of pulling from ECRL if they need bodies.
Also, with rosters the size of the average ECNL team (and depth of the quality), it seems like even 4 injuries wouldn't have a big effect
 
DPL is where GA generally plays their 2nd teams. If Rangers are as good as others say they are they should run the league.

Also DPL started doing nationwide showcases so again if Rangers are the real deal players will have an opportunity to get noticed.
SD Force runs the league now (at least 09s), and Rangers will have to knock them off if they want to lay claim to the top. Easier said than done.
 
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