'22-'23 SoCal and National Forecast and Updates

MARsSPEED said:
Report from GA Champions League last week

GA unfortunately no longer has a “standout” team with the departure of the Colorado Rush players over to Real Colorado. Houston Dash, Michigan Nationals and now Cinci CUP are all good top 20 teams but not in the same realm as the top 5 ECNL teams unlike what Colorado Rush was. Kinda depressing but on the bright side, I feel outside of those top 5 or 10 teams, anyone rated in the top 100 are likely to have very competitive games whether ECNL or GA (at least outside of SoCal).

From my own experience, I had a tough time. Our current club puts a high priority on developing the bench players and learning different formations. Even at the Champions league final, our bench saw equal playing time with a full roster of 18, and running new formations. Don't get me wrong, I get it, these girls are only in the 8th grade and it doesn't mean much but seeing my DD highly upset and disappointed with losing games that she knows they can win can be frustrating as a father. DD is extremely competative. That and the fact we are spending over $3k to go these events and experience a rec team feel is a tough pill to swallow.

I will say that Champions League is a brilliant idea by GA. ECNL does not need this sytem however. It only works for GA because regional divisions are not nearly as strong top to bottom like ECNL but it certainly provides strong competition for top teams.

Our Results
L 2-1 to Michigan Nationals
L 2-1 to Albion San Diego
W 3-2 over Florida United
L 2-1 to NEFC

That said, I do think Houston Dash, Cinci CUP and Nationals are currenlty top GA dogs. Colorado Rush is now probably in the same mention with a team like LA Surf GA. They won a 2-1 match vs. Albion San Diego where just a couple months ago this would be lopsided.

All of this just makes me wonder how good Real Colorado will be after playing together for the Spring. It seems REAL already had a better core before these girls moved.

Current Top Teams
1. Solar ECNL
2. PDA ECNL
3. Blues ECNL
4. Legends ECNL
5. REAL Colorado ECNL (TBH I think they will be at least #2 by season end)
6. MVLA ECNL
7. DKSC ECNL
8. SUSA ECNL
9. Richmond ECNL
10. Eclipse Select ECNL
11. Cinci CUP GA
12. Houston Dash GA
13. Las Vegas Surf E64
14. SLSG Navy ECNL
15. Michigan Nationals GA
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Surf ECNL and Slammers HBK ECNL have to be in top 15.
 
rainbow_unicorn said:
Surf ECNL and Slammers HBK ECNL have to be in top 15.
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Honestly, I think any team 10-35 could win on any given day. Surf, HBK, Las Vegas, Dash, Nationals. Probably was just a waste of time and brain power to think outside top 10 yet alone top 5. But yeah, I certainly don’t disagree with you about Surf or HBK. Sub out any two. I’m guessing if I did the league comparison like I did last year, SoCal would now be number 1 followed by Texas.

Also, I’m sure you know clubs are putting less emphasis on any lower level tournaments, maybe even showcases and concentrating on league games/Nationals.
 
In the 09 age group, SW GA has competitive games week-in, week-out. Rarely a blowout, if ever. Anyone can beat anyone else. That's pretty much the best you could hope for out of a top tier league. And if/when a team wants to challenge the ECNL's best, then Surf Cup, Vegas Cup, etc are available. I can't think of a better arrangement.
 
Meanwhile in (finally) sunny Socal, Legends beat Blues 1-0 this week in a very intense game. Legends/Blues/Slammers Koge/SD Surf are always competitive games.
In other minor news, State cup final tomorrow between Arsenal Ecnl and Rangers Fc.
 
As some of you know we recently located to Boise from Las Vegas. Our DD played on the Players Elite G09>LV Surf G09 and she now plays for the Boise Thorns ECNL G09 squad. Today we played Real Colo National ECNL G09 in Denver in ecnl conference play. When in Vegas we played Colo Rush GA a handful of times over the years and can confirm they at least two have made the jump to Real. Real National are a very well rounded sqaud and talented in all areas. Easily in the top 5 ecnl teams in the nation with a real shot to win the ecnl Natty title imo. They are only going to get better. They are not weak in any areas.

Moving forward to the game. We lost 1-2. Real scored two goals in like the last 10 min of the first half. Our girls had one of our best showings and was super proud of them. They played played hard and physical and never gave up. Our keeper made like 4 really nice saves to keep us in it. We could have lost 4-5 zip. Hard work and not giving up paid off and our girls scored a nice hard earned goal with 5 left then almost tied it with a corner with a like a minute left. Would have been a huge point to snag but none the less a great showing and match. Real CoLo National is for “Real” for sure. They play Legends, Eagles, and KC Athletics at the Phoenix showcase next week. I think they Beat Eagles and KC and lose a close one to Legends with physicality being the difference but definitely can win.
 
Out here on the East Coast, Jefferson Cup took place over the weekend. No surprise, PDA Blue took home the top bracket with wins over the following ECNL teams:

3-0 over Pipeline
1-0 over Loudoun
2-0 over UFA (who beat Richmond ECNL to advance to Championship Game)

ECNL playoffs are going to be stacked with good competition come June. Solar, PDA, REAL, Legends, Blues, SUSA, Surf and DKSC. I hope they all manage to get in different groups somehow!
 
MARsSPEED said:
Out here on the East Coast, Jefferson Cup took place over the weekend. No surprise, PDA Blue took home the top bracket with wins over the following ECNL teams:

3-0 over Pipeline
1-0 over Loudoun
2-0 over UFA (who beat Richmond ECNL to advance to Championship Game)

ECNL playoffs are going to be stacked with good competition come June. Solar, PDA, REAL, Legends, Blues, SUSA, Surf and DKSC. I hope they all manage to get in different groups somehow!
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Looks like DKSC beat Solar this weekend 1-0. Sounds like that might have been a pretty intense match to watch!
 
The Solar v DKSC game was physical! DKSC had several opportunities to score but couldn’t finish. If they can figure that part out, I’d put them in top 2-3 that could win it all. ECNL Playoffs are going too intense. Anyone of the top 10 could advance to finals. Brackets are going to be key. Should be a fun run to the finals.
 
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Texican said:
The Solar v DKSC game was physical! DKSC had several opportunities to score but couldn’t finish. If they can figure that part out, I’d put them in top 2-3 that could win it all. ECNL Playoffs are going too intense. Anyone of the top 10 could advance to finals. Brackets are going to be key. Should be a fun run to the finals.
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Agreed! Crazy how much a year changed with these girls becoming teenagers. Seems they are all getting smarter on field in addition to their physical skills they already have. Pretty cool to see.
 
LVB said:
Agreed! Crazy how much a year changed with these girls becoming teenagers. Seems they are all getting smarter on field in addition to their physical skills they already have. Pretty cool to see.
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Changes will happen all the way thru Playoffs and into next year.. Some grow and slow down, some do not....
 
LVB said:
Is Koge healthy? I feel like I heard they had some girls out earlier in the season or something like that.
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Good question, Last I heard in the SD showcases last year went to their game against DKSC and were missing 4 starters due to injury including their goalie...
 
Socal state cup at the 09 levels shows that top Flight 1 teams can compete and beat ECRL teams. Congrats to Rangers NPL for taking Arsenal ECNL to pk’s. Rangers lost but that just shows that the gap even against ECNL is not as wide as expected. Plenty of talented kids in SoCal 09 that are not in ECNL.
 
SoccerFan4Life said:
Socal state cup at the 09 levels shows that top Flight 1 teams can compete and beat ECRL teams. Congrats to Rangers NPL for taking Arsenal ECNL to pk’s. Rangers lost but that just shows that the gap even against ECNL is not as wide as expected. Plenty of talented kids in SoCal 09 that are not in ECNL.
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As far as I can tell, it looks like the win/loss data fully supports your view. In this particular case, the Rangers team was even slightly favored over Sporting California USA ECNL (Arsenal), by a half goal - but it's close enough to be a toss-up. 47% chance for Rangers, 35% for Arsenal, 18% for a tie. Rangers 19th in state, Arsenal 23rd in state.

But it might not be able to be extrapolated too far. There aren't many non ECNL, non GA teams like the Rangers that could expect a likely similar result. In fact - it looks like there are only 2 other teams in the top 20 that fit into that category, San Juan South SC NPL and San Diego Force DPL. Even including GA teams, that's just an additional 3 out of the 20.
 
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