2007 DA

here's predicts for this coming weekend (11/23). home team is listed first, and order is alpha by home team.

San Diego
Murrieta 2 - Strikers 4
OC Surf 2 - Arsenal 2
RSL AZ 4 - Nomads 2
RSL AZ 3 - LAGSD 1
SC del Sol 4 - LAGSD 1
SC del Sol 6 - Nomads 1
SDSC 3 - Murrieta 2

Los Angeles
LAFC 6 - Legends 1
LAUFA 4 - Real SoCal 1
Pateadores 5 - LA Galaxy 2
Santa Barbara SC 1 - LA Surf 2 - match to watch
note: Santa Barbara made some changes around mid-October and have seen modest improved relative performance since (hence Santa Barbara being - despite a long term lease (so far) in the standings basement - an interesting team to watch, at least for right now).

Santa Barbara still have some significant challenges scoring but D has a solid improvement trend.

Meanwhile, after a solid start to the season, LA Surf had a run of less than great results, with their D, in particular, being decidedly less than stingy. all said, be an interesting match to watch.

Ventura Fusion 1 - TFA 3
 
Kante said:
here's predicts vs actuals for this last weekend (11/16). home team is listed first and in alpha order. as always, any additional insight or commentary to the matches is hugely welcome.

San Diego
predict: Albion 2 - SDSC 2 actuals: Albion 3 - SDSC 1 (thx Vegas for the score!)
note: any insight or commentary from folks who were at the match?

predict: Murrieta Surf 1 - LAGSD 1 actuals: Murrieta Surf 2 - LAGSD 2

predict: Nomads 3 - Chula Vista 3 actuals: Nomads 2 - Chula Vista 4

predict: San Diego Surf 4 - OC Surf 0 actuals: San Diego Surf 8 - OC Surf 0
note: SD Surf was only up at 2-0 at ht but then things got away from OC in the 2nd half with SD Surf scoring 6.

SD Surf played one 2008, who went for a double but that was it despite the previous match's scoreline.

of note, counting showcase matches, SD Surf has had 9 shutouts in their last 11 matches.

predict: Strikers 5 - Arsenal 2 actuals: Strikers 6 - Arsenal 1

LA
predict: FC Golden State 2 - LA Surf 1 actuals: FC Golden State 1 - LA Surf 2
note: LA Surf got a quick one at the 5th minute and then another at the 20th minute. Both from JA. FCG got one back quickly at the 20th minute but, after a fast start, both team then went scoreless for the rest of the match.

FCG rostered two '08s.

any additional commentary or insight here?

predict: LAFC 5 - Santa Barbara SC 0 actuals: LAFC 3 - Santa Barbara SC 0
note: Santa Barbara kept LAFC reasonable with a 0-1 scoreline at ht and then two more quick ones at the beginning of the 2nd half. LAFC's offense has been on a steady decline since the beginning of the season, but their D, after trending the wrong way since the beginning of the season, has picked it up in the last two matches since their October match against Real SoCal.

For Santa Barbara, their D has been improving tangibly since the beginning of the season, but their offense - while there may be some hints of improvement - is still in the SoCal basement. The big changes/improvements seem to have been made after the mid-October match against LAUFA.

Here's the chart for the LAFC offense:
View attachment 5658

Here's the chart for the LAFC defense:
View attachment 5661
____________________________________________

Here's the chart for the Santa Barbara SC offense:
View attachment 5659

Here's the chart for the Santa Barbara SC defense:
View attachment 5660

predict: LA Galaxy 4 - Ventura Fusion 1 actuals: pending - does anyone have the score here?

predict: LA Surf 3 - TFA 4 actuals: pending - does anyone have the score here?

predict: LAUFA 2 - Legends 5 actuals: LAUFA 4 - Legends 2
note: the algo was off on this one but it was a little bit of an odd match.

it was tight in the first half, with LAUFA going into ht w/ a 1-0 lead off a PK four minutes after match start. In the 2nd half, Legends went ahead 2-1 were two quick goals by JO in a five minute period shortly after the 2h started.

But LAUFA tied it at the 58th minute, and continued to push for two more - another PK at the 63rd minute to make it 3-2 and then a run of play goal at the 68th minute for the final 4-2 scoreline.

Anyone have more commentary or insight here?

predict: Real SoCal 1 - FC Golden State 3 actuals: Real SoCal 0 - FC Golden State 2

predict: TFA 3 - Legends 3 actuals: TFA 2 - Legends 1
note: Legends had a bit of a tough weekend with two performance below expectations. only thing that's apparent from the game reports is that it was two away games. anyone have any insight or commentary here?
Click to expand...
11/16 Missing Scores

LA Galaxy 1 - Ventura Fusion 0
LA Surf 1 - TFA 2

Thank you Kante for scores and comments.
 
Kante said:
here's predicts for this coming weekend (11/23). home team is listed first, and order is alpha by home team.

San Diego
Murrieta 2 - Strikers 4
OC Surf 2 - Arsenal 2
RSL AZ 4 - Nomads 2
RSL AZ 3 - LAGSD 1
SC del Sol 4 - LAGSD 1
SC del Sol 6 - Nomads 1
SDSC 3 - Murrieta 2

Los Angeles
LAFC 6 - Legends 1
LAUFA 4 - Real SoCal 1
Pateadores 5 - LA Galaxy 2
Santa Barbara SC 1 - LA Surf 2 - match to watch
note: Santa Barbara made some changes around mid-October and have seen modest improved relative performance since (hence Santa Barbara being - despite a long term lease (so far) in the standings basement - an interesting team to watch, at least for right now).

Santa Barbara still have some significant challenges scoring but D has a solid improvement trend.

Meanwhile, after a solid start to the season, LA Surf had a run of less than great results, with their D, in particular, being decidedly less than stingy. all said, be an interesting match to watch.

Ventura Fusion 1 - TFA 3
Click to expand...
Have two additional scores in from this last weekend (thx Gogo1!)

With those two additional scores, here's LA predicts w/ some revised scorelines for the coming weekend:

Los Angeles
LAFC - Legends 1 (no change)

LAUFA 4 - Real SoCal 1 (no change)

Pateadores 5 - LA Galaxy 2 (no change)

Santa Barbara SC 1 - LA Surf 1 (revised) - match to watch
note: Santa Barbara made some changes around mid-October and have seen modest improved relative performance since (hence Santa Barbara being - despite a long term lease (so far) in the standings basement - an interesting team to watch, at least for right now).

Santa Barbara still have some significant challenges scoring but D has a solid improvement trend.

Meanwhile, after a solid start to the season, LA Surf had a run of less than great results, with their D, in particular, being decidedly less than stingy. all said, be an interesting match to watch.

Ventura Fusion 1 - TFA 2 - (revised) - match to watch (?)
note: aside from a 1-8 shellacking by LAG, Ventura has actually shown a solid defensive improvement trend since the beginning of the season. on the flip side, over the course of the season, Ventura offense has been getting worse almost every match. Ventura had an interesting 0-1 result against LAG this last weekend, and incorporating that result into the data made the predict one goal closer. will be interesting to see how this one goes. last match between these teams was 3-1 TFA.
 
one additional note for the weekend.

had some DM comments that LAFC - Santa Barbara looked a lot like USA - Cuba, except that LAFC had a lot less ball movement than the USA did.

didn't see the LAFC - Santa Barbara match, so apologies if this bunkering characterization is unfair/not accurate.

In general, not sure that bunkering at u13 thru u15 USSDA helps anyone except the coaching staff trying to get a better result in one particular game than they might otherwise from how they've developed their team to date.

might as well line-up all the boys in a wall along the goal line and see if the other team can squeeze their shots into the small spaces above ...

made this point when SD Surf u15 reportedly bunkered vs LAFC, and will make it again in this instance.

prepare the kids adequately, then let the kids play, and learn.
 
Kante said:
one additional note for the weekend.

had some DM comments that LAFC - Santa Barbara looked a lot like USA - Cuba, except that LAFC had a lot less ball movement than the USA did.

didn't see the LAFC - Santa Barbara match, so apologies if this bunkering characterization is unfair/not accurate.

In general, not sure that bunkering at u13 thru u15 USSDA helps anyone except the coaching staff trying to get a better result in one particular game than they might otherwise from how they've developed their team to date.

might as well line-up all the boys in a wall along the goal line and see if the other team can squeeze their shots into the small spaces above ...

made this point when SD Surf u15 reportedly bunkered vs LAFC, and will make it again in this instance.

prepare the kids adequately, then let the kids play, and learn.
Click to expand...

The DA clubs that don't have a full DA program have a lot more pressure to win, or as USDA euphemistically calls "meaningful games". If they don't win those clubs don't get the older age groups. Speculating, but this could be the reason SB was "bunkering".

My son has played for both a limited DA club and a full DA club. I can tell you that the philosophy is dramatically different between the two. The limited DA club was focused on winning over development, and the full DA club, vice versa. Now there could be a number of reasons for this, but my strong suspicion is that winning is more of a priority for limited DA clubs due to the desire to add additional DA ages. I've seen this priority for winning (direct play, booting it out the back, hoofing up to the star player, very limited playing time for the bottom half of the roster) over development from a number of limited DA clubs but I'm not claiming this is universal for those clubs.

If your child is seriously interested in playing DA, my recommendation would be to find a DA program that has a full complement of ages.
 
watfly said:
The DA clubs that don't have a full DA program have a lot more pressure to win, or as USDA euphemistically calls "meaningful games". If they don't win those clubs don't get the older age groups. Speculating, but this could be the reason SB was "bunkering".

My son has played for both a limited DA club and a full DA club. I can tell you that the philosophy is dramatically different between the two. The limited DA club was focused on winning over development, and the full DA club, vice versa. Now there could be a number of reasons for this, but my strong suspicion is that winning is more of a priority for limited DA clubs due to the desire to add additional DA ages. I've seen this priority for winning (direct play, booting it out the back, hoofing up to the star player, very limited playing time for the bottom half of the roster) over development from a number of limited DA clubs but I'm not claiming this is universal for those clubs.

If your child is seriously interested in playing DA, my recommendation would be to find a DA program that has a full complement of ages.
Click to expand...
completely makes sense.
 
watfly said:
My son has played for both a limited DA club and a full DA club. I can tell you that the philosophy is dramatically different between the two...
Click to expand...
I suspect this is more on a club-by-club / coach-by-coach basis. My son was at a limited DA club with a coach who explicitly focused on development over winning. Then they changed coaches and the emphasis changed.
 
Would it be weird if a referee posted thoughts on matches that he/she referee'd? I know you all like your information and gossip on these matches, but there are potential identity and drama concerns that might go into it if I were to share thoughts on matches.
 
Definitelynotanotherref said:
Would it be weird if a referee posted thoughts on matches that he/she referee'd? I know you all like your information and gossip on these matches, but there are potential identity and drama concerns that might go into it if I were to share thoughts on matches.
Click to expand...
I don't see why this would be a problem as long as the comments were kept relatively general (no singling out individual players for sub-par play).
 
here's predicts vs actuals for the last weekend (11/23). home team is listed first, and order is alpha by home team. Happy Turkey Day!

San Diego
predict: Murrieta 2 - Strikers 4 actuals: Murrieta 1 - Strikers 5
predict: OC Surf 2 - Arsenal 2 actuals: OC Surf 2 - Arsenal 2
predict: RSL AZ 4 - Nomads 2 actuals: RSL AZ 6 - Nomads 0
predict: RSL AZ 3 - LAGSD 1 actuals: pending - anyone have score on this one?
predict: SC del Sol 4 - LAGSD 1 actuals: pending - anyone have score on this one?
predict: SC del Sol 6 - Nomads 1 actuals: SC del Sol 8 - Nomads 0
predict: SDSC 3 - Murrieta 2 actuals: SDSC 5 - Murrieta 2

Los Angeles
predict: LAFC 6 - Legends 1 actuals: rescheduled

predict: LAUFA 4 - Real SoCal 1 actuals: LAUFA 4 - Real SoCal 4

predict: Pateadores 5 - LA Galaxy 2 actuals: Pateadores 2 - LA Galaxy 7
note: interesting results. any commentary or insights from anyone? either posted or via?

predict: Santa Barbara SC 1 - LA Surf 1 actuals: Santa Barbara SC 4 - LA Surf 1
note: interesting results. any commentary or insights from anyone? either posted or via?

predict: Ventura Fusion 1 - TFA 2 actuals: Ventura Fusion 2 - TFA 1
 
here's standings as of last weekend. highlighted best offensive teams (top 5 in socal and top 3 in group) and best defensive teams (same). SoCal standings are presented first and group standings are presented second.

here's SoCal standings. A caveat on the standings below is that - at the showcase - LA teams went 8 wins, 5 draws and two losses vs SD teams with 29 goals scored by LA teams vs 13 goals allowed. Point being is that at the u13 level, LA has the edge over SD.

1575014925123.png

Here's LA and SD group standings:

1575016189894.png

Here's commentary:

1) LAFC is still head and shoulders above the rest of the SoCal on both sides of the ball.

2) The Strikers rose five spots in the SoCal ranking, largely on their consistent offensive improvement over the last three months. The Strikers are now averaging the 2nd most goals scored per game in SoCal (behind only LAFC) and the algo actually says the Strikers' offense is - at this point in time - 50% better than any other SoCal team, including LAFC.

The caveat to this is that the Strikers plays in the SD group, which, per the showcase, is not as strong as the LA group.

The Strikers' defense is, so far, just ok/ sort of good and trending in the wrong direction. So, maybe something to work on over the holiday/new years break...

Here's the Strikers' offensive chart (as a reminder, each data point in this chart is the number of goals scored in each match by the Strikers as a % of the average number of goals allowed by that particular opponent.)

1575012147542.png

Here's the Striker's defensive chart. It's a decidely different trend than their offense, although there has been some correction in the last two matches (as a reminder, each data point in this chart is the number of goals allowed in each match by the Strikers as a % of the average number of goals scored by that particular opponent.)

1575012694173.png

3) LAUFA still has a top five offense but also still has a bottom five defense.

Here is LAUFA's Defensive chart to date:

1575010510754.png

LAUFA generally showed defensive improvement thru the first five games of the season, but then started to trend the wrong way, with their 2019 defensive lowlight being against TFA where LAUFA gave up nine goals.

And in their last match of 2019, LAUFA gave up four to Real SoCal, which has a bottom three offense in the LA group.

Given how solid LAUFA's offense has been, LAUFA, with some improvement defensively, could move up significantly in the standings. maybe something to work on over the holiday/new year break...

4) Murrieta Surf has plunged 8 spots in the SoCal ranking, dropping from #4 down to #12. This is largely due to Murrieta's D trending in the wrong direction after their fourth game of the season. Again, something to work on over the holiday/new years break...

Here's Murrieta's Defensive chart:

1575013401658.png

5) While both the LA and SD groups are dominated by one team (LAFC and SD Surf respectively), there is a fair amount of parity after that. In Los Angeles, just .5 points separates the #2 ranked LA team - FC Golden State - from the #8 ranked Legends. In San Diego, #2 ranked RSL is only separated by .5 points from #6 ranked Murrieta.

6) Although LA Surf is trending in the wrong direction, they've also played all but one of their eight games away. At this age, there is a significant home vs away effect - for example, in the LA group, teams playing away have a -40% worse median goal differential than when they at home - and would expect LA Surf to turn it around in the New Year as they play the large majority of their games at home.
 
here's predicts for this weekend. a slow weekend, so spent a bit more time on analysis (for better or worse). LA matches listed first and then SD matches below. (hey strikers, play the kids/08s this weekend)

Los Angeles
FC Golden State 1 - TFA 1
note: FCG had been showing solid improvement thru the first games of the season but something after the 10/6 5-0 win over Santa Barbara. The change was striking, and apparent on both sides of the ball. Can't really tell what happened, but something did happen. (any inisight/comments on this? Can also send insights/comments via DM if you'd rather not make a public comment.

It's notable that FCG has 36 on the team roster (23 of which are pt players) but - like all USSDA teams - can only roster 18 for games.

Here's FCG offense:
1575479793196.png

Here's FCG's defense:
1575475508310.png

LA Surf 1 - Ventura County Fusion 2
note: interesting match here with Ventura trending positive and LA Surf trending negative.

Short version is that Ventura seems to be turning a bit of corner. It looks like they bottomed out around the match vs Santa Barbara in mid October, and have been improving since w/ much better results playing teams a second time (eg, LAUFA, LAG and TFA).

Here's Ventura's offense:
1575479935626.png

Here's Ventura's defense:
1575479318961.png

On the flip side, LA Surf, after a solid start with 3-1 win over LAG and a 5-1 win over TFA at the beginning of the season, have been on steady decline on both of the sides since.

One possible caveat about these trends is that LA Surf has played seven out of eight of their matches away, and intuitively (and statistically with other age and geo groups) it's reasonable to expect teams to do worse playing away.

However, on average this season, the u13 LA teams do about 40% worse offensively playing away but about 50% better defensively. So, net net w/ LA Surf is that they need to take a look at why they were doing better at the beginning of the season and not so much now.

Here's LA Surf's offense:
1575480066128.png

Here's LA Surf's defense:
1575480359763.png

San Diego
Chula Vista 1 - Strikers 6
note: not much to be said here. a really good team playing an OK team. last time these two teams played it was 6-2 Strikers. Algo says similar results again. Maybe an opportunity for the Strikers to play some 08s....?#playthekids
 

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here's predicts vs actuals for this last weekend (12/6/19).

predict: LA Surf 1 - Ventura County Fusion 2 / Actuals: LA Surf 1 - Ventura County Fusion 2
note: tied 0-0 at half. there was a flurry of activity starting at the 59th minute, with LA Surf scoring to make it 1-0. Ventura quickly came back with two quick ones by FG (VC's leading scorer with five goals for the year) at the 61st and 65th minute. LA Surf also had a yellow at the 65th minute.

predict: Chula Vista 1 - Strikers 6 / Actuals: Chula Vista 1 - Strikers 2
note: would like to give Chula Vista credit for making this match competitive but suspect, but am not sure, that's not the case.

Per game report, AH (Strikers 2nd leading scorer w/ 11 goals for the season) scored at the 2nd minute and again at the 3rd minute. Strikers went scoreless from that point on, although they got a card at the 52nd minute. Chula Vista got one in at the 60th minute to make it a 1-2 final result in favor of the Strikers.

Any additional commentary/insights on this one?
 
Can any one confirm or deny a rumor that is floating around and that I've heard from multiple people..... Strikers coach Willie formally of TFA might be taking over Strikers 07 team next year.
 
So season is starting back up.

Here's the predict for the one 07 match this weekend:

Real SoCal 1 - Ventura County Fusion 2
Ventura had an offensive resurgence at the end of the 2019 with a 2-1 win against TFA and a 2-1 win against LA Surf. They seem to have good ball movement with no one player accounting for more than 25% of their goals and 11 players scoring at least once. Defensively, Ventura has shown steady improvement over the course of the season.

Key X factor is how many/which 07s Ventura will play up w/ the 06s. To Ventura's credit, they've been playing 07s up a fair amount since their "real" 06 roster that is showing up in the game reports is 12 players

For reference, the USSDA site lists 15 06s on the Ventura's 06 team roster but the game reports show that only about 12 06s have been rostered for the games since the showcase tournament.

And with RSC's 19 player roster plus the winter break, Ventura may simply need more bodies on the 06 side. Having said that, Ventura may have also added 06 players over the winter break, which would be the reasonable thing to do.

On the RSC side, RSC's offense was showing consistent improvement until their leading scorer - #9 AS - became unavailable starting the Nov 10th match against Santa Barbara. He's been off the game roster since. Would assume but am not sure that this injury. To that point, AS accounted for more than 60% of RSC's goals. However, after two goose eggs with AS out, RSC did a find a way to get four in against LAUFA in their last 2019 match.

On the defensive side, RSC is trending worse over the course of the season, with their worst performance coming in the 0-3 November loss to Santa Barbara.

Net net, although the algo is calling this one close, if AS is still unavailable for RSC and Ventura keeps their 07s playing u13, this one could turn into a lopsided win for Ventura.
 
here's the one predict vs actual for this last weekend

predict: Real SoCal 1 - Ventura County Fusion 2 / actuals: Real SoCal 1 - Ventura County Fusion 1
note: per the game report, score was 1-0 Ventura at ht, w/the Fusion getting a goal right before half. RSC came back quickly in the 2h, with one in at the 40th minute.

RSC's leading scorer - #9/AS - was not rostered for the match. Ventura was missing two players playing up with the 06s.
 
here's predicts for this weekend. not to make excuses but... the last couple of years have seen some unexpected variance coming off the winter break. likely has to do with the wide range of winter break training done by teams. in any case, here's this weekend. home team is listed first.

Los Angeles
TFA 0 - LAFC 3
LAUFA 1 - LA Surf 4
Real SoCal 0 - FC Golden State 2
Santa Barbara SC 1 - Pateadores 2 - match to watch.
note: Santa Barbara beat the Pats 3-1 to start the season, but the algo says that are the stronger team right now. not sure that makes sense. Santa Barbara exited 2019 w/ three strong performances beating RSC and LA Surf by a combined 7-1 and putting up a respectable 0-3 loss to LAFC and lost to LA Galaxy 2-3. Pats beat LA Surf 4-2 and beat LAG 3-1 before lost to them six weeks later 2-7. be interesting one to watch.

San Diego
Albion 5 - Nomads 0
Orange County Surf 1 - Arsenal 2
San Diego Surf 2 - LAGSD 0
Murrieta Surf 1 - Strikers 5
 
Here's predicts vs actual for this last weekend (1/25 and 1/26):

Los Angeles
predict: TFA 0 - LAFC 3 / actuals: TFA 1 - LAFC 1
note: the algo had this as a solid win for LAFC. per game report, TFA got on the board first with a goal at the 21st minute. There was one card against TFA at the 32nd minute. LAFC tied it in the 2nd half w/ a goal at the 39th minute. any comments or insight on this match, either for posting or via dm?

predict: LAUFA 1 - LA Surf 4 / actuals: LAUFA 3 - LA Surf 6
note: The algo had the margin, outcome and predicted a fair amount of scoring but was off on the final score by a fair bit. per game report, it was 3-1 LA Surf at half. GH had a hat track and JA had a double for LA Surf. BM had a double for LAUFA.

predict: Real SoCal 0 - FC Golden State 2 / actuals: Real SoCal 0 - FC Golden State 1

predict: Santa Barbara SC 1 - Pateadores 2 / actual: rescheduled to Feb 24th

San Diego
predict: Albion 5 - Nomads 0 / actuals: n/a
note: does anyone have the score on this match?

predict: Orange County Surf 1 - Arsenal 2 / actuals: Orange County Surf 1 - Arsenal 2

predict: San Diego Surf 2 - LAGSD 0 / actuals: San Diego Surf 4 - LAGSD 0
note: per the game report, LAGSD kept it close in the first half, giving up one goal at the 29th minute and were only down 0-1 at the half. However, there was some sort of LAGSD breakdown about 15 minutes into the second half when SD Surf scored three goals in a three minute period to go up 4-0. any comments or insight on this match, either for posting or via dm?

predict: Murrieta Surf 1 - Strikers 5 / actuals: Murrieta Surf 1 - Strikers 1
note: interesting result here. the algo had the Strikers winning by a fair margin but, instead, Murrieta picked up a a point with the tie. per game report, Murrieta scored first, getting one in at the 22nd minute for a 1-0 Murrieta lead at half. Strikers tied it in the second half with a goal at the 42nd minute. any comments or insight on this match, either for posting or via dm?
 
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