2005 DA Standings

Kante said:
Here actuals vs predicts for last weekend. Lots of interesting results this last weekend. Seems like there may have been a fair amount of winter break rust, but, still, a number of LA teams did much better than expected. Ironically, given the recent news about MLS clubs making noise about withdrawing from USSDA, there may be some parity between teams starting to emerge in the LA group (which was dominated last year by LAFC) now that all teams have played each other at least once.

But, one weekend does not make anything close to a trend, and we’ll see if it continues into the coming weekend.

Here’s the results for last weekend (1/26 & 1/27) vs predicts. Home team is listed first.

Predict: FC Golden State 0 vs LA Galaxy 4. Actuals: FC Golden State 3 vs LAG 0.

Honestly, thought this might be closer than the algo said due to FCG’s rate of improvement this season plus it being an away game for LAG, but did not expect this result. Even allowing for these two items, predicted score would have been 1-1. So, a big kudos to FCG.

Now, the caveats/commentary:

1) Per the game report, LAG was missing four players including two players who are listed as being were called up to the YNT West regional camp over the Jan 20 weekend. Net impact of missing these four players is that LAG was missing 1.08 goals per game against FCG plus the impact of missing a key defender.

2) FCG has been aggressively adding players (and presumably dropping some players) over the season. While the data still looks like FCG’s rate of improvement is due to player development, FCG has 24 players listed on their USSDA roster but, per the game report, did not play eight of these players.

May be a hopeless romantic, but it would be nice to think that FCG is a player development success story/best practice rather than a recruitment story but that may not be the case. ​

Predict: LAUFA 1 vs LAFC 4. Actuals: LAUFA 0 vs LAFC 0.

LAUFA has had a tough time this year relative to their results last year, with LAG poaching a number of key 2017-18 players and then a fair amount of player churn through the season to date. This result, particularly given that the previous result vs LAFC was 0-9 loss, is solid.

The game report lists a couple of LAUFA cards and that LAFC fielded a mostly full 05 team. So not much detail. Does anyone have more color/info/opinions on this match?​

Predict: Santa Barbara SC 1 vs Real SoCal 2. Actuals: Santa Barbara SC 3 vs Real SoCal 0.

Real SoCal has gone scoreless in its last four matches, and has been allowing more goals as a % of average goals scored every week since they beat LAFC 1-0. See chart below.

By way of background, Santa Barbara SC had a bad weekend on 1/20, rostering only 10 players to play FCG in 0-10 loss but seems to be recovering, rostering 15 players for a solid result this weekend. Also, their player who attended the 1/20 YNT West regional camp was back, and contributed two of their three goals against RSC.

Other than that, not a lot of info from the game report, does anyone have more color/info/opinions on this match?

Here's the RSC goals allowed % chart (because it's goals allowed, a negative % is better):

View attachment 3879​

Predict: Strikers 4 vs OC Surf 1. Actuals: Strikers 3 vs OC Surf 0.

Not a lot in the game report. OC Surf improved on their previous 1-6 loss result with the Strikers. does anyone have more color/info/opinions on this match?​

Predict: TFA 4 vs Legends 1. Actuals: TFA 0 vs Legends 3.

Another match with a surprising result. Not quite sure how to call this one. This feels similar to when TFA posted a 0-2 loss the FCG in November. In their first meeting with each team, TFA beat FCG 7-0 and beat Legends 3-0. Does anyone have more color/info/opinions on this match?​

Predict: SDSC 0 vs SD Surf 6. Actuals: SDSC 0 vs SD Surf 4

From the game report, SD Surf scored 3 of four goals in the 2nd half, so may have sat most of their starting front line in the first half. does anyone have more color/info/opinions on this match?​
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FCG vs LAG : LA Galaxy had a total of 5 starting players out including 3 that got called to the YNT camp only 1 got to play the second half of the game when they were already down 2-0. Also they played a couple of 06's that did really good in this game.
 
Kante said:
Here actuals vs predicts for last weekend. Lots of interesting results this last weekend. Seems like there may have been a fair amount of winter break rust, but, still, a number of LA teams did much better than expected. Ironically, given the recent news about MLS clubs making noise about withdrawing from USSDA, there may be some parity between teams starting to emerge in the LA group (which was dominated last year by LAFC) now that all teams have played each other at least once.

But, one weekend does not make anything close to a trend, and we’ll see if it continues into the coming weekend.

Here’s the results for last weekend (1/26 & 1/27) vs predicts. Home team is listed first.

Predict: FC Golden State 0 vs LA Galaxy 4. Actuals: FC Golden State 3 vs LAG 0.

Honestly, thought this might be closer than the algo said due to FCG’s rate of improvement this season plus it being an away game for LAG, but did not expect this result. Even allowing for these two items, predicted score would have been 1-1. So, a big kudos to FCG.

Now, the caveats/commentary:

1) Per the game report, LAG was missing four players including two players who are listed as being were called up to the YNT West regional camp over the Jan 20 weekend. Net impact of missing these four players is that LAG was missing 1.08 goals per game against FCG plus the impact of missing a key defender.

2) FCG has been aggressively adding players (and presumably dropping some players) over the season. While the data still looks like FCG’s rate of improvement is due to player development, FCG has 24 players listed on their USSDA roster but, per the game report, did not play eight of these players.

May be a hopeless romantic, but it would be nice to think that FCG is a player development success story/best practice rather than a recruitment story but that may not be the case. ​

Predict: LAUFA 1 vs LAFC 4. Actuals: LAUFA 0 vs LAFC 0.

LAUFA has had a tough time this year relative to their results last year, with LAG poaching a number of key 2017-18 players and then a fair amount of player churn through the season to date. This result, particularly given that the previous result vs LAFC was 0-9 loss, is solid.

The game report lists a couple of LAUFA cards and that LAFC fielded a mostly full 05 team. So not much detail. Does anyone have more color/info/opinions on this match?​

Predict: Santa Barbara SC 1 vs Real SoCal 2. Actuals: Santa Barbara SC 3 vs Real SoCal 0.

Real SoCal has gone scoreless in its last four matches, and has been allowing more goals as a % of average goals scored every week since they beat LAFC 1-0. See chart below.

By way of background, Santa Barbara SC had a bad weekend on 1/20, rostering only 10 players to play FCG in 0-10 loss but seems to be recovering, rostering 15 players for a solid result this weekend. Also, their player who attended the 1/20 YNT West regional camp was back, and contributed two of their three goals against RSC.

Other than that, not a lot of info from the game report, does anyone have more color/info/opinions on this match?

Here's the RSC goals allowed % chart (because it's goals allowed, a negative % is better):

View attachment 3879​

Predict: Strikers 4 vs OC Surf 1. Actuals: Strikers 3 vs OC Surf 0.

Not a lot in the game report. OC Surf improved on their previous 1-6 loss result with the Strikers. does anyone have more color/info/opinions on this match?​

Predict: TFA 4 vs Legends 1. Actuals: TFA 0 vs Legends 3.

Another match with a surprising result. Not quite sure how to call this one. This feels similar to when TFA posted a 0-2 loss the FCG in November. In their first meeting with each team, TFA beat FCG 7-0 and beat Legends 3-0. Does anyone have more color/info/opinions on this match?​

Predict: SDSC 0 vs SD Surf 6. Actuals: SDSC 0 vs SD Surf 4

From the game report, SD Surf scored 3 of four goals in the 2nd half, so may have sat most of their starting front line in the first half. does anyone have more color/info/opinions on this match?​
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Legends defense controlled TFAs talented front line for the most part. TFA did break through to get a few good chances in 1st half, but shots nearly missed and keeper made an amazing save on one. Legends was opportunistic to put in a couple, and put in a late goal when TFa was pressing.
It could have been worse. TFA striker received his 2nd yellow card with about 25 mins to go, but he did not get thrown out. Definitely a chippy affair, and the field TFA plays on his really beat up, making it tough to play a clean brand of soccer.
 
Here’s predicts for this weekend (2/2/& 2/3). Home team is listed first. The extended notes on LA are due, mostly, to what could be greater emerging parity within the LA group. Next week will take a look at SD match ups in more detail to see where things are at after the winter break.

San Diego
Albion 2 v. OC Surf 2

Arsenal 1 v. SD Surf 2 (SD Surf is ranked #1 tin the country by TopDrawer Dec '18)
This match is the most interesting SD match of the weekend. These teams are two of SD's top three teams (the other being the Strikers) and Arsenal may have the backline size to handle SD Surf's striker. However, it's Arsenal's first group play match since 11/17 so there will be some rust.

LAGSD 3 v. Nomads 1

Los Angeles
FC Golden State 3 v. Pateadores 1
This game will be the most interesting LA match of the weekend. FCG has been improving significantly over the course of the season. If they continue their improvements, the projection – as opposed to the general algorithm - for this match is FCG 7 v. Pats 0.

However, the Pats, after getting off to a not great start this season, have produced unexpected positive results in their last two matches with a tie against LAUFA two weeks back and a win last week against Legends. For context, both are solid teams and for example, last week, LAUFA tied LAFC 0-0 and the Legends beat TFA.

Pats seem to have pulled out these results with two new players, one from the Fullerton Rangers and one from North Huntington Beach.

And adding to the narrative, FC Golden State also have very recently added players from the Fullerton and NHB, and these players also seem to be contributing to positive results

Net net, lots of interesting plot and subplots here. Should be fun to watch.

LAFC 5 v. Santa Barbara SC 0 (LAFC is ranked #6 in the country by TopDrawer Dec '18)
Last week, LAFC had a less than optimal result against LAUFA and Santa Barbara SC had a solid result against Real SoCal, but, likely, both teams will revert to their mean this weekend

Real SoCal 1 v. TFA 3 (TFA is ranked #8 in the country by Top Drawer Dec '18)
Another interesting match. Real SoCal, despite recently adding a couple of new players, has gone scoreless in their last four matches and, looking at the trends, may have peaked w/ their 1-0 result against LAFC in the fourth game of the season.

On the other hand, TFA is a relatively young team and may have a hard time matching up w/ older, bigger teams (the last two matches against FCG and Legends being examples) and Real SoCal has some bigger players. And, similar to Real SoCal, TFA has been trending worse as well.

And both team have a significant home/away effect, with TFA being -50% worse away team and RealSoCal being a much better home team.

Last time these teams played it was 2-1 for TFA. With TFA being the home team

Accounting for the trends and the home/away effect (Real SoCal is the home team this weekend), the projection – as opposed to the general algo – is, ironically after all that, Real SoCal 1 v. TFA 3.
 
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Kante said:
FC Golden State 3 v. Pateadores 1
This game will be the most interesting LA match of the weekend. FCG has been improving significantly over the course of the season. If they continue their improvements, the projection – as opposed to the general algorithm - for this match is FCG 7 v. Pats 0.

However, the Pats, after getting off to a not great start this season, have produced unexpected positive results in their last two matches with a tie against LAUFA two weeks back and a win last week against Legends. For context, both are solid teams and for example, last week, LAUFA tied LAFC 0-0 and the Legends beat TFA.

Pats seem to have pulled out these results with two new players, one from the Fullerton Rangers and one from North Huntington Beach.

And adding to the narrative, FC Golden State also have very recently added players from the Fullerton and NHB, and these players also seem to be contributing to positive results

Net net, lots of interesting plot and subplots here. Should be fun to watch.
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Final from UC Riverside
FCGS - 2
Pats - 0
Truthfully it was a pretty sloppy game for FCGS. 1st goal was caused by a bad play by the Pats goalie. He lost the ball on a play back from his defender. 2nd goal was a good from the left side of the field. Plus 2 shots off the crossbar. Practice should be interesting this week.

Pats came with only 12 players and FCGS had at least 2 out sick ( a forward and a goalie ).

As for the weather, it was wet and cold of course. The turf field was slippery. No down pour but there was light rain on and off during the match.

Now to dry up and get ready for The Super Bowl.
 
RedCard said:
Final from UC Riverside
FCGS - 2
Pats - 0
Truthfully it was a pretty sloppy game for FCGS. 1st goal was caused by a bad play by the Pats goalie. He lost the ball on a play back from his defender. 2nd goal was a good from the left side of the field. Plus 2 shots off the crossbar. Practice should be interesting this week.

Pats came with only 12 players and FCGS had at least 2 out sick ( a forward and a goalie ).

As for the weather, it was wet and cold of course. The turf field was slippery. No down pour but there was light rain on and off during the match.

Now to dry up and get ready for The Super Bowl.
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I get The Pats roster part but doesn’t GSA
Have about 25 players? How many have left ?
 
Kante said:
Per the game report, Surf had a several players out but Arsenal also had a couple of key players out as well. Any particular reason the boys were out? The SD identification center is coming up but is on 2/20.
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SD players surf I was told the reason by a parent from there but is not my place to share it
As for Arsenal from the official roster 2 players are no longer with the team and my younger son was given the chance to play down this game.
 
66 GTO said:
SD players surf I was told the reason by a parent from there but is not my place to share it
As for Arsenal from the official roster 2 players are no longer with the team and my younger son was given the chance to play down this game.
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Got it. Thx. Hope nothing bad. Good for your son.
 
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66 GTO said:
I get The Pats roster part but doesn’t GSA
Have about 25 players? How many have left ?
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Per the game reports, FCG has 25 2005s listed as part of the team but I think teams can only roster a max of 18 players as active for a game.

So for any given game, the coach may be only rostering what he believes to be the 18 best/18 who earned it that week. Would defer to the FCG folks for more info as to what's going on.

Their coach seems to be consistently rotating players and only two FCG players have been rostered for all the last 6 games.

There are four players who have not been rostered for the first 3 games of 2019. Don't know the "why" behind this and would again, defer to FCG folks for more info/color. Maybe they dropped, maybe it's just their turn not to be rostered.
 
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here predicts vs actuals for the last weekend. Sounds like a wet weekend everywhere made for interesting games w/ some uncharacteristic play.

Los Angeles
Predict: FCG 3 v Pats 1. Actuals: FC 2 v Pats 0. RedCard provided some good commentary above on the match. Would love to hear more color on how FCG is managing the roster on game day. Seems to be effective and maybe a best practice for other teams.

Predict: Real SoCal 1 v TFA 3. Actuals: Real SoCal 1 v TFA 1. TFA has been having a tough time on both sides of the ball since they beat LAG in early November. More on that in a different post. Real SoCal picked it up a bit, scoring their first goal in four games and keeping TFA's offense in check. Will see if this correction is a trend or an outlier next weekend when they play FCG.

LAFC and Santa Barbara SC was postponed.

San Diego
Predict: Albion 2 v OC Surf 2. Actuals: Albion 2 v OC Surf 2.

Predict: Arsenal 1 v SD Surf 2. Actuals: Arsenal 0 v SD Surf 3. per 66GTO, two Arsenal players are no longer with the team. Looking at the stats though, the gap should not have affected the match outcome. On the SD Surf side, per the game report, ten 2005 players were out with four 2006s filling in. Hoping the SD Surf 2005s were out for a good news reason (any more color on this? bueller?). SD Surf still had several of their key core players and, in a wet game, that was enough to keep Arsenal under control and put in three goals (two from a 2006). Thanks 66GTO and PIRLO for comments. And kudos to the SD Surf for playing boys up.

Predict: LAGSD 3 v Nomads 1. Actuals: LAGSD 2 v Nomads 1. So last week, listed SD Surf, Strikers and Arsenal the top three SD teams. After looking at the stats more carefully, apologies are due to LAGSD. LAGSD is definitely in the top 3. This is particularly striking since their 2017-18 roster was poached so heavily pre-season by LAG and a couple of other SD area teams. Nice work. Should be an interesting match w/ Arsenal this weekend.





 
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here's predicts for this weekend. home team is listed first. 1st, weather will be brisk but should be waaaaaay better than last week. 2nd, a number of teams are now playing each other for the second time and it will be interesting to see which teams improved and how teams, now that they are more familiar with each other, generally will do.

SD
Arsenal 1 v LAGSD 2. Will likely be the best match in SD this weekend. Algo had this at a 1-1 tie, but given trends, particularly LAGSD getting better scoring goals, LAGSD for the win.

OC Surf 2 v. SDSC 1. This one is what it is.

Nomads 2 v. Albion 1. An interesting match. Nomads are better this year than last, and Albion lost some significant players to the SD Surf, and net net, both teams are pretty even this year. with no big improvements - but also no big declines - over time. There is home/away effect that will benefit the Nomads so that's the call. FYI, Algo gives the slight edge to the Nomads but has the result at a 2-2 tie

LA
LAG 2 v. TFA 1. Both teams are nationally ranked by Top Drawer, and TFA was the first team to put an L on LAG this year plus 3-4 LAG players were suspended last weekend and will/should be looking to get back to it.

However, both teams have been performing progressively worse over the course of the season. Both LAG's goal scoring and defending are getting consistently worse over time. On the other side of the field, something changed with TFA after their win against LAG in mid-November with both their goal scoring and defending taking a nose dive after that point in time. To be fair to LAG, they have had three key 05 players consistently playing up with the u15 team, and that may have contributed to the decline in performance, (and good on them for playing kids up rather than being focused on padding their win/loss sheet)

Last item is that LAG ... have to be careful not overstate here ... is horrible away from Carson. here's the stats: LAG is +5.1 goal differential at home, and -.2 goal differential away.

Trending out and allowing for the LAG away effect (TFA has also a home/away effect but not as pronounced), the score could be LAG 1 v. TFA 4.

But, LAG probably pulls it out. Will be fascinated to hear how it goes.

LAFC 3 v. Legends 0. Last match result was LAFC 1 v. Legends 0. Legends are solid, particularly on D, and a good physical match-up for LAFC but LAFC is better. Familiarity probably doesn't help the Legends here (but does help LAFC), and will be interesting to see how LAFC center mid does against Legends d-mid.

LAUFA 4 v. Pats 1. Both teams are having some organizational challenges. Pats fielded just 12 players last week while LAUFA is churning through players with another player officially leaving to go back to RSC recently. Stats say LAUFA wins it but it depends who they're able to put on the field.

RSC 0 v FCG 1. FCG has been improving significantly over time this season and has the size to make Real SoCal work. RSC, on the other hand, had been having some issues and was showing a declining trend over time in performance on both sides of the ball.

Algo has this as a defensive-minded 1-1 tie with a slight edge to FCG, but am thinking that FCG has the forward size to give RSC a tougher time than a tie, and RSC doesn't seem to have the offense to get it back going the other way. RSC may just park the bus to get the point but FCG probably wears them out.
 
Kante said:
here's predicts for this weekend. home team is listed first. 1st, weather will be brisk but should be waaaaaay better than last week.
RSC 0 v FCG 1.
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Final score from Ventura County
RSC - 1
FCGS - 0

Real SoCal score off a free kick about 20 yards out just inside the far post. FCGS players were saying it was an own goal going off the back of one of the defender’s head.Doesn’t matter as a goal is a goal.

Weather was a huge factor as there was a heavy down pour for most of the game and the wind didn’t help either team but both teams were able to tough it out.
 
Here's predicts vs actuals from this weekend (2/9 & 2/10). Had a lot of the scores correct but going the wrong way. Some close matches, still some winter break rust plus weather was a factor in some matches. There's enough games now to take more systematically look at how home vs away affects results and to look at trends. predicts should be better next weekend.

SD
Predict: Arsenal 1 v LAGSD 2. Actuals: Arsenal 2 v LAGSD 1. Thx 66GTO for early results! Good win by Arsenal and they came back from being down 0-1. Per the game report, LAGSD looks like they missing 5 players who they normally roster. Is this typical? This match looks like it was interesting. Does anyone have more commentary?

Predict: OC Surf 2 v. SDSC 1. Actuals: OC Surf 1 v. SDSC 1. Per the game report, SDSC tied it up at the end. Does anyone have more commentary?

Predict: Nomads 2 v. Albion 1. Actuals: Nomads 1 v. Albion 2. Thx justneedaname for early results! Per the game report, Albion got out to an early lead and held for the win.

LA
Predict: LAG 2 v. TFA 1. Actuals: LAG 4 v. TFA 2. Per the game report, LAG brought the full squad and intensity (3 yellows), and one of the players who had to sit out after breaking curfew at the US training camp went for a hat trick, including a goal at the beginning of the game. TFA also brought the intensity with three yellow cards as well. However, they were playing from behind the whole match which was probably tough. This match looks like it was interesting. Does anyone have more commentary?

Predict: LAFC 3 v. Legends 0. Actuals: LAFC 2 v. Legends 1. Per the game report, Legends got one early from their 2004 player (March '04 birthday) who is also the Legends leading scorer (he shows up on the game report but not their USSDA roster). LAFC rallied in the second half for for the win, were missing two key players and rostered three '06s. This match looks like it was interesting. Does anyone have more commentary?

Predict: LAUFA 4 v. Pats 1. Actuals: LAUFA 4 v. Pats 3. Pats match up well with LAUFA (last match was 1-2), and a solid performance. First half was tight with the score 0-0, and then opened up in the second half. This match looks like it was interesting. Does anyone have more commentary?

Predict: RSC 0 v FCG 1. Actuals: RSC 1 v FCG 0. Here's commentary from RedCard (thx!): "Real SoCal score off a free kick about 20 yards out just inside the far post. FCGS players were saying it was an own goal going off the back of one of the defender’s head. Doesn’t matter as a goal is a goal. Weather was a huge factor as there was a heavy down pour for most of the game and the wind didn’t help either team but both teams were able to tough it out."
 
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Kante said:



Predict: RSC 0 v FCG 1. Actuals: RSC 0 v FCG 1. Here's commentary from RedCard (thx!): "Real SoCal score off a free kick about 20 yards out just inside the far post. FCGS players were saying it was an own goal going off the back of one of the defender’s head. Doesn’t matter as a goal is a goal. Weather was a huge factor as there was a heavy down pour for most of the game and the wind didn’t help either team but both teams were able to tough it out."
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I think the score is wrong here ‍♂️
 
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