Here actuals vs predicts for last weekend. Lots of interesting results this last weekend. Seems like there may have been a fair amount of winter break rust, but, still, a number of LA teams did much better than expected. Ironically, given the recent news about MLS clubs making noise about withdrawing from USSDA, there may be some parity between teams starting to emerge in the LA group (which was dominated last year by LAFC) now that all teams have played each other at least once.
But, one weekend does not make anything close to a trend, and we’ll see if it continues into the coming weekend.
Here’s the results for last weekend (1/26 & 1/27) vs predicts. Home team is listed first.
Predict: FC Golden State 0 vs LA Galaxy 4. Actuals: FC Golden State 3 vs LAG 0.
Honestly, thought this might be closer than the algo said due to FCG’s rate of improvement this season plus it being an away game for LAG, but did not expect this result. Even allowing for these two items, predicted score would have been 1-1. So, a big kudos to FCG.
Now, the caveats/commentary:
1) Per the game report, LAG was missing four players including two players who are listed as being were called up to the YNT West regional camp over the Jan 20 weekend. Net impact of missing these four players is that LAG was missing 1.08 goals per game against FCG plus the impact of missing a key defender.
2) FCG has been aggressively adding players (and presumably dropping some players) over the season. While the data still looks like FCG’s rate of improvement is due to player development, FCG has 24 players listed on their USSDA roster but, per the game report, did not play eight of these players.
May be a hopeless romantic, but it would be nice to think that FCG is a player development success story/best practice rather than a recruitment story but that may not be the case.
Predict: LAUFA 1 vs LAFC 4. Actuals: LAUFA 0 vs LAFC 0.
LAUFA has had a tough time this year relative to their results last year, with LAG poaching a number of key 2017-18 players and then a fair amount of player churn through the season to date. This result, particularly given that the previous result vs LAFC was 0-9 loss, is solid.
The game report lists a couple of LAUFA cards and that LAFC fielded a mostly full 05 team. So not much detail. Does anyone have more color/info/opinions on this match?
Predict: Santa Barbara SC 1 vs Real SoCal 2. Actuals: Santa Barbara SC 3 vs Real SoCal 0.
Real SoCal has gone scoreless in its last four matches, and has been allowing more goals as a % of average goals scored every week since they beat LAFC 1-0. See chart below.
By way of background, Santa Barbara SC had a bad weekend on 1/20, rostering only 10 players to play FCG in 0-10 loss but seems to be recovering, rostering 15 players for a solid result this weekend. Also, their player who attended the 1/20 YNT West regional camp was back, and contributed two of their three goals against RSC.
Other than that, not a lot of info from the game report, does anyone have more color/info/opinions on this match?
Here's the RSC goals allowed % chart (because it's goals allowed, a negative % is better):
Predict: Strikers 4 vs OC Surf 1. Actuals: Strikers 3 vs OC Surf 0.
Not a lot in the game report. OC Surf improved on their previous 1-6 loss result with the Strikers. does anyone have more color/info/opinions on this match?
Predict: TFA 4 vs Legends 1. Actuals: TFA 0 vs Legends 3.
Another match with a surprising result. Not quite sure how to call this one. This feels similar to when TFA posted a 0-2 loss the FCG in November. In their first meeting with each team, TFA beat FCG 7-0 and beat Legends 3-0. Does anyone have more color/info/opinions on this match?
Predict: SDSC 0 vs SD Surf 6. Actuals: SDSC 0 vs SD Surf 4
From the game report, SD Surf scored 3 of four goals in the 2nd half, so may have sat most of their starting front line in the first half. does anyone have more color/info/opinions on this match?
