Rumors are flying that the Russians are burning their papers at the embassy in Warsaw and have informed nonessential embassy personnel to leave the country immediately. Speculation is that Putin is getting ready to issue an ultimatum to Poland to cease acting as a conduit for military support to Ukraine or face attack.
War in Ukraine soon?
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whatithink
GOLD
I hadn't heard those rumors, but I think the Poles have put a giant stake in the ground with Putin by expelling 45 diplomats and blocking the embassy bank accounts. They have delivered a huge FU in the clear knowledge that they are a member of Nato and any direct action by him will bring a direct response from Nato. I doubt they are making these decisions in isolation. I would also doubt there is much appetite in Russia for a military confrontation with Nato given they are having their asses handed to them in the Ukraine (relatively speaking).
As I've said before, as calculations go, by Putin, he has f-d up beyond all recognition. He has done more to unify and reenergize Nato than anything or anyone in decades and he has the EU moving towards a unified defense strategy, the freaking EU!!!
Reading tea leaves here, but seems to me that events on the ground have plainly gotten away from Putin, and both in dollars and lives I'd say Russia isn't moving in the troops to control the territory he's claiming. So this has moved to the endgame of what Russia gets to go away.
As someone who thinks we need to stick it to Putin, I think Biden's slow cautious approach is actually pretty smart. As long as Putin remains the only 'bad' actor, the European public will be more accepting of the higher gas prices that are required to break their addiction to the russian fuel. Same here in America, sticking it to Putin is going to require the public not to totally freak out at higher energy prices. Which to me, with gas at $6 a gallon, is still better than letting our egos talk us into another war.
whatithink
GOLD
I agree, paying more for gas or having to deal with inflation is a lot cheaper than the enormous blood and treasure to be paid in a potential conflict with Russia. I also think Biden has performed pretty well, balancing support for Ukraine and galvanizing the international community in that support, with a few notable exceptions, vs a more militant approach and/or an approach that stresses a united Western front.
I largely agree with your assessment but my one critique is that Biden hasn't really been leading this....all this is being pushed by the Europeans (strangely united for a change from the anti-EU brits, the formerly pro-Russian Germans, Macron, and the EU-critique Poles). Biden has been largely pulled along in all this, and has been the one to actually pull the breaks on some of the more extreme stuff (like airplanes to Ukraine from Poland). He's leading from behind. That, however, may be the best thing that is called for in these circumstances so I agree with your assessment "performed pretty well". Macron shaped the policy far more than Biden and the US
whatithink
GOLD
Yes, and I think that's a very good thing actually. US administrations have been calling the Europeans to take more of a lead, and for example meet the 2% Nato spending on defense and have been resisted. Supporting and "following" is sensible in this instance and not dwelling on any "told you so's", but focusing on the now and future. I would add that I think Germany changed the tenure of the whole conversation by both shipping arms to the Ukraine and committing an immediate increase in defense spending to $100B and stating that they will meet the 2%.
I do have a concern that Pandora's box may have been opened with a potential European arms race now in play. Europe has a very robust arms industry and has the financial wherewithall to ramp up very quickly. I have no doubt, for example, that Germany could go full nuclear very quickly if they so desired, and repeated threats from Russia of its nuclear capabilities could push them in that direction.
Haha I'll admit the worlds 'Biden in charge' causes my eye to twitch. However if there was ever an international crisis Biden had the skillset to manage; holding the big stick while managing the egos and nuance of European politics to fend off Cold War like Russian aggression in Europe- is probably it.
Joe from Scranton is a low ego guy, not some squawky yankee who the stinky cheese crowd is going to instinctually hate. And it's allowing him to rally the Europeans to the NATO alliance, and giving us strategic options to advance American interests in a way that Trump (or even maybe a De Santis) could not hope to emulate.
I agree about the europeans. You talk to Germans these days and they prance around like leprechauns, always taking the moral high ground and you forget they only switched away from 'might makes right' after WW2 when their position in the world had changed. But given the historical precedent of so many European attempts for world domination... I personally sleep better knowing the Germans don't have nukes.
I do not understand your response.
This BBC video below shows
1. Ukraines far right attemtping to overthrow the Ukrainian government for agreeing to the Minsk accord that would have been the framework for peace to East Ukraine.
2. This tells me that Ukraine has a weak government and there is a lack of political will to solve the issue in East Ukraine and proven by 8 years of stalemate.
3. If Ukraine joins NATO, and with the far right being so powerful (in the video, they can be seen battling the Ukrainian army for a smuggling route), it opens up a potential of NATO vs Russia conflict.
3. Putin comes in to help the Russians in East Ukraine.
So why should we not be supporing Putin efforts? What is the other side of the argument? Just a land grab by Putin? That simple? No country has successfully land grab another nation without local support in the past few decades, I am sure Putin knows this.
1. Ukraines far right attemtping to overthrow the Ukrainian government for agreeing to the Minsk accord that would have been the framework for peace to East Ukraine.
2. This tells me that Ukraine has a weak government and there is a lack of political will to solve the issue in East Ukraine and proven by 8 years of stalemate.
3. If Ukraine joins NATO, and with the far right being so powerful (in the video, they can be seen battling the Ukrainian army for a smuggling route), it opens up a potential of NATO vs Russia conflict.
3. Putin comes in to help the Russians in East Ukraine.
So why should we not be supporing Putin efforts? What is the other side of the argument? Just a land grab by Putin? That simple? No country has successfully land grab another nation without local support in the past few decades, I am sure Putin knows this.
It's not censored. Anyone can view it on youtube.
Yes these are gaffs that make Biden looks silly I do agree with you on that. But then again Biden has a long history of speaking gaffs in public and then walking them back. I know it, you know it, the europeans know it. What Putin thinks of it I don't know, but the point I'm making is this is a well known character tic...
So I don't know these past two odd statements really matters or changes much if anything.
Yeah yeah yeah... remember the Minsk accord, where someone else decided for the Ukrainians who gets to run their government. As an American, my opinion is let freedom ring:
"We hold these truths to be self-evident, that all men are created equal, that they are endowed by their Creator with certain unalienable Rights, that among these are Life, Liberty and the pursuit of Happiness—That to secure these rights, Governments are instituted among Men, deriving their just powers from the consent of the governed—That whenever any Form of Government becomes destructive of these ends, it is the Right of the People to alter or to abolish it, and to institute new Government, laying its foundation on such principles and organizing its powers in such form, as to them shall seem most likely to effect their Safety and Happiness."
I don’t know if anyone does either , but calling for regime change of a nuclear power isn’t great .
clearly, Biden said the quiet part out loud, and even his cheerleaders in the press know it was a big mistake
With friends like these...
www.politico.eu
Putin’s useful German idiots
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is a repudiation of a whole generation of German politicians from across the spectrum.
www.politico.eu
They say when God closes a door, he opens another. I do not remember if I heard this in church or was it sound of music. But with Russia Today now banned on youtube, other channels are filling the space. This guy who is a Dartmouth graduate is pretty interesting. I listend to an entire 2 hour of his podcast yesterday and I hardly ever listned to something that long. He has been living in Ukraine for a while and offers some interesting dissection or inside story of the events.
I'm skeptical that Ukraine would have gotten much support, either from the Euro's or the US, if it hadn't been for their resolve and the giant pair on Zelensky (who is also a master marketer). Everyone likes a front runner. Ukraine deserves all the credit for leadership on this conflict and emboldening NATO countries.
You're probably in the minority
I think Putin probably understands that they are gaffes as well, but it makes great bulletin board for Putin to sell to the Russians. Biden may be Putin's best propagandist.