Vaccine

EvilGoalie 21 said:
Re the bats: In the natural derivation scenario, the bats would have infected pangolins as an intermediate host at a site other than Wuhan (southern Asia, Africa, etc), leading to a co-infection cycle of bat and pangolin C-viruses within the same animals. Scales from these pangolins, or possibly live animals, were then transported to markets in Wuhan where CoV-2 made the jump. Genome sequence comparisons support the idea there are segments of both pangolin and bat C-virus present in CoV-2, suggesting recombination between the two viral genomes occurred. Such recombination events are hardwired into the the C-virus replicative cycle and are part of the reason this group of viruses can evolve so quickly. Whether these recombination events occurred naturally at a site other than Wuhan or as part of a laboratory study conducted in Wuhan is an unresolved question. But whether the bats are native to Wuhan does not weigh in on it directly. A thing to keep in mind is that, no matter the sequence of events in this particular case, CoV-2 could quite readily have arisen through a relatively well understood natural process. As humans come into new contact with co-evolved natural host-virus relationships around the globe, some virologists are predicting that we will be seeing more of these zoonotic outbreaks in the immediate future.
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other are some sciency technical reasons why we should be suspicious about this being natural. I'm not really competent to discuss but I'll refer you to the prior writings posted here for that. But there are two non-sciency things that cut against this: 1. the Chinese have been looking high and wide for the bats and pangolins. They have yet to find it. 2. The chinese have been stone walling the investigation: if it wasn't engineered or a naturally occurring lab leak, what's the motivation to hide it? It doesn't make any sense, particularly when it you compare it to the intelligence which has been reported surrounding the wuhan lab. From a propaganda point of view, if it was natural, it makes the most sense to completely cooperate with the investigation to clear the wuhan lab and then shift the blame to the US (like they attempted to do). But that's not what the Chinese did.

humans having been coming into contact with new natural host viruses for the last at least 70 years now. frequent jet travel and interconnected logistics have been in place since the 60s (yes, you can argue China and the second world were separated from that chain but China has been interconnected since the 90s and is a big enough network in and of itself). If anything, it's a missive that we should stop doing stupid stuff like the wet markets but all indications are that's not what happened here.
 
I'm agnostic about the origin. Like I said much earlier, i can see it either way and nothing you post below sorts it out in the way you suggest it does in the end.

Grace T. said:
1. the Chinese have been looking high and wide for the bats and pangolins. They have yet to find it.
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The "it" in this case is not the hosts. It's the host with the correct C-virus genome sequence so the phylogeny can be reconstructed. Working phylogenies forward is easy; working them backwards is hard. Care to take a guess as to C-virus genetic diversity in the wild?

Grace T. said:
2. The chinese have been stone walling the investigation: if it wasn't engineered or a naturally occurring lab leak, what's the motivation to hide it? It doesn't make any sense, particularly when it you compare it to the intelligence which has been reported surrounding the wuhan lab. From a propaganda point of view, if it was natural, it makes the most sense to completely cooperate with the investigation to clear the wuhan lab and then shift the blame to the US (like they attempted to do). But that's not what the Chinese did.
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Could easily have been a lab leak. After all that's what they do at the Wuhan institute. Explore recombination in zoonotic viruses. Governments are often not forthcoming about all kinds of things. Imagine what we might say if the Chinese wanted to come over and get a "free to roam the halls" pass at Ft. Detrick. A thorough inspection of the viral stocks at Wuhan might shed some light, although the relevant material could have been bleached some time ago.

Grace T. said:
humans having been coming into contact with new natural host viruses for the last at least 70 years now. it's a missive that we should stop doing stupid stuff
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Yep. Ebola, SARS, MERS, Covid-19. All in the blink of an eye really.

Grace T. said:
All indications are that's not what happened here.
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None of what you write here is definitive one way or another, no matter how you dress it up for it's big debating wrap up. Do you think SARS or MERS were also lab leaks? This one may or may not have recombined in the wild. Natural processes can readily promote such outbreaks is the point. More may be forthcoming.
 
Grace T. said:
It's a pandemic of the unvaccinated and unmasked!

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1455942616898433028
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Do you think the mayor is going to die like these idiots did recently? Or is it a pandemic of the unvaccinated and unmasked?

Ohio Snowflake accepts her HCA : HermanCainAward (reddit.com)
Proud heterosexual, enthusiastic racist, & passionate Trump-lover accepts HCA. : HermanCainAward (reddit.com)
Virginia Snowflake accepts his HCA : HermanCainAward (reddit.com)
Red was a 23-year-old volunteer fireman in KY. He mostly posted memes about beer and fixing cars, but COVID took him in 6 days and now his two kids don't have a father. Get vaccinated. [repost, rule 5 violation fixed] : HermanCainAward (reddit.com)
He didn’t trust his doctor, the vaccine and he didn’t fear death. His daughter is a nurse practitioner but he still refused to listen to facts. She got to announce his passing. : HermanCainAward (reddit.com)
 
EvilGoalie 21 said:
Re the bats: In the natural derivation scenario, the bats would have infected pangolins as an intermediate host at a site other than Wuhan (southern Asia, Africa, etc), leading to a co-infection cycle of bat and pangolin C-viruses within the same animals. Scales from these pangolins, or possibly live animals, were then transported to markets in Wuhan where CoV-2 made the jump. Genome sequence comparisons support the idea there are segments of both pangolin and bat C-virus present in CoV-2, suggesting recombination between the two viral genomes occurred. Such recombination events are hardwired into the the C-virus replicative cycle and are part of the reason this group of viruses can evolve so quickly. Whether these recombination events occurred naturally at a site other than Wuhan or as part of a laboratory study conducted in Wuhan is an unresolved question. But whether the bats are native to Wuhan does not weigh in on it directly. A thing to keep in mind is that, no matter the sequence of events in this particular case, CoV-2 could quite readily have arisen through a relatively well understood natural process. As humans come into new contact with co-evolved natural host-virus relationships around the globe, some virologists are predicting that we will be seeing more of these zoonotic outbreaks in the immediate future.
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I personally think pangolins are being used as a scapegoat. I mean they're a convenient and credible choice. They look like giant armored rats. If the media blamed it on panda cubs, c'mon now, how many people are going to believe that? Now one is going to argue with bats and pangolins. Just saying.
 
EvilGoalie 21 said:
I'm agnostic about the origin. Like I said much earlier, i can see it either way and nothing you post below sorts it out in the way you suggest it does in the end.



The "it" in this case is not the hosts. It's the host with the correct C-virus genome sequence so the phylogeny can be reconstructed. Working phylogenies forward is easy; working them backwards is hard. Care to take a guess as to C-virus genetic diversity in the wild?



Could easily have been a lab leak. After all that's what they do at the Wuhan institute. Explore recombination in zoonotic viruses. Governments are often not forthcoming about all kinds of things. Imagine what we might say if the Chinese wanted to come over and get a "free to roam the halls" pass at Ft. Detrick. A thorough inspection of the viral stocks at Wuhan might shed some light, although the relevant material could have been bleached some time ago.



Yep. Ebola, SARS, MERS, Covid-19. All in the blink of an eye really.



None of what you write here is definitive one way or another, no matter how you dress it up for it's big debating wrap up. Do you think SARS or MERS were also lab leaks? This one may or may not have recombined in the wild. Natural processes can readily promote such outbreaks is the point. More may be forthcoming.
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1. a "Contagion" type situation might have been possible (bat to pig creates new virus, pig gets eaten by lady, virus mutates in the lady, doesn't spread to other pigs) it's just not very likely. More likely is there would have been a reservoir (however small) of the virus (or the immediate precursor virus). They've turned the world up and down looking for this reservoir. It's just not there. Not to mention the fact that it's jumped to so many species now. Not saying it's not possible...just not very damn likely at this point, given that the Chinese government is so desperate to deflect if there were any possibility it would have by now.
2. It's not just the CPC opening up the Wuhan lab for Americans, they stonewalled the international inspectors too. They've also silenced the witnesses and not made them available to the press. Again, the entire behavior is extreme suspicious....smoke, fire.
3. You'll recall Ebola, Sars, and Mers did not spread to a global pandemic. Burned out eventually. COVID has crossed into dogs but (at least so far) they aren't all dropping dead from it either.
4. I'm not dismissing the possibility of a natural fluke. It's just very very very unlikely at this point. The probabilities of natural occurrence v. lab leak v. engineered is just orders of magnitude off right now.
 
watfly said:
I personally think pangolins are being used as a scapegoat. I mean they're a convenient and credible choice. They look like giant armored rats. If the media blamed it on panda cubs, c'mon now, how many people are going to believe that? Now one is going to argue with bats and pangolins. Just saying.
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Awww come on. google up some baby pangolin pictures. They're cute, adorable even. Bats, that an easy one. Ticks, mosquitoes, rats, mice other vermin. Those would be a much easier sell than pangolins. My personal choice for an intermediate host would be badgers.
 
Governor Ron DeSantis ...

"A recession is when your neighbor loses his job, a depression is when you lose yours, a recovery is when Dr. Fauci loses his.”
 
Grace T. said:
is just orders of magnitude off right now.
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That's very quantitative. 100-fold, 1000-fold, what? Can I see the math please? It doesn't really matter. I just find it interesting how you always end up assigning a definitive statement to things that are inheritantly indeterminate or not fundamentally knowable or calculatable with existing information. We all do this to operate in an uncertain world. Going with your gut, here's my best guess, that's all well and good. But not, well it might be this but then again this fuzzy thing plus this fuzzy thing and this other fuzzy thing assessed in the context of other fuzzy things add up to orders of magnitude.
 
EvilGoalie 21 said:
That's very quantitative. 100-fold, 1000-fold, what? Can I see the math please? It doesn't really matter. I just find it interesting how you always end up assigning a definitive statement to things that are inheritantly indeterminate or not fundamentally knowable or calculatable with existing information. We all do this to operate in an uncertain world. Going with your gut, here's my best guess, that's all well and good. But not, well it might be this but then again this fuzzy thing plus this fuzzy thing and this other fuzzy thing assessed in the context of other fuzzy things add up to orders of magnitude.
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i couldn't tell you the exact orders of magnitude. Do the exact numbers really even matter this point? I can only tell you that given the evidence in front of us at the current time, one scenario is possible but would require a lot of variable to line up to make happen and is therefore highly unlikely at this point, and the other is not only possible but has a lot of evidence stacked up at this point. You have a little of one thing, a lot of the other.

It probably comes, BTW, from our respective training. You science types are taught to break it down into numbers...the numbers are all that matters. We lawyer types are taught to assess possible/not possible and which is likelier in our evaluation of evidence. The first year of law school is taught mostly to think critically and to identify problems. The second (where most people take evidence) is how to assess those problems (the third is mostly a waste by way of training but hey the law school has to make money). It's why you probably are advised against hiring a lawyer for a business role....they'll tell you all the problems with an idea instead of how to go forward.
 
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