Bad News Thread

[Desert Hound]

You and I do not agree about the definition of zero. I think of 0.05 and 0.00 as different numbers. You do not.

As usual you are not good at understanding risk.

I believe you are in your 40s and healthy. That age group constitutes just 3% of all covid deaths. In other words unless you are very sick in that age range you have no real risk.

Add to the fact you have your vaccine that is 95% effective and your risk drops even further.

And add in to the fact that a substantial percentage of the population is now vaccinated drops your risk again.

So outside of having no concept of risk, or virtue signaling, or being paranoid, there is no reason for you to run around wearing a mask.

But you are a true believer...and just a few weeks ago told us all that you would likely wear a mask during upcoming flu seasons. And that kind of outlines your mindset.

 

[dad4]

It’s not economics. Vietnam Laos and Cambodia are not on par with Japan or even China. They are nearer to parity with the Philippines. So why did they behave like Japan instead of the phillipines? It’s not masks...the usage there is also very different and in the Philippines was very rigorous. Government policy? Cambodia welcomed in cruise ships to debark and its leadership was as much deniers at first as Brazil. I suppose it could be cultural but I am suspicious of cultural arguments which strip down to the lowest common to try and rationalize. I find the prior coronavirus exposure theory more compelling: it explains why all of Asia and Africa and much of the Mid East (excepting notably isolated Israel) was spared in the first wave, why the second wave could take off in India despite the high seroprevalence and why there have been reports of reinfection in people who did not have serious cases the first time around. Another alternative is genetics but again it would have to hold true from Malaysia to Japan.

What evidence is there for extensive prior exposure? You really think 2 billion people in Asia were exposed to a closely related virus but no one noticed?

Seems likely that such a virus would have made some serious waves in the Asian nursing homes. I mean, if a new cold virus had run all over Japan, their nursing homes would have had a spike in hospitalizations that required a serious investigation.

 

[espola]

At this stage for you, it means nothing.

You are vaccinated. So it is not going to help.

Since most people have been vaccinated, when I see someone wearing one now I just shake my head and think...you are vaccinated, take off the silly mask and live your life.

Have you figured out how vaccines work yet?

 

[Grace T.]

What evidence is there for extensive prior exposure? You really think 2 billion people in Asia were exposed to a closely related virus but no one noticed?

Seems likely that such a virus would have made some serious waves in the Asian nursing homes. I mean, if a new cold virus had run all over Japan, their nursing homes would have had a spike in hospitalizations that required a serious investigation.

There are 6 other coronaviruses. Even excluding the rare ones there are 3 endemic to Asia and coronavirus infections are more prevalent in Asia than in Europe or the Americas. Further see studies posted on this thread re prior T cell immunity.

 

[Grace T.]

There are 6 other coronaviruses. Even excluding the rare ones there are 3 endemic to Asia and coronavirus infections are more prevalent in Asia than in Europe or the Americas. Further see studies posted on this thread re prior T cell immunity.

Ps the funny thing is with Europe (excluding Norway and Finland and some others like Greece) now in decline, most countries of the world (China Australia New Zealand excepted) will wind up in the roughly the same band with east Asia doing a little better and South America doing a little worse but pretty much everywhere else having been hit the same...vaccine rollout making the most material difference.

 

[Grace T.]

Ps the funny thing is with Europe (excluding Norway and Finland and some others like Greece) now in decline, most countries of the world (China Australia New Zealand excepted) will wind up in the roughly the same band with east Asia doing a little better and South America doing a little worse but pretty much everywhere else having been hit the same...vaccine rollout making the most material difference.

I still think BTW if the IFR had been closer to 3%, struck everyone equally and with an R0 of 2 or higher with airborne and surface transmission, we would have gotten a scenario closer to Contagion. At 25%IFR, that movie is not possible...people starve when food production collapses and MREs run out, the power and internet don't stay on, police and fire services (not just garbage) breaks down and there is not shop open (let alone there to reopen) at the end to buy a prom dress.

 

[Bruddah IZ]

No bro. This guy is brainwashed unlike anyone I know. I say this with complete sadness too. I swear he's not the same guy I've known for 33 years. He's my mentor so to speak. Super cool bro too. He was born Jewish. His dad lied to him about being power of attorney of his estate, which was valued at around $2,220,000.00. His dad married his evil step mom when he was just 13. His mom left his dad because he was mean and abusive and she met someone who loved her. She moved to Oregon and opened up a Bed & Breakfast. His old man taught him that money is only a tool. Well, the old man died and guess what Bruddah?

What?

 

[dad4]

It’s not economics. Vietnam Laos and Cambodia are not on par with Japan or even China. They are nearer to parity with the Philippines. So why did they behave like Japan instead of the phillipines? It’s not masks...the usage there is also very different and in the Philippines was very rigorous. Government policy? Cambodia welcomed in cruise ships to debark and its leadership was as much deniers at first as Brazil. I suppose it could be cultural but I am suspicious of cultural arguments which strip down to the lowest common to try and rationalize. I find the prior coronavirus exposure theory more compelling: it explains why all of Asia and Africa and much of the Mid East (excepting notably isolated Israel) was spared in the first wave, why the second wave could take off in India despite the high seroprevalence and why there have been reports of reinfection in people who did not have serious cases the first time around. Another alternative is genetics but again it would have to hold true from Malaysia to Japan.

India? Conventional wisdom explanation for India is that religious festivals make for great super spreader events. You had a sudden change in behavior about a month before all hell broke loose. Right up there with Michigan for proof that behavior matters.

Makes more sense than immunity. It’s hard to argue that in February India had immunity, but that stopped being true in April.

 

[crush]

What?

No power of attorney and old man had $10,000,000 to manage, not $2mill. Don't put your trust in money is what my friend is learning . Dude lied to his own son for reasons only step mother and attorney know of and won't share. My pal was banking on $500,000, so he could quit his job. Instead he got a bag full of lies and worse, everyday he wakes up to work, he's reminded in rush hour traffic, "why?" And "what if."

 

[dad4]

As usual you are not good at understanding risk.

I believe you are in your 40s and healthy. That age group constitutes just 3% of all covid deaths. In other words unless you are very sick in that age range you have no real risk.

Add to the fact you have your vaccine that is 95% effective and your risk drops even further.

And add in to the fact that a substantial percentage of the population is now vaccinated drops your risk again.

So outside of having no concept of risk, or virtue signaling, or being paranoid, there is no reason for you to run around wearing a mask.

But you are a true believer...and just a few weeks ago told us all that you would likely wear a mask during upcoming flu seasons. And that kind of outlines your mindset.

You would understand the flu season masks better if you had more concern for vulnerable people outside your own household. It has very little to do with whether I personally am at risk.

It isn‘t that I have no concept of risk. It is just that my concept of risk includes the risk to other people. Yours does not.

 

[Grace T.]

India? Conventional wisdom explanation for India is that religious festivals make for great super spreader events. You had a sudden change in behavior about a month before all hell broke loose. Right up there with Michigan for proof that behavior matters.

Makes more sense than immunity. It’s hard to argue that in February India had immunity, but that stopped being true in April.

The seroprevalence in India has been measured at 30-50% after the first outbreak...yet this outbreak is worse....either we believe they are nearing 90%, or there has been a breakthrough in prior immunity. We won't know for sure until the issue is studied in several months but there have been reports of reinfections in India, particularly among people who did not get it seriously the first time around. Or it could be that both the PCR and antibody tests are off.

Religious festivals in India are held primarily outdoors. The other culprit cited has been BJP rallies but also held outdoors for the most part. A likelier explanation, which corresponds to the US corn cycle and the outbreak in the Midwest, and the European spring planting cycle, is agriculture. Areas that rely on human fertilizer got hit harder and earlier than those that didn't.

 

[Bruddah IZ]

You would understand the flu season masks better if you had more concern for vulnerable people outside your own household. It has very little to do with whether I personally am at risk.

It isn‘t that I have no concept of risk. It is just that my concept of risk includes the risk to other people. Yours does not.

trying to make a case for the long history, of mask wearing to combat infectious diseases, in the absence of, is where you lose credibility.....again.

 

[Bruddah IZ]

Source: Jim Lo Scalzo/Pool via AP


Sen. Rand Paul (R-KY), a doctor, is likely to keep getting under the skin of the COVID police for refusing to get vaccinated, as he's already contracted the virus. The senator called into John Catsimatidis' radio show on Sunday morning.


The entire clip is worth listening to, but what people are noticing is Paul's following exchange. Castimatidis asked the senator if employees should be "compelled" to have the vaccine. Sen. Paul provided his insight on that:

You know, I think medical decisions in a free society, each individual assumes their own risk, and the thing is, if someone chooses not to be vaccinated, and you are vaccinated, they're not a risk to you, they're taking a risk for themselves. So I think really medical decisions should be private.
In fact we used to all believe that. There's a law called HIPAA that really says we're really not supposed to pry into the affairs, the medical affairs, of our employees, so I think really in the end we need to have a little bit more of a relaxed atmosphere here, because I think people, particularly on the left, they're saying 'oh, I could never go to a restaurant if someone next to me wasn't vaccinated.' It's like well it shouldn't matter to you at all.
If you've been vaccinated you're protected and that's their business if they have a religious or philosophic reason, maybe they just think the pandemic's over and don't want to get vaccinated, or maybe they're like me. I already had it, I mean, should they force people to get vaccinated who had COVID and survived? They would first have to prove that the vaccine is better than being infected. I'm not saying that it's wise to get infected on purpose, but a lot of us got infected whether we wanted to or not, about 100 million of us got infected. And I think that we should have a choice whether we get a vaccine or not because frankly all the studies show that I have just as good of immunity as the people who've been vaccinated.
Now in a year's time if people say 'oh, people that have had it naturally are getting infected a lot more than people who've been vaccinated,' it's--I may change my mind. But until they show me evidence that people that've already had the infection are dying in large numbers, or being hospitalized or getting very sick, I just made my own personal decision that I'm not getting vaccinated because I've already had the disease and I have natural immunity now.
But that should be my--you know in a free country, you would think people would honor, you know, the idea that each individual would get to make their medical decisions and it wouldn't be big brother coming in telling me what I have to do. Are they also gonna tell me I can't have a cheeseburger for lunch? Are they gonna tell me I have to eat carrots only, and cut my calories? All of that is probably good for me, but I don't think Big Brother oughta tell me to do it.

 

[Bruddah IZ]

No power of attorney and old man had $10,000,000 to manage, not $2mill. Don't put your trust in money is what my friend is learning . Dude lied to his own son for reasons only step mother and attorney know of and won't share. My pal was banking on $500,000, so he could quit his job. Instead he got a bag full of lies and worse, everyday he wakes up to work, he's reminded in rush hour traffic, "why?" And "what if."

Yike$!!!! It happens. I have a few friends that went through something similar.

 

[crush]

Source: Jim Lo Scalzo/Pool via AP


Sen. Rand Paul (R-KY), a doctor, is likely to keep getting under the skin of the COVID police for refusing to get vaccinated, as he's already contracted the virus. The senator called into John Catsimatidis' radio show on Sunday morning.


The entire clip is worth listening to, but what people are noticing is Paul's following exchange. Castimatidis asked the senator if employees should be "compelled" to have the vaccine. Sen. Paul provided his insight on that:

Free will is what I call it. I choose to eat super healthy and that makes me healthy by choice. I want cheeseburger and fries but the more I say no the better I look and and feel. My wife loves how I.we.t from triple chin to one chin. 6 pac is next but it's super hard to keep. I told myself if I fast for 5 days I will get to 175 and 30 waist Bruddah man.

 

[Bruddah IZ]

You would understand the flu season masks better if you had more concern for vulnerable people outside your own household. It has very little to do with whether I personally am at risk.

It isn‘t that I have no concept of risk. It is just that my concept of risk includes the risk to other people. Yours does not.

Lumber has become too expensive to build homes. Glass houses are more affordable wouldn't you say?

 

[crush]

Lumber has become too expensive to build homes. Glass houses are more affordable wouldn't you say?

400% increase. Gas has doubled and will soon hit $6 and climbing. In fact, go electric bro.

 

[Bruddah IZ]

Free will is what I call it. I choose to eat super healthy and that makes me healthy by choice. I want cheeseburger and fries but the more I say no the better I look and and feel. My wife loves how I.we.t from triple chin to one chin. 6 pac is next but it's super hard to keep. I told myself if I fast for 5 days I will get to 175 and 30 waist Bruddah man.

American's are always looking for the Silver bullet. They don't realize that they are free to choose and well equipped to mitigate and handle infections of all kinds.

 

[Bruddah IZ]

400% increase. Gas has doubled and will soon hit $6 and climbing. In fact, go electric bro.

Once the virtue signaling crowd figures out that high gas prices make their alt energy plans cost prohibitive, thing$ will change.

 

[dad4]

The seroprevalence in India has been measured at 30-50% after the first outbreak...yet this outbreak is worse....either we believe they are nearing 90%, or there has been a breakthrough in prior immunity. We won't know for sure until the issue is studied in several months but there have been reports of reinfections in India, particularly among people who did not get it seriously the first time around. Or it could be that both the PCR and antibody tests are off.

Religious festivals in India are held primarily outdoors. The other culprit cited has been BJP rallies but also held outdoors for the most part. A likelier explanation, which corresponds to the US corn cycle and the outbreak in the Midwest, and the European spring planting cycle, is agriculture. Areas that rely on human fertilizer got hit harder and earlier than those that didn't.

The festivals are outdoors, but crowded beyond belief. If you place a few million people in the holy section of the Ganges, they will need to rub elbows. Look at the pictures. You get a very large scale version of the Italian soccer stadium outbreak, which was also outdoors.

Add to that the need to travel to get to the festival. The festival is outdoors. The dinners and hotel stays are not.

 

[watfly]

Once the virtue signaling crowd figures out that high gas prices make their alt energy plans cost prohibitive, thing$ will change.

Solar for residences and small businesses is cost effective and efficient, one of the few alt energies that are. Net Energy Metering is what makes it cost effective; however the California Democrats sponsored AB1139 would eliminate NEM, which would eliminate rooftop solar. The Green Movement is just a facade for the left, at the end of the day their allegiance lies with big corporations, in this case the big utility companies.