Bad News Thread

Grace T. said:
o.k. fair. If true, then the messaging should have been wear a mask when in discussions with others, whether walking outside side by side, talking to the grocery store clerk, talking with the doctor, or in the McDonalds drive thru. Not masks are better than vaccines or if everyone wears masks COVID is controlled. This doesn't, BTW, obliviate the need for an indoor mask mandate (since there's still some marginal benefit to reducing overall viral loads indoors and it's hard to police people for when they are talking and when they aren't to others) but my objection has always been more the messaging than the actual policy.
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yes. Now think about how often in a normal day you are face to face with someone. And think about how long it takes people to remember minor tasks, like putting on a mask. Mask on/mask off 50 times a day would not have been the right message, because people can’t follow that kind of message.

This is how you get to “mask whenever indoors or in a crowded outdoor environment.”. It covers the times you are face to face with someone. It also gets you the 10% or so filtration effect, which is a definite nice to have.

I can’t believe you flipped it to the point where I need to argue the “people are social” and “people are fallible” angles.
 
dad4 said:
yes. Now think about how often in a normal day you are face to face with someone. And think about how long it takes people to remember minor tasks, like putting on a mask. Mask on/mask off 50 times a day would not have been the right message, because people can’t follow that kind of message.

This is how you get to “mask whenever indoors or in a crowded outdoor environment.”. It covers the times you are face to face with someone. It also gets you the 10% or so filtration effect, which is a definite nice to have.

I can’t believe you flipped it to the point where I need to argue the “people are social” and “people are fallible” angles.
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Again, you misunderstand the point. My problem isn't the rule. It's why I agree this doesn't undermine the argument for an indoor mask mandate. My problem is with the oversell on masks (which was done, in the end it will be shown, to prevent the essential workers from going into a panic while you and I got to sit in front of zoom and have weekly take out). Treat people like adults....tell em why the mask helps (particularly in direct face to face conversation)....don't tell them stuff like masks are better than vaccines, or it's o.k. to fly if masked, or masks will control the outbreak. That way, I know I don't need to wear a mask when walking the dog or if my 5 year old is running around the park, but if I'm going to be sitting with a friend in the park less than 6 feet away even if outdoors I might want to wear one, and I'll definitely want to make sure it's on properly when talking to the grocery store clerk at checkout.
 
Grace T. said:
o.k. fair. If true, then the messaging should have been wear a mask when in discussions with others, whether walking outside side by side, talking to the grocery store clerk, talking with the doctor, or in the McDonalds drive thru. Not masks are better than vaccines or if everyone wears masks COVID is controlled. This doesn't, BTW, obliviate the need for an indoor mask mandate (since there's still some marginal benefit to reducing overall viral loads indoors and it's hard to police people for when they are talking and when they aren't to others) but my objection has always been more the messaging than the actual policy.
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"masks are better than vaccines or if everyone wears masks COVID is controlled"

Strawmen.
 
Grace T. said:
Again, you misunderstand the point. My problem isn't the rule. It's why I agree this doesn't undermine the argument for an indoor mask mandate. My problem is with the oversell on masks (which was done, in the end it will be shown, to prevent the essential workers from going into a panic while you and I got to sit in front of zoom and have weekly take out). Treat people like adults....tell em why the mask helps (particularly in direct face to face conversation)....don't tell them stuff like masks are better than vaccines, or it's o.k. to fly if masked, or masks will control the outbreak. That way, I know I don't need to wear a mask when walking the dog or if my 5 year old is running around the park, but if I'm going to be sitting with a friend in the park less than 6 feet away even if outdoors I might want to wear one, and I'll definitely want to make sure it's on properly when talking to the grocery store clerk at checkout.
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They didn’t know why the masks help. Neither did you. Neither did I. None of that was widely accepted in April 2020. People still thought it was droplets. We thought you needed to trap them, or give them time to fall onto the floor.

It was purely environmental correlation at the start, with a healthy dose of s.w.a.g.. It just seemed to be helping. The elderly Chinese ladies thought the mask helped because it was a filter. They were miles ahead of the rest of us, but even they had the link wrong.
 
dad4 said:
They didn’t know why the masks help. Neither did you. Neither did I. None of that was widely accepted in April 2020. People still thought it was droplets. We thought you needed to trap them, or give them time to fall onto the floor.

It was purely environmental correlation at the start, with a healthy dose of s.w.a.g.. It just seemed to be helping. The elderly Chinese ladies thought the mask helped because it was a filter. They were miles ahead of the rest of us, but even they had the link wrong.
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The Spanish study on this IIRC was published in May of 2020. It was why Spain didn't approve gaiters and bandanas. Many of us called them out on the outdoor mandates yet they still went ahead and did that anyways. Aerosolization began to be discussed around the same time period of early summer. Several of us laughed at the claim that universal masking could control the thing. They just didn't want to listen. It undermined the narrative of keeping the essential workers safe.
 
Grace T. said:
No, examples of oversell.
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I don’t remember the main message being “ masks alone = containment. “

It was always “ mask and distance = flatten the curve “ as far back as I can remember.

I’m with espola on this. “masks = containment “ is a strawman from grace.

You can blame me for thinking we can contain it with “ masks + distance + outside + close high risk areas + enforcement “. But there is a lot more in that plan than just masks.
 
Grace T. said:
The Spanish study on this IIRC was published in May of 2020. It was why Spain didn't approve gaiters and bandanas. Many of us called them out on the outdoor mandates yet they still went ahead and did that anyways. Aerosolization began to be discussed around the same time period of early summer. Several of us laughed at the claim that universal masking could control the thing. They just didn't want to listen. It undermined the narrative of keeping the essential workers safe.
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Grace, based on current understanding, you got masks totally wrong.

Based on what is known today, masks do “help much”. They do a great job of blocking person A’s respiratory plume from reaching person B. Your comments last May on masks were just as bad as the CDC lack of comments on being outdoors. And the correction was just as slow, and just as half hearted.

My expectation for the CDC is higher, but don’t waste time patting yourself on the back here.
 
dad4 said:
Grace, based on current understanding, you got masks totally wrong.

Based on what is known today, masks do “help much”. They do a great job of blocking person A’s respiratory plume from reaching person B. Your comments last May on masks were just as bad as the CDC lack of comments on being outdoors. And the correction was just as slow, and just as half hearted.

My expectation for the CDC is higher, but don’t waste time patting yourself on the back here.
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That funny. Everywhere in the world mask mandates have failed. How’s that mask mandate going in India? Speaking of patting on the back what happened in the czech republic? How it work out in Los Angeles? And Sweden without their mask mandate? Again no where in the world, no matter how much you wish for it, does it make a substantial difference

Very easy to figure out why. On a micro level on the airplane it’s going to help prevent the person 12 rows out from catching it. That additional help though is only marginal utility because being so far away even on a 6 hour flight he’s only rolling a couple die. The person sick right next to you though is forcing you to take several rolls every hour so eventually the n95 will even fail. The end result is the mask was helpful for the people 12 rows away but the overall reduction of cases may be only a handful producing a less robust macro result

sorry dad4. Many of said masks weren’t a panacea while you embraced praying to them
 
dad4 said:
I don’t remember the main message being “ masks alone = containment. “

It was always “ mask and distance = flatten the curve “ as far back as I can remember.

I’m with espola on this. “masks = containment “ is a strawman from grace.

You can blame me for thinking we can contain it with “ masks + distance + outside + close high risk areas + enforcement “. But there is a lot more in that plan than just masks.
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The actual shaping of a plan. So tell us how you would have done it
 
dad4 said:
I don’t remember the main message being “ masks alone = containment. “

It was always “ mask and distance = flatten the curve “ as far back as I can remember.

I’m with espola on this. “masks = containment “ is a strawman from grace.

You can blame me for thinking we can contain it with “ masks + distance + outside + close high risk areas + enforcement “. But there is a lot more in that plan than just masks.
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The argument here has been about masks and what they can do...the answer is by themselves very little. Now you are goalpost moving and saying it’s distance too. Both I and k&s have said distancing is always preferable...the problem is you can’t always have distancing because humans are social animals and essential workers must work.
 
Interesting small bump in us vaccination rates that were otherwise headed to the floor? New confidence in vaccines from approval of 12 year olds, camp vaccinations, shift to walkins v appointments in blue states?
 
Grace T. said:
That funny. Everywhere in the world mask mandates have failed. How’s that mask mandate going in India? Speaking of patting on the back what happened in the czech republic? How it work out in Los Angeles? And Sweden without their mask mandate? Again no where in the world, no matter how much you wish for it, does it make a substantial difference

Very easy to figure out why. On a micro level on the airplane it’s going to help prevent the person 12 rows out from catching it. That additional help though is only marginal utility because being so far away even on a 6 hour flight he’s only rolling a couple die. The person sick right next to you though is forcing you to take several rolls every hour so eventually the n95 will even fail. The end result is the mask was helpful for the people 12 rows away but the overall reduction of cases may be only a handful producing a less robust macro result

sorry dad4. Many of said masks weren’t a panacea while you embraced praying to them
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Back to normal, I see. If you find out you were wrong, it must be time to go on the attack. :rolleyes:
 
Over lunch I just found out our favorite sushi place had closed. Ran into the manager cleaning out his stuff. Similar story to my favorite breakfast place: low take out demand and just fell too far behind on bills. The kicker for them, though, was the recent increases in ingredient and labor costs. While long term inflation might have helped out with the fixed rent for a small window, the cost increases just sank them.
 
dad4 said:
The goal, as always, is sustained R<1.

Those goalposts aren't moving. They're collecting pigeon poop while you ignore them.
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Which you've have never set out the dad plan on how that's possible. For the 12th or 14th or something like that time, you are invited to lay it all out for us, with the benefit of hindsight. You seem to have an outline now. Let's here how this played out in the dad4 alternate universe where everyone listened to you.
 
Morning Consult's recent Return to Normal poll returned some interesting results: the vaccinated are considerably less likely to feel comfortable doing basic human things than the unvaccinated.

To be sure, the vaccinated are already a self-selected group of risk-averse people, but this is still a ridiculous result. Why did you get the vaccine if you didn't think it made it safe for you to go to the movies, for heaven's sake?

The results:
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On a related note, Professor Don Boudreaux of George Mason University, on his Cafe Hayek blog, shares this email from a reader:

Experience of one of my daughters with her long time friend (LTF) this weekend, which is very disturbing.

We own a second house in Aiken, South Carolina. This daughter is an equestrian. SC is now fully open and Aiken lifted all mask mandates just this past week (thank God). With college classes over, my daughter and her long time friend made a weekend trip there. Sounds like fun, right?

My daughter made dinner reservations, and another friend invited them to see live music outside. It is important to note that my daughters has one shot of the vaccine, and that her LTF not only had COVID, but is fully vaccinated, and the friend they are meeting had COVID – and they are all under 25, so already not at great risk. They are about to enter the restaurant when LTF has a panic attack, starts crying, and declares that she cannot enter the restaurant because people are dining inside. LTF then declares that she also cannot go to the music event because there will be crowds there. LTF has become so terrified of other human beings that, despite being immunized, she cannot fathom living life normally. LTF is convinced that all the non-mask wearing people are going to infect her, and despite the fact that she, her parents, and her grandparents are all vaccinated, she is going to carry the illness to them and kill them. This is mental illness. This is what we’ve done to our young people. It is heartbreaking.
 
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