Bad News Thread

Grace T. said:
It’s not npi but mobility. You see the same tail in Sweden and Florida for instance.

but in any case this is also where you divorce from reality into math world. If caseskeep slowing they must eventually approach but not reach zero til you get down to one patient or so per week. This runs contrary to the notion that it’s endemic. Reason? You can’t lock up the population in perpetuity and as long as people are circulating and the thing is endemic (meaning there is no herd immunity even at 95% because the thing is constantly mutating) you are always going to see that effect regardless of npis.
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Not all mobility drives up cases. More people are going out now. But, if they go out to the local rose garden, it doesn’t drive up cases. It is mobility to indoor locations that matters.

At that point, you’re just playing with semantics. Call it NPI for closing/avoiding the indoor location. Or call it mobility, for going to the indoor location. It’s the same thing.

I do not find the hand-waving assertions about “endemic” to be convincing. There is a lot of ground between 750 deaths per day and “not quite eradicated”. You are using the word “endemic” to make the two sound equal, despite the fact that they are not.
 
@dad4 Do you need me to tell you what this is really all about? Where are all the missing kids dad? Where are they? Where is Mr Hanx? Why is Billy getting a divorce? Why did Billy fly around with Jeffrey? Everything will be revealed soon dad.
 
Desert Hound said:
Ummm....NO!

Fauci says masks could become ‘seasonal’ wear after pandemic - Washington Examiner

Dr. Anthony Fauci said wearing face masks could become a “seasonal” norm following the pandemic. “It is conceivable that as we go on, a year or two or more from now, that during certain seasonal periods when you have respiratory-borne viruses like the flu, people might actually elect to wear...
www.washingtonexaminer.com www.washingtonexaminer.com
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Why not? Fake vaccines require the use of mask that create stronger and more resistant virus's that are more transmissible than the last virus. Just sayin'.
 
It's about the kids. Stop talking about this stupid virus. This was planned. The kids need our help. Stop wasting time on stupid arguments and foolish takes from fools. What a waste of time. My advice is go find a tent and stay in it for 24 hours and get yourself ready to deal with all the truth that will be coming out in movie form for all of us to watch. Crimes against humanity. It's always been about the kids.
 
Grace T. said:
Every place in the world that went through a winter or spring wave has this tail to their curve where cases remain plateaued. Spain Italy Czech Republic Texas California Hawaii South Korea. It’s everywhere. More than npi it’s probably mobility (because again it’s impossible for people to lock themselves up a year plus with once weekly takeout unless you are dad4).

even last summer no one went to zero so as long as there are some people who aren’t immune the thing will keep circulating until the threshold (which from India we know now is more than 75%) is reached, if ever (since the thought among many experts is the thing is endemic).
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Are there any places in the world which did not relax their NPI once they were past peak? (or, as in Europe last summer, once they thought they were past peak.)

It seems you are saying that everywhere had a peak, then fast decline, then relax, then plateau/slow decline. This is entirely consistent with the claim that some part of NPI was working.

I am not arguing that the economic cost of NPI is worth paying when we have a vaccination rate over 50%. I am just saying that the plateau/decline in rate of improvement is evidence that the NPI were effective.

Estimating the economic and social cost of NPI is a completely different question.
 
crush said:
@dad4 Do you need me to tell you what this is really all about? Where are all the missing kids dad? Where are they? Where is Mr Hanx? Why is Billy getting a divorce? Why did Billy fly around with Jeffrey? Everything will be revealed soon dad.
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I really have no interest in finding out which billionaires can’t keep their pants zipped.

Bill and Melinda have done the world a huge service with their philanthropy. Their efforts on malaria have already saved millions of lives. Less importantly, we got through covid with a lot less pain, in part because of the foundational vaccine research they have supported over the past 25 years.

I wish them both well in their separate futures.
 
dad4 said:
Are there any places in the world which did not relax their NPI once they were past peak? (or, as in Europe last summer, once they thought they were past peak.)

It seems you are saying that everywhere had a peak, then fast decline, then relax, then plateau/slow decline. This is entirely consistent with the claim that some part of NPI was working.

I am not arguing that the economic cost of NPI is worth paying when we have a vaccination rate over 50%. I am just saying that the plateau/decline in rate of improvement is evidence that the NPI were effective.

Estimating the economic and social cost of NPI is a completely different question.
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Again, this is about the killing and torture of kids and saving them and our country from pure evil and I mean the purest evil their is, which we all know is Diablo, or Satan or Lucifer and a 1/3 of the Angels. This is bigger than us. Like I said a long time ago, this is about a choice. Will you choose the Light or the Darkness. This is not about some demic dad. That is a 100% distraction so you can focus on divison and hate and not love and trust. Good will win and evil will be destroyed someday. Look how much time you have wasted on false math dude. Go out and help the kids. I just got back from helping people and kids for 6 days and I might have found a new career to boot :)
 
dad4 said:
I really have no interest in finding out which billionaires can’t keep their pants zipped.

Bill and Melinda have done the world a huge service with their philanthropy. Their efforts on malaria have already saved millions of lives. Less importantly, we got through covid with a lot less pain, in part because of the foundational vaccine research they have supported over the past 25 years.

I wish them both well in their separate futures.
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Yes I know you dont give a fuck if adult male billionaires unzip their pants for all the ___________________________________. Do you think Billy was with Jeffrey and these were consenting adult models they were playing with? Oh please, WTFU dad. What kind of dad are you anyways? I will send you some videos dad. These are super intense and for your eyes only.
 
dad4 said:
Less importantly, we got through covid with a lot less pain, in part because of the foundational vaccine research they have supported over the past 25 years.
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You know what else happened in the last 25 years? Probably not. Which is why you made the clueless statement above.
 
dad4 said:
Not all mobility drives up cases. More people are going out now. But, if they go out to the local rose garden, it doesn’t drive up cases. It is mobility to indoor locations that matters.

At that point, you’re just playing with semantics. Call it NPI for closing/avoiding the indoor location. Or call it mobility, for going to the indoor location. It’s the same thing.

I do not find the hand-waving assertions about “endemic” to be convincing. There is a lot of ground between 750 deaths per day and “not quite eradicated”. You are using the word “endemic” to make the two sound equal, despite the fact that they are not.
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And you are making a basic math mistake that a reduction of cases ever gets to zero in math world....It just keeps halving (or whatever reduction %)

1. different places started with different npis and then relaxed which got the same result irrespective of their baselines...what then does that say about npis?
2. Mobility and npis are not the same thing. Mobility depends on the extent people freak out and perceive a danger. Npis can help stoke or relax it but short of australia arresting people leaving their homes can’t control it 1 to 1
3. If I relax outside and go for a stroll with my friend who is sick for a half hour even if it’s outside I’m still going to get sick. Being outside is no more of a silver bullet than masks are.
 
Grace T. said:
And you are making a basic math mistake that a reduction of cases ever gets to zero in math world....It just keeps halving (or whatever reduction %)

1. different places started with different npis and then relaxed which got the same result irrespective of their baselines...what then does that say about npis?
2. Mobility and npis are not the same thing. Mobility depends on the extent people freak out and perceive a danger. Npis can help stoke or relax it but short of australia arresting people leaving their homes can’t control it 1 to 1
3. If I relax outside and go for a stroll with my friend who is sick for a half hour even if it’s outside I’m still going to get sick. Being outside is no more of a silver bullet than masks are.
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Cases fall to the point that the assumptions underlying the model become invalid.

You're throwing around words because you can't follow the math. I can. And the math cares about whether people eat at home, but not why. It could be a county health order, a lack of spending money, or just general fear. If they cause the same behavior change, all have exactly the same effect on transmission.

3- enjoy your walk outside with your sick friend. With light masks and 6 feet
 
watfly said:
It isn't a silver bullet, but I trust being outside without a mask way more than being indoors with a mask. I don't have any data to support it, but moving everything outside was my family's, and the majority of our friends, primary tactic against Covid. It worked flawlessly.
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Agree but I doubt you hung around with outside 3rd parties that were showing symptoms.
 
dad4 said:
Cases fall to the point that the assumptions underlying the model become invalid.

You're throwing around words because you can't follow the math. I can. And the math cares about whether people eat at home, but not why. It could be a county health order, a lack of spending money, or just general fear. If they cause the same behavior change, all have exactly the same effect on transmission.

3- enjoy your walk outside with your sick friend. With light masks and 6 feet
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You just conceded then a health order is unnecessary so long as the population is sufficiently fearful. Fear is not an NPI. It's people making decisions over what they want to do with their lives.

It's funny that in math world friends walk 6 feet apart. Does one walk in front and the other in back? On either side of the sidewalk making way when someone walks in the opposite direction? Just another example of how divorced from reality your math world is. At least you concede that a certain point the math behind the model falls apart...progress. What does the math say about a Farr curve?
 
Veterans group slams NYC decision to deny permit for Memorial Day march while allowing Cannabis Parade
Veterans and their attorney point to a 'sickening' double standard
 
Grace T. said:
You just conceded then a health order is unnecessary so long as the population is sufficiently fearful. Fear is not an NPI. It's people making decisions over what they want to do with their lives.

It's funny that in math world friends walk 6 feet apart. Does one walk in front and the other in back? On either side of the sidewalk making way when someone walks in the opposite direction? Just another example of how divorced from reality your math world is. At least you concede that a certain point the math behind the model falls apart...progress. What does the math say about a Farr curve?
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The Farr curve is the first derivative of a sigmoid. AKA the solution to a logistics equation. It’s that shape you can’t get away from.

I like to hike. 6 feet is kind of close for hiking, even before covid. One person 10 feet behind the other is more common. Less space is needed when you pass opposing traffic, because time of exposure is so short. (All of which you already knew. Why ask?)

A health order closing restaurants is irrelevant if no one wants to eat out. I would have thought that was pretty obvious.

I don’t really care which word you use. You can call it NPI. You can call it changes to mobility. You can call it “Dad4’s evil authoritarian control system”. Semantics is boring. The interesting fact is that whatever we were doing in January and February was effective.
 
dad4 said:
Cases fall to the point that the assumptions underlying the model become invalid.

You're throwing around words because you can't follow the math. I can. And the math cares about whether people eat at home, but not why. It could be a county health order, a lack of spending money, or just general fear. If they cause the same behavior change, all have exactly the same effect on transmission.

3- enjoy your walk outside with your sick friend. With light masks and 6 feet
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You throw around the math because you don't want to compare present NPI's to a long history of relatively non-interventionist NPI's during past respiratory pandemics.
 
dad4 said:
The Farr curve is the first derivative of a sigmoid. AKA the solution to a logistics equation. It’s that shape you can’t get away from.

I like to hike. 6 feet is kind of close for hiking, even before covid. One person 10 feet behind the other is more common. Less space is needed when you pass opposing traffic, because time of exposure is so short. (All of which you already knew. Why ask?)

A health order closing restaurants is irrelevant if no one wants to eat out. I would have thought that was pretty obvious.

I don’t really care which word you use. You can call it NPI. You can call it changes to mobility. You can call it “Dad4’s evil authoritarian control system”. Semantics is boring. The interesting fact is that whatever we were doing in January and February was effective.
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Nonsense
 
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