Let Them Play CA

[Desert Hound]

I do believe, however, if we had a different federal administration that could've worked more collaboratively with the states on cohesive communication and policy we all would've collectively come out of this better. We will never know the answer to that.

I think in a sense we do know. Just go look at the other major Euro countries. France, Germany, UK, Italy, Spain, Belgium and Netherlands. Collectively they have roughly the same population as the US.

US has 454k deaths so far
Those Euro countries have 420k deaths

We were told by the press for months that the Euro countries got it right. Their governments worked with local areas and as such did a better job than the US.

The reality is they have done no better vs the US.

We are dealing with a virus that spreads easily. Gov policy won't change that fact. People have to work to survive. So they will be around people. People are social animals and will congregate despite various gov restrictions, etc.

 

[Grace T.]

I think we agree, but based on different reasoning. It's not that the lockdown's and draconian rules didn't work...it's that not enough people followed the rules. Again, as @Grace T. rightfully pointed out many moons ago, we're not China. The rules were never enforceable. I do believe, however, if we had a different federal administration that could've worked more collaboratively with the states on cohesive communication and policy we all would've collectively come out of this better. We will never know the answer to that.

We know that hard lockdowns work. Australia and New Zealand at least proved that. It required extreme heavy handed steps of questionable Constitutionality (including on the left sealing the border....Biden has already halted work on the wall, tried to cease deportations, and is working on an EO that will revive asylum protocols....also on the left it would have required a brutal suppression of the BLM protests in arguable violation of the First Amendment). The other problem is it would have required those heavy handed steps to go on for more than a year...in the middle of an election (or suspension of that election).

People are naturally socially. For high es socializing is like air and water and food...it's a psychological need. While the Trump administration was uniquely bad, I don't think things would have worked out better with a D admin (or even a Romney 2nd term). The problem is states like Florida wanted to do what they wanted to do, and states like NY and CA wanted to do what they wanted. No one would ever be able to corral those 2 points of view. The communication might have been better, but only the margins....pick any other country in Europe and you'd see the results....best case we are Germany instead.

 

[Grace T.]

I still don’t see infectious disease as a good place for individualism.

When we open things up, each person chooses whether to receive the benefits. But we all get the costs, whether we like it or not.

When restaurants opened up, cases went up. Whether you went out for dinner or not, you had a higher risk. The whole group gets the higher risk.

So we have to make our decisions as a group, based on the overall costs and benefits to everyone. It is not just me doing what is right for me.

That’s why I feel it is important to get the rules right. Those rules will limit our choices, just like any other rules.

The problem is we will never agree because 1/3 of us are scared to death and want to hide under the bed forever. 1/3 of us want the vast majority of restrictions to go away either now or at least when the old folks are vaccinated.

The other problem is that there isn't an objectively "right" answer here. There's only trade offs...winners and losers. Lock them up and you are going to cause enormous damage to the high es which they'll carry around for years, suicides, and ODs. Open it all up and you kill all the grandmas.

 

[Anon9]

I think in a sense we do know. Just go look at the other major Euro countries. France, Germany, UK, Italy, Spain, Belgium and Netherlands. Collectively they have roughly the same population as the US.

US has 454k deaths so far
Those Euro countries have 420k deaths

We were told by the press for months that the Euro countries got it right. Their governments worked with local areas and as such did a better job than the US.

The reality is they have done no better vs the US.

We are dealing with a virus that spreads easily. Gov policy won't change that fact. People have to work to survive. So they will be around people. People are social animals and will congregate despite various gov restrictions, etc.

Case numbers are not a good indicator of actual cases. Some states test more than others, and people in some states don't care to get tested. Deaths is more of an accurate indicator of total actual cases.

 

[dad4]

Hound, you’re about 8 months out of date with the claim that Europe did it right.

Europe was doing it right, and then they opened up the bars, restaurants, and everything else. Once they did that, they got bad results, too.

Next you are going to give us a graph of North Dakota that only includes January.

If you are going to contribute, please try to contribute something useful. Not just something that says what you want to hear.

 

[watfly]

I still don’t see infectious disease as a good place for individualism.

Particularly individualism that is based on fear and emotion and not evidence.

 

[Grace T.]

Particularly individualism that is based on fear and emotion and not evidence.

As I've said before, it goes a long way to explaining the "n" in his personality profile for what is otherwise a data guy.

All these choices are individualism. It's just some people's individualism v. other people's individualism. Collective action is impossible without either consensus or having somebody from the top down cram it down.

 

[LASTMAN14]

I’ve been back in the classroom teaching since Nov 4. My DD’s have both been in class as well. I’m lucky to be in a district and local union chapter that both supported returning (85% of our teachers voted to return) and worked together to make it happen. The parent community largely wanted back too. 75% of our families wanted to come back and 25% remain in distance learning by choice.
The district keeps stats on student and teacher cases. About .03% of staff/students are testing positive each week. This almost exactly matches the positives for the county as a whole. Cases in our county have been falling very very fast since the holidays. Schools being open do not seem to accelerate transmission based on our data.

Prior to the start of the school year parents in my district were given a choice to choose if they wanted distance learning or return to on site instruction. More than 75% preferred distance learning over returning. This of course had to do with the rise in cases at the time. A questionnaire was put out earlier in the summer on their preference which was much different than.

 

[dad4]

Particularly individualism that is based on fear and emotion and not evidence.

What do you think our individualism is based on? Vulcan logic? Of course it is emotion.

Not sure why you think the anti-mask and pro-restaurant crowd is acting based on evidence, though. Evidence on those is pretty solidly pro-mask and anti-restaurant.

As I've said before, it goes a long way to explaining the "n" in his personality profile for what is otherwise a data guy.

All these choices are individualism. It's just some people's individualism v. other people's individualism. Collective action is impossible without either consensus or having somebody from the top down cram it down.

True enough.

Frustrating to watch other places handle this with a community spirit, while we still are still arguing about whether masks work.*

By now, we should be handing out N95 masks like candy. It would cost us less than a billion a week. Much cheaper than sending checks to everyone, and far more effective.

*- yes, they work. Some work better than others.

 

[Grace T.]

What do you think our individualism is based on? Vulcan logic? Of course it is emotion.

Not sure why you think the anti-mask and pro-restaurant crowd is acting based on evidence, though. Evidence on those is pretty solidly pro-mask and anti-restaurant.


True enough.

Frustrating to watch other places handle this with a community spirit, while we still are still arguing about whether masks work.*

By now, we should be handing out N95 masks like candy. It would cost us less than a billion a week. Much cheaper than sending checks to everyone, and far more effective.

*- yes, they work. Some work better than others.

Even in Europe that community spirit is going to be tested. Even in Germany it has been tested with protests and violence (in the low countries their governments going so far as to state they are on the brink of civil war). With our political divisions, next to impossible.

The problem on the anti-lockdowner side is that it would have required compromise on that side of the aisle too away from the proposition that it's ever going to be 100% safe. Meeting in the middle would have, for this country, ended up somewhere along the lines of Virginia (which given their vaccine rollout ain't going so hot). It would also have required a repudiation of the BLM protests, which the left leaning health care experts weren't prepared to do, since that's the one event which shattered the "we're all in this together" consensus, particularly after the pro-lockdowners were critical of the lockdown protests.

 

[Soccerfan2]

Prior to the start of the school year parents in my district were given a choice to choose if they wanted distance learning or return to on site instruction. More than 75% preferred distance learning over returning. This of course had to do with the rise in cases at the time. A questionnaire was put out earlier in the summer on their preference which was much different than.

So crazy how different communities have such vastly different preferences.

 

[Grace T.]

So crazy how different communities have such vastly different preferences.

A survey done in my own town had the same swing from summer-winter. The ends are pretty much firm in either panic mode or devil-may-care mode. It's that middle portion which swings depending on the outlook at any particular time, and the drum beat in the media.

 

[Desert Hound]

Hound, you’re about 8 months out of date with the claim that Europe did it right.

Europe was doing it right, and then they opened up the bars, restaurants, and everything else. Once they did that, they got bad results, too.

Next you are going to give us a graph of North Dakota that only includes January.

If you are going to contribute, please try to contribute something useful. Not just something that says what you want to hear.

Actually not 8 months behind per say. Keep up

I was responding to someone who thought we could have done it better. I pointed out Europe as what was pointed out before as doing it right, and basically our near peers so to speak today.

As a nation be it T or a D in charge when this happened, I am pretty sure we would have about as many deaths as we do today either way.

By the way I keep asking you for your response regarding CA vs TX/FL. You keep ignoring that for some reason. You know the states that have kids in school and playing sports vs the state that doesn't? And yet all 3 are infection wise and deaths wise very similar.

 

[Kicker4Life]

What do you think our individualism is based on? Vulcan logic? Of course it is emotion.

Unfortunately, that emotion which drives the individualism is created and driven by the media....

 

[watfly]

What do you think our individualism is based on? Vulcan logic? Of course it is emotion.

Not sure why you think the anti-mask and pro-restaurant crowd is acting based on evidence, though. Evidence on those is pretty solidly pro-mask and anti-restaurant.

I was speaking of schools. Never been anti-mask, mask skeptical a little bit but that's it. As far as restaurants go, there is no evidence to suggest that outdoor dining is unsafe. The jury is still out on indoor dining. It's seems early on that it was more of a factor for infections, but not nearly as much lately. Hence why the LA and SD judges ruled in favor of restaurants based on the evidence.

Again you can't look at every issue through a covid only lens.

 

[watfly]

BTW if my kids could go to school and play sports I'd be willing to wear a N95 mask in public.

 

[LASTMAN14]

So crazy how different communities have such vastly different preferences.

As do school districts. Ours has wanted to go back, but acquiesce to LA County. They have done what they can to start up. We have some of the most impacted students on campus in small cohorts, but that's it.

 

[dad4]

Actually not 8 months behind per say. Keep up

I was responding to someone who thought we could have done it better. I pointed out Europe as what was pointed out before as doing it right, and basically our near peers so to speak today.

As a nation be it T or a D in charge when this happened, I am pretty sure we would have about as many deaths as we do today either way.

By the way I keep asking you for your response regarding CA vs TX/FL. You keep ignoring that for some reason. You know the states that have kids in school and playing sports vs the state that doesn't? And yet all 3 are infection wise and deaths wise very similar.

I gave my response to TX/CA/FL. My response is that the deaths rates were similar for those three, but AZ really screwed up royally.

If you want to understand it, you have to look beyond those three states. Start asking why Washington, Oregon, and Jefferson look great, NorCal looks mediocre, and SoCal was a mess. Even though Jefferson, NorCal, and SoCal all have exactly the same state policies.

It really looks like WA, OR, and Jefferson each have a working system. SoCal, TX, Norcal, and FL all made some major mistakes. But the TX/FL mistakes are quite different from the SoCal/Norcal mistakes.

And, as before, the AZ response was horrible. No masks and open restaurants? No wonder they have had so many deaths.

 

[Desert Hound]

I gave my response to TX/CA/FL. My response is that the deaths rates were similar for those three, but AZ really screwed up royally.

If you want to understand it, you have to look beyond those three states. Start asking why Washington, Oregon, and Jefferson look great, NorCal looks mediocre, and SoCal was a mess. Even though Jefferson, NorCal, and SoCal all have exactly the same state policies.

It really looks like WA, OR, and Jefferson each have a working system. SoCal, TX, Norcal, and FL all made some major mistakes. But the TX/FL mistakes are quite different from the SoCal/Norcal mistakes.

And, as before, the AZ response was horrible. No masks and open restaurants? No wonder they have had so many deaths.

Would you agree that CA might as well have done what TX/FL did? Your kid(s) would be in school full time. They would be playing ball. Businesses and individuals would financially be in much better shape, etc.

All 3 arrived at the same outcome, yet are doing very different things.

 

[happy9]

My teens have been back at HS full time since late aug/beginning of September. They run classes like they did last year. So lots of different contacts. There hasn't been any issues.

The same has been seen in other places around the US and the world where they are back in school. It isn't an issue.

Same here.

 

[dad4]

Would you agree that CA might as well have done what TX/FL did? Your kid(s) would be in school full time. They would be playing ball. Businesses and individuals would financially be in much better shape, etc.

All 3 arrived at the same outcome, yet are doing very different things.

No, I would not agree.

Part of CA’s mistake is 40 years of overly restrictive housing policy. We created these ghettos with 3 families per apartment, and then are surprised when those areas prove vulnerable to disease.

Now, could we have prevented it by copying TX or FL policies towards residential construction? Absolutely.

That doesn’t mean I think it would be smart to live in our ghettos, ditch the masks, and open up restaurants. That would make it even worse. We’d just copy the TX/FL mistake, without ever fixing the CA mistake.