Why keep arguing, NO FALL SOCCER!
- Thread starter Anon9
- Start date
A pic on the 10 frwy coming back from Cactus Cup. It should be AZ, NV, UT, CO and TX coming here to play. Nope, big caravans are now being formed to drive East on the 10 frwy. Why? Because were not allowed to play sports in Socal.
99 Cent Store is now running a youth soccer club?
Traffic will be insane coming back from the Cactus Cup on the 20th. Plus all the river rafters and jet skiers will be coming back from, Have A Sue, and of course, all the young people coming back from Palm Springs. All that revenue going to AZ and not California. I wonder what kind of business swing that is?
Palm Springs is in AZ? Is that where 99 Cent FC is based?
I was talking traffic at the 10/60. Palm Springs is in California last I check. Everyone meets up at the 10/60 mark.
Desert Hound
DA
I will type this really slow to help everyone understand.
Political donations and tax revenue. Add those 2 together and presto, Disneyland is safe to open to the crowds. Unfortunately the same science says youth soccer is not.
Desert Hound
DA
This is for @dad4 and others. Science and data. GraceT posted about this in the WSJ earlier.
TrendMacro, my analytics firm, tallied the cumulative number of reported cases of Covid-19 in each state and the District of Columbia as a percentage of population, based on data from state and local health departments aggregated by the Covid Tracking Project. We then compared that with the timing and intensity of the lockdown in each jurisdiction. That is measured not by the mandates put in place by government officials, but rather by observing what people in each jurisdiction actually did, along with their baseline behavior before the lockdowns. This is captured in highly detailed anonymized cellphone tracking data provided by Google and others and tabulated by the University of Maryland’s Transportation Institute into a “Social Distancing Index.”
Measuring from the start of the year to each state’s point of maximum lockdown—which range from April 5 to April 18—it turns out that lockdowns correlated with a greater spread of the virus. States with longer, stricter lockdowns also had larger Covid outbreaks. The five places with the harshest lockdowns—the District of Columbia, New York, Michigan, New Jersey and Massachusetts—had the heaviest caseloads.
Confirming the first experiment, there was a tendency (though fairly weak) for states that opened up the most to have the lightest caseloads. The states that had the big summer flare-ups in the so-called “Sunbelt second wave”—Arizona, California, Florida and Texas—are by no means the most opened up, politicized headlines notwithstanding.
The lesson is not that lockdowns made the spread of Covid-19 worse—although the raw evidence might suggest that—but that lockdowns probably didn’t help, and opening up didn’t hurt. This defies common sense. In theory, the spread of an infectious disease ought to be controllable by quarantine. Evidently not in practice, though we are aware of no researcher who understands why not.
We’re not the only researchers to have discovered this statistical relationship.
www.wsj.com
TrendMacro, my analytics firm, tallied the cumulative number of reported cases of Covid-19 in each state and the District of Columbia as a percentage of population, based on data from state and local health departments aggregated by the Covid Tracking Project. We then compared that with the timing and intensity of the lockdown in each jurisdiction. That is measured not by the mandates put in place by government officials, but rather by observing what people in each jurisdiction actually did, along with their baseline behavior before the lockdowns. This is captured in highly detailed anonymized cellphone tracking data provided by Google and others and tabulated by the University of Maryland’s Transportation Institute into a “Social Distancing Index.”
Measuring from the start of the year to each state’s point of maximum lockdown—which range from April 5 to April 18—it turns out that lockdowns correlated with a greater spread of the virus. States with longer, stricter lockdowns also had larger Covid outbreaks. The five places with the harshest lockdowns—the District of Columbia, New York, Michigan, New Jersey and Massachusetts—had the heaviest caseloads.
Confirming the first experiment, there was a tendency (though fairly weak) for states that opened up the most to have the lightest caseloads. The states that had the big summer flare-ups in the so-called “Sunbelt second wave”—Arizona, California, Florida and Texas—are by no means the most opened up, politicized headlines notwithstanding.
The lesson is not that lockdowns made the spread of Covid-19 worse—although the raw evidence might suggest that—but that lockdowns probably didn’t help, and opening up didn’t hurt. This defies common sense. In theory, the spread of an infectious disease ought to be controllable by quarantine. Evidently not in practice, though we are aware of no researcher who understands why not.
We’re not the only researchers to have discovered this statistical relationship.
Opinion | The Failed Experiment of Covid Lockdowns
New data suggest that social distancing and reopening haven’t determined the spread.
www.wsj.com
JumboJack
SILVER ELITE
Peru.This is for @dad4 and others. Science and data. GraceT posted about this in the WSJ earlier.
TrendMacro, my analytics firm, tallied the cumulative number of reported cases of Covid-19 in each state and the District of Columbia as a percentage of population, based on data from state and local health departments aggregated by the Covid Tracking Project. We then compared that with the timing and intensity of the lockdown in each jurisdiction. That is measured not by the mandates put in place by government officials, but rather by observing what people in each jurisdiction actually did, along with their baseline behavior before the lockdowns. This is captured in highly detailed anonymized cellphone tracking data provided by Google and others and tabulated by the University of Maryland’s Transportation Institute into a “Social Distancing Index.”
Measuring from the start of the year to each state’s point of maximum lockdown—which range from April 5 to April 18—it turns out that lockdowns correlated with a greater spread of the virus. States with longer, stricter lockdowns also had larger Covid outbreaks. The five places with the harshest lockdowns—the District of Columbia, New York, Michigan, New Jersey and Massachusetts—had the heaviest caseloads.
Confirming the first experiment, there was a tendency (though fairly weak) for states that opened up the most to have the lightest caseloads. The states that had the big summer flare-ups in the so-called “Sunbelt second wave”—Arizona, California, Florida and Texas—are by no means the most opened up, politicized headlines notwithstanding.
The lesson is not that lockdowns made the spread of Covid-19 worse—although the raw evidence might suggest that—but that lockdowns probably didn’t help, and opening up didn’t hurt. This defies common sense. In theory, the spread of an infectious disease ought to be controllable by quarantine. Evidently not in practice, though we are aware of no researcher who understands why not.
We’re not the only researchers to have discovered this statistical relationship.
Opinion | The Failed Experiment of Covid Lockdowns
New data suggest that social distancing and reopening haven’t determined the spread.
You must not be a stats guy.This is for @dad4 and others. Science and data. GraceT posted about this in the WSJ earlier.
TrendMacro, my analytics firm, tallied the cumulative number of reported cases of Covid-19 in each state and the District of Columbia as a percentage of population, based on data from state and local health departments aggregated by the Covid Tracking Project. We then compared that with the timing and intensity of the lockdown in each jurisdiction. That is measured not by the mandates put in place by government officials, but rather by observing what people in each jurisdiction actually did, along with their baseline behavior before the lockdowns. This is captured in highly detailed anonymized cellphone tracking data provided by Google and others and tabulated by the University of Maryland’s Transportation Institute into a “Social Distancing Index.”
Measuring from the start of the year to each state’s point of maximum lockdown—which range from April 5 to April 18—it turns out that lockdowns correlated with a greater spread of the virus. States with longer, stricter lockdowns also had larger Covid outbreaks. The five places with the harshest lockdowns—the District of Columbia, New York, Michigan, New Jersey and Massachusetts—had the heaviest caseloads.
Confirming the first experiment, there was a tendency (though fairly weak) for states that opened up the most to have the lightest caseloads. The states that had the big summer flare-ups in the so-called “Sunbelt second wave”—Arizona, California, Florida and Texas—are by no means the most opened up, politicized headlines notwithstanding.
The lesson is not that lockdowns made the spread of Covid-19 worse—although the raw evidence might suggest that—but that lockdowns probably didn’t help, and opening up didn’t hurt. This defies common sense. In theory, the spread of an infectious disease ought to be controllable by quarantine. Evidently not in practice, though we are aware of no researcher who understands why not.
We’re not the only researchers to have discovered this statistical relationship.
Opinion | The Failed Experiment of Covid Lockdowns
New data suggest that social distancing and reopening haven’t determined the spread.
First, your article blatantly confuses correlation with causation. It refers to NY, NJ, MA, DC and MI to imply that lockdowns cause outbreaks. It seems more likely that the states with the worst March outbreaks adopted the harshest April lowdowns.
Second, the claim that CA had the biggest summer flare up is only valid if you ignore population size. What kind of analyst doesn’t immediately correct for population size before saying anything?
What your stats prove is that a significant portion of the variance is caused by something other than date of opening. Well, yes. We knew that. A significant portion of the variance was caused by re-introduction of sick patients into nursing homes, among other things.
Now remove the March outliers and adjust for population size like a good little mathmatician and redo your homework.
Yeesh. Next you’re going to accuse someone else of being bad with numbers.
thedudeabides
SILVER
Fine but what's your point? It's a fairly meaningless statistic and you know it. It's kind of like saying only 6% of motorcycle fatalities listed blunt trauma as the only cause. If a 100 year old lady with 6 chronic medical conditions walks across a busy intersection and gets struck by a car and dies, blunt force trauma caused by auto-pedestrian accident is the cause of death......period. It doesn't make crossing a busy intersection any less dangerous if only 6% of all auto-ped fatalities have no other causes of death. Covid is real, covid is dangerous, covid doesn't care about politics, covid isn't going away until this entire country takes it seriously.
MSK357
GOLD
No one is saying COVID isnt real. But only 6% had no comorbidities. Thats important. The average i believe was over 2 comorbidities. Thats important. Whats the age of the deaths? Thats important. Why is that important? Because not everyone has comorbidities, expecially many people that need to work to live, as well as kids that need to learn in schools. These stats have meaning. Just because you dont see it, doesn't mean it doesn't exist.
Here's another sciency thing. One little noticed provision that might stop things from opening up is "equity" because science! Those goalposts have come a long way from keeping the hospitals from being flooded.
deadline.com
California Coronavirus Update: Governor Gavin Newsom’s Little-Noticed Reopening Requirement Could Trip L.A. Up
In his presentation on Friday, Gavin Newsom mentioned that the state is considering “equity” as a factor in allowing counties to reopen.
deadline.com
MSK357
GOLD
I wonder what she would have done and what the outcome would have been if she was still in middle school when this pandemic happened. zoom training/social distancing practices and no in class schools with no end in sight after 6 months. Would she still compete physically in soccer or academically in school compared to states that opened earlier? Maybe, maybe not. You have no idea. You are speaking from a different perspective that hasnt had to go through this experience. For a person of color, I would have thought you would speak from a more sympathetic place.
Exactly. These people are dense like that and they don't get it.
MSK357
GOLD
Dense? What percentage of healthy people with no comorbidities to include kids die from COVID out of all the estimated people that supposedly had it that we found out through antibody testing? So why cant kids and healthy people with no comorbidities go back to work and kids go back to school? Why cant healthy kids continue playing? You just dont get it. continue to count cancer, gunshots, and drug overdoses as covid deaths. it helps your worst case scenario numbers and argument. lol.
Oh, this is going to be fun.
Don’t omit that the “scientist”/author is actually a hedge-funder and charlatan.
In 2008, Luskin claimed in an op-ed article that the economy was doing super awesome, and that the Obama campaign was lying about problems in the economy to discredit John McCain. It was intended to be Luskin’s big piece de resistance, and to expose his (in his own mind) mortal enemy as a sham, nobel laureate in economics Paul Krugman. The title of the op ed was “Quit Doling Out That Bad Economy Line.”
Literally one day later, however, Lehman Brothers filed for the largest bankruptcy in US history and, two days after that, the stock markets imploded “thus discrediting every prediction he made in his editorial”, including the part where he said "…anyone who says we're in a recession, or heading into one—especially the worst one since the Great Depression—is making up his own private definition of recession.” Oops.
Foreign Policy named Luskin's prediction in its list of "The 10 Worst Predictions for 2008" He has also been singled out for "some of the worst, money losing commentary of the past few years” and frequently referred to by Brad DeLongas as "the Stupidest Man Alive".
It makes you wonder what a hedge funder, whose livelihood depends on people believing everything is great, might stand to gain by repeatedly claiming that everything is perfectly fine and everyone should just get back to work. Any thoughts? Any real science?
MakeAPlay
DA
As a person of color my daughter is not defined by her sports. She is defined by her mind and her actions. She graduated Magna Cum Laude from a top 20 academic university in 3 and a half years while starting 92 out of 92 games in her career including 2 College Cups, an Elite 8 and a Sweet 16 her freshman year. I am pretty sure that she would have been fine missing 6 months or more of soccer. She missed 7 months of soccer after her knee surgery her sophomore year and still ended her career starting 78 consecutive games. She isn't unique. Lots of young women can perform things that would amaze you if you allow them. My daughter was home for 3 weeks recently and she trained by herself 4 days a week and ran almost every day. Nothing stopping anyone from doing that. My daughter had a meniscus tear that she played with from about U14 to her sophmore year of college so a break in 8th grade would have been great. I am not really concerned with comparing one state to another. California is far superior to any other state in almost any measurable metric. It's why the average home price in San Diego County where I live is over $700k. If all of the California players stayed in state and you added the occasional international player and it would be a tall ask for any team to beat them (See Stanford). Not being able to play in meaningless games against mostly mediocre competition isn't going to handicap a good player.
Good luck to you and your player.
You know what stat has meaning? 190,000 dead people because of C19. We’ll probably be there by tomorrow.
MSK357
GOLD
you must have missed there part where kids cant go into classrooms. Kids whos school districts dont have enough chromebooks. Kids who dont have internet connection so they have been going to the nearest free wifi store thats still open to do get their lessons during these times. its not just about soccer. You are speaking from a place of priviledge. what happened to equal opportunity? I guess you forgot that once you caught up? Or is being held back due to color and class myth?