Why keep arguing, NO FALL SOCCER!

Mosafie said:
Once everything opens up and the weather cools this thing will come back worse than before.
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Not necessarily worse. If infected individuals maintain immunity and we stay at current levels of "openness", we should only see a bump associated with the more favorable conditions for virus transmission due to the change in season. If immunity doesn't "stick" through the fall, yeah, it could end up being worse.
 
Grace T. said:
Or if they require it before you play contact sports, go back to school, go back to work....or regularly come into contac with people like grocery workers or sailors about to get on a boat.
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I guess all those adults playing pick-up games for the past 5 month didn't get the memo....
 
kickingandscreaming said:
Not necessarily worse. If infected individuals maintain immunity and we stay at current levels of "openness", we should only see a bump associated with the more favorable conditions for virus transmission due to the change in season. If immunity doesn't "stick" through the fall, yeah, it could end up being worse.
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That's not how it works. The only reason cases are falling now is because basically everything indoors was closed on July 13. It takes 3 to 4 weeks to see drop in cases which is what we are seeing now.

We still have a delay in testing result and very poor contract tracing ( less than 40%). So any reopening will lead to increase cases in 3 to 4 weeks and cause another closure.

Cases are not falling because of any herd immunity. We are not even close to that.
 
Mosafie said:
That's not how it works. The only reason cases are falling now is because basically everything indoors was closed on July 13. It takes 3 to 4 weeks to see drop in cases which is what we are seeing now.

We still have a delay in testing result and very poor contract tracing ( less than 40%). So any reopening will lead to increase cases in 3 to 4 weeks and cause another closure.

Cases are not falling because of any herd immunity. We are not even close to that.
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FL TX and AZ experienced peaks and fell at roughly the same time as SoCal despite not "everything indoors" being shut down.

Testing and trace is dead if you aren't going to test the asymptomatics like the CDC now suggests. Otherwise you are left with a 14 day quarantine for anyone that comes into contact and people aren't going to do that.

It's not herd immunity...the prisons and now the new HK study have shown there's no such thing. After 20% though everywhere threshold has occurred things begin to slow down. It's a soft barrier that reduces cases to a more manageable place.

And yes we see now from Italy, Spain, the Neatherlands and Germany that any reopening before you get to that 20% will cause an acceleration. The decision we have to make now is, if we will be dealing with this for years, what we do about it. But if the HK study is right lockdown until vaccine isn't an option and neither is just let everyone get it and get herd immunity.
 
Mosafie said:
That's not how it works. The only reason cases are falling now is because basically everything indoors was closed on July 13. It takes 3 to 4 weeks to see drop in cases which is what we are seeing now.

We still have a delay in testing result and very poor contract tracing ( less than 40%). So any reopening will lead to increase cases in 3 to 4 weeks and cause another closure.

Cases are not falling because of any herd immunity. We are not even close to that.
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Did you read the part where I stated, "If infected individuals maintain immunity and we stay at current levels of "openness"?

Also, this is a good read on herd immunity.
www.nytimes.com

What if ‘Herd Immunity’ Is Closer Than Scientists Thought? (Published 2020)

In what may be the world’s most important math puzzle, researchers are trying to figure out how many people in a community must be immune before the coronavirus fades.
www.nytimes.com www.nytimes.com
 
Grace T. said:
FL TX and AZ experienced peaks and fell at roughly the same time as SoCal despite not "everything indoors" being shut down.

Testing and trace is dead if you aren't going to test the asymptomatics like the CDC now suggests. Otherwise you are left with a 14 day quarantine for anyone that comes into contact and people aren't going to do that.

It's not herd immunity...the prisons and now the new HK study have shown there's no such thing. After 20% though everywhere threshold has occurred things begin to slow down. It's a soft barrier that reduces cases to a more manageable place.

And yes we see now from Italy, Spain, the Neatherlands and Germany that any reopening before you get to that 20% will cause an acceleration. The decision we have to make now is, if we will be dealing with this for years, what we do about it. But if the HK study is right lockdown until vaccine isn't an option and neither is just let everyone get it and get herd immunity.
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FL and AZ both rushed up to and past 2.7% confirmed infections. (~27% infected) That's well over your 20% line.

San Diego is in decline with 1.1%. (~11% infected.) That's far under your 20% line. Similar story in WA, OR, NM, CO, SF.

Seems closing bars and wearing masks may have had an impact. It isn't always 20%. Places with good masks and distance are hitting a barrier at about 10%. Places without those habits are hitting a barrier at about 25-30%.
 
The Outlaw said:
The orange curtain? While you're busy shaking, Chicken Little, why don't you ask yourself why Obama bought a $12M mansion on an island, where the highest point of the city is 310' above sea level, if global warming isn't being built up for an agenda? Nobody is asking for a media blackout on the virus or anything else. We just long for the days when news was reported instead of opinions.
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Stay on topic please! Dominic's going to kick you out of here. Going back to mute now!
 
First article I've seen that discusses Covid-19 transmission via youth soccer. Not endorsing it, I still think soccer is a relatively low risk sport and can be made even lower risk by changing the game a bit. From Danbury, CT mayor. Small spike, 200 people (not all from soccer), but it seems they are shutting fields back down.

www.nbcconnecticut.com

Danbury Mayor Urging Residents to Take Coronavirus Alert Seriously; Discusses Risk, Spike in Youth Soccer

“Well, we had the first case in the state and now we have the first surge in the state,” said Danbury Mayor Mark Boughton, after a day jam-packed with free testing in his city for residents with or without symptoms. Boughton said he, along with other city and state officials, are urging people...
www.nbcconnecticut.com www.nbcconnecticut.com
 
dad4 said:
FL and AZ both rushed up to and past 2.7% confirmed infections. (~27% infected) That's well over your 20% line.

San Diego is in decline with 1.1%. (~11% infected.) That's far under your 20% line. Similar story in WA, OR, NM, CO, SF.

Seems closing bars and wearing masks may have had an impact. It isn't always 20%. Places with good masks and distance are hitting a barrier at about 10%. Places without those habits are hitting a barrier at about 25-30%.
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Maybe...it's an interesting idea.

20% isn't a magic fixed number. The way to think about it is like molasses. The more over 10% you go the thicker it becomes and the harder things are take off again. Throw people in a prison together or on a boat with a symptomatic superspreader and yes things will accelerate like crazy notwithstanding the stickiness.

It's possible that government policies might help deflect that point downward earlier. You know I'm skeptical about how much masks actually do (they aren't good enough to stop heavy loads even in hospitals and they don't help too much in already low risk situations such as outside...there is a sweet spot in between where they probably do help like in an elevator, bus or for grocery workers). Much more important I think is your point about distancing and how people react to news things are getting worse. But it doesn't tell us or affect how thick the molasses is. So in places in Spain and Italy where the molasses didn't get too thick, they are having subsequent waves in those area...in paces like Madrid and Lombardy where the molasses is thicker there's less of a resurgence.

Apparently according to the HK study (if it's right and not an outlier) this barrier will also get less thick with time. We don't know how quickly it decays. But they are 2 different concept. 1 is an inflection point which probably is impacted by government policy (we see that with the Australian lockdown...but what's Australia going to do now....do that a 3rd time?). The 2nd is a stickiness which slows the rate of infection which may also decay over time.
 
The Outlaw said:
The orange curtain? While you're busy shaking, Chicken Little, why don't you ask yourself why Obama bought a $12M mansion on an island, where the highest point of the city is 310' above sea level, if global warming isn't being built up for an agenda? Nobody is asking for a media blackout on the virus or anything else. We just long for the days when news was reported instead of opinions.
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Another week off Outlaw.
 
Giesbock said:
Yup just fine and thanks for asking. Jumped on @anon knowing he’d come back with a big f.u. It’s a pattern with him.

Jose linking a world wide pandemic to the US election is a bridge too far.
This just veers so far off youth soccer for me not to call both out.

Who here isnt frustrates and anxious to see our kids mixing it up on the pitch?

But goodness sake, shrugging off scientific and doctor’s advice in favor of a me first mindset is bad news for so many Americans.
I care not a whit what someone like @Anonymous has to say to me or about me. I’m glad to be on the opposite side of this.
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thelonggame said:
I got family in AZ that' can't go outside because the idiots in government don't think it's real. THere were 1,000 new cases yesterday. The butt fucks who go there and bring it back can give a shit about anyone else but themselves, unless they plan to quarantine for 7 days and not pass it on to anyone else. This isn't CNN reporting this, this is fucking reality. We will never get back to playing soccer until fucking idiots stop finding ways to expose more people.
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the good news is that 99.6% of the people will recover. this virus isn't going anywhere most people will get it eventually and most will live. stay healthy
 
Ellejustus said:
Another 7 day band. Follow the rules bro. Can you grasp that?
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I find some of your stories amusing .

And you frequently post that you always follow the rules and for others to follow the rules also .

But in another recent thread relating to the Heartbreakers Cup you said some rules are made to be
broken ,

So in the end you seem to be advocating follow the rules you like but no need to follow the rules you disagree with .

Just curious . Am I missing something .
 
Jose has returned said:
the good news is that 99.6% of the people will recover. this virus isn't going anywhere most people will get it eventually and most will live. stay healthy
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Good news that people didn't die, bad news is that if people get it they suffer big time. Does this enter your thinking process in any way? Do you know anyone who has had symptoms? People I know who have had it felt like they were going to die, and they weren't ventilated or anything. The best thing to do is just not get it.
 
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