U15/05 Girls Academy/ECNL WNT Pool

[MakeAPlay]

I agree that neither league is an inherently better development environment. ECNL hyped up the high school option after DA emerged to give itself a competitive advantage. DA hyped up it’s own system. Both environments might or might not be superior development environments based on a number or other outside factors (coaching, individual player motivation, what the kid does outside of club, etc, etc).
If a kid is so obviously head and shoulders above everyone else, YNT will pick them out. They’re not going to turn them away because they play ECNL.
If a kid is a top player, very comparable to many other top players, Timmy is right! Playing in the DA is going to give them a big advantage for YNT selection in the short term both because they are more easily seen by US Soccer scouts at DA games and events and because US soccer has invested in a system that they want to succeed.
YNT always does and will continue to miss some outstanding players, and some will emerge on the college scene and show up in the YNT pool later. But, I think what you will continue to see happen over the next few years is that the powerhouse colleges will primarily keep selecting players from YNT for their starting rosters. The reason for this is not because the US soccer DA machine is keeping other players out - it’s because there are a lot of really great players out there and most of them are interchangeable. If the YNT/WNT pool has a ton of turnover at college age level because all these exceptional ECNL players got the shaft when they were younger, I’ll eat my words.

Leagues don't develop players. Coaches develop players. The letters on one's jersey don't matter. The reason that so many players emerge in college and so many disappear is because in an open league (NCAA D1 soccer) the coaches jobs are dependant upon them putting together the best team to win over a short (4 month ) season. In that kind of a scenario the kids that get it done play and the ones that aren't able sit on the bench. At the top schools (Stanford, UCLA, North Carolina, Virginia, Florida State, Penn State) there are plenty of players with YNT experience that sit the bench......

 

[MakeAPlay]

Unfortunately, you will be eating your words.

I agree.

 

[Soccerhelper]

Leagues don't develop players. Coaches develop players. The letters on one's jersey don't matter. The reason that so many players emerge in college and so many disappear is because in an open league (NCAA D1 soccer) the coaches jobs are dependant upon them putting together the best team to win over a short (4 month ) season. In that kind of a scenario the kids that get it done play and the ones that aren't able sit on the bench. At the top schools (Stanford, UCLA, North Carolina, Virginia, Florida State, Penn State) there are plenty of players with YNT experience that sit the bench......

Nothing wrong with that either for some kids. Their happy to be at that school and I'm happy for them as well

 

[Soccerfan2]

Leagues don't develop players. Coaches develop players. The letters on one's jersey don't matter. The reason that so many players emerge in college and so many disappear is because in an open league (NCAA D1 soccer) the coaches jobs are dependant upon them putting together the best team to win over a short (4 month ) season. In that kind of a scenario the kids that get it done play and the ones that aren't able sit on the bench. At the top schools (Stanford, UCLA, North Carolina, Virginia, Florida State, Penn State) there are plenty of players with YNT experience that sit the bench......

I agree with all that. But that’s not the point I was making. How many of the impact players at those schools have YNT experience prior to coming into college? Maybe someone with more time than me today can count.

 

[MakeAPlay]

I agree with all that. But that’s not the point I was making. How many of the impact players at those schools have YNT experience prior to coming into college? Maybe someone with more time than me today can count.

28 out 32 players on my daughter's college roster from the 2019 have either YNT or Full National team experience so that isn't a very predictive stat. The numbers are similar for the other schools that I mentioned. YNT is just a label that means very little when everyone around you has the same label. Only 15 players on my kid's team PLAYED in at least half the games and only 12 started half the games or more. Only 4 players started every game. The cream rises to the top in the competitive cauldron of college soccer. The US YNT's don't actually get real competition until the make it to the U20 or U17 WWC and we have done exceptionally bad at those since our last good teams in 2012.

 

[LASTMAN14]

The US YNT's don't actually get real competition until the make it to the U20 or U17 WWC and we have done exceptionally bad at those since our last good teams in 2012.

This is the time and age where a lot has to be said about the roster selections on those two groups. I hope LH is the one to get things headed in the right direction for the U20's.

 

[MakeAPlay]

Nothing wrong with that either for some kids. Their happy to be at that school and I'm happy for them as well

I didn't say that there was a problem. I just pointed out that at the top schools it is more unique to have a player that isn't a former YNT player than one that is. I will say out of the 4 freshman that played the most on her team this season, 2 are YNT players, 1 plays for the full Australian WNT and their YNT and the other (who played the 2nd most minutes FYI) had no YNT experience at all.

It isn't about the resume it's about the player.

 

[Soccerfan2]

28 out 32 players on my daughter's college roster from the 2019 have either YNT or Full National team experience so that isn't a very predictive stat. The numbers are similar for the other schools that I mentioned. YNT is just a label that means very little when everyone around you has the same label. Only 15 players on my kid's team PLAYED in at least half the games and only 12 started half the games or more. Only 4 players started every game. The cream rises to the top in the competitive cauldron of college soccer. The US YNT's don't actually get real competition until the make it to the U20 or U17 WWC and we have done exceptionally bad at those since our last good teams in 2012.

28 of 32. That indicates that obviously there is agreement between colleges and YNT about who the top players are. If there wasn’t, top college rosters would not be made up of mostly YNT players. That is my point.

That does NOT mean just because you have YNT experience you are going to be on or a starter on a top team - I agree with you completely there. One reason YNT players sit the bench in college is because there are more YNT roster spots throughout all the camps and birth years than there are starting spots on top college rosters. Another reason is that players don’t develop on a straight line trajectory - many factors influence development (and commitment) over time.

 

[MakeAPlay]

28 of 32. That indicates that obviously there is agreement between colleges and YNT about who the top players are. If there wasn’t, top college rosters would not be made up of mostly YNT players. That is my point.

That does NOT mean just because you have YNT experience you are going to be on or a starter on a top team - I agree with you completely there. One reason YNT players sit the bench in college is because there are more YNT roster spots throughout all the camps and birth years than there are starting spots on top college rosters. Another reason is that players don’t develop on a straight line trajectory - many factors influence development (and commitment) over time.

A lot of the recruitment of YNT players has to do with trusting other people's opinions. Not to mention that those YNT players tend to congregate on the same teams (Or US Soccer favors certain teams/clubs) and great teams can hide players actual deficiencies (think Jamarcus Russell at LSU). Once you are in fall camp your resume doesn't matter. Those that can get the job done will play whether that number is 11 or 20. Those that have been relying on their resume either improve, sit the bench or transfer.

 

[timmyh]

I agree with you guys on a lot of points being made regarding things like the importance of coaching and other factors, but I think you're missing the one thing that is a fundamental change.

All other things being equal, the kid that's playing 10 months a year in the more intensive environment is going to end up being a better player than the kid playing in a slightly less intensive environment and also swapping 1/3 of that time for a much lesser environment. That doesn't mean there won't be exceptions, but the DA is simply going to produce players that have more fully maximized their potential.

I really don't see how that's arguable. Sure people may choose not to do the more intensive program for valid reasons (avoid burnout, have other interests, play with other teams or teammates, etc), but all of those reasons come with a tradeoff that is pretty specifically detrimental to fully realizing soccer potential.

If there are two identical twin gymnasts who are both equally world class at age 14, the gymnast who trains 4 hours a day through high school is likely going to be better than her identical twin who practices 3 hours a day (with one of those hours being spent tumbling with lesser skilled friends just for fun). It is common sense. Now, perhaps the first one is missing out on things that are important that aren't worth the sacrifice to the second one (or are simply deemed to be critical to a balanced or more fun lifestyle), but each has their own pathway and choices and priorities. If the only goal is to make the Olympic gymnastic team, obviously the first one is who you'd put your money on to succeed.

Many people here seem to be arguing that the extra hour of not practicing is going to somehow make the 2nd twin a better gymnast than her sister or that it just doesn't matter or that Olympic coaches must be biased to invest their energy and time into the first sister instead of both. Of course it matters. Of course the first twin is going to be better than the second at gymnastics. And of course that sacrifice may or may not be worthwhile to the things that are truly important.

 

[timmyh]

I agree with you guys on a lot of points being made regarding things like the importance of coaching and other factors, but I think you're missing the one thing that is a fundamental change.

All other things being equal, the kid that's playing 10 months a year in the more intensive environment is going to end up being a better player than the kid playing in a slightly less intensive environment and also swapping 1/3 of that time for a much lesser environment. That doesn't mean there won't be exceptions, but the DA is simply going to produce players that have more fully maximized their potential.

I really don't see how that's arguable. Sure people may choose not to do the more intensive program for valid reasons (avoid burnout, have other interests, play with other teams or teammates, etc), but all of those reasons come with a tradeoff that is pretty specifically detrimental to fully realizing soccer potential.

If there are two identical twin gymnasts who are both equally world class at age 14, the gymnast who trains 4 hours a day through high school is likely going to be better than her identical twin who practices 3 hours a day (with one of those hours being spent tumbling with lesser skilled friends just for fun). It is common sense. Now, perhaps the first one is missing out on things that are important that aren't worth the sacrifice to the second one (or are simply deemed to be critical to a balanced or more fun lifestyle), but each has their own pathway and choices and priorities. If the only goal is to make the Olympic gymnastic team or be an impact gymnast at the college level, obviously the first one is who you'd put your money on to succeed.

Many people here seem to be arguing that the extra hour of not practicing is going to somehow make the 2nd twin a better gymnast than her sister or that it just doesn't matter or that Olympic coaches must be biased to invest their energy and time into the first sister instead of both. Of course it matters. Of course the first twin is going to be better than the second at gymnastics. And of course that sacrifice may or may not be worthwhile to the things that are truly important.

fixed one part to be more relevant

 

[Soccerfan2]

A lot of the recruitment of YNT players has to do with trusting other people's opinions. Not to mention that those YNT players tend to congregate on the same teams (Or US Soccer favors certain teams/clubs) and great teams can hide players actual deficiencies (think Jamarcus Russell at LSU). Once you are in fall camp your resume doesn't matter. Those that can get the job done will play whether that number is 11 or 20. Those that have been relying on their resume either improve, sit the bench or transfer.

It seems to me that players that emerge at the very highest level in college that were never identified prior are the small exception rather than the rule. That means the YNT selection process is generally a reliable predictor. Your own data from UCLA supports this point. I don’t see the ECNL/DA split changing this dynamic despite the perception that YNT is unreasonably biased to DA. I do think YNT is DA biased, but I don’t think it matters because it is not so biased that it ignores the very top players that really differentiate themselves.

Timmy - I don’t necessarily disagree with your logic. But, my daughter trained just as much prior to DA as she does now playing DA. Also, many of her ECNL peers work in private training or on their own enough to compensate for the fewer team training days. I’m not sure they are developing less.

 

[Dubs]

A lot of the recruitment of YNT players has to do with trusting other people's opinions. Not to mention that those YNT players tend to congregate on the same teams (Or US Soccer favors certain teams/clubs) and great teams can hide players actual deficiencies (think Jamarcus Russell at LSU). Once you are in fall camp your resume doesn't matter. Those that can get the job done will play whether that number is 11 or 20. Those that have been relying on their resume either improve, sit the bench or transfer.

Stop making so much sense MAP!

 

[Soccerhelper]

It seems to me that players that emerge at the very highest level in college that were never identified prior are the small exception rather than the rule. That means the YNT selection process is generally a reliable predictor. Your own data from UCLA supports this point. I don’t see the ECNL/DA split changing this dynamic despite the perception that YNT is unreasonably biased to DA. I do think YNT is DA biased, but I don’t think it matters because it is not so biased that it ignores the very top players that really differentiate themselves.

Timmy - I don’t necessarily disagree with your logic. But, my daughter trained just as much prior to DA as she does now playing DA. Also, many of her ECNL peers work in private training or on their own enough to compensate for the fewer team training days. I’m not sure they are developing less.

The old ODP WAY of getting the Nations Top 100 from the four regions, yes, the cream will be there and the top schools will get their first choice sips of that cream. This is a new, DA Way to make the cream rise to the top without the same ingredients. I personally think it taste a little sour and bitter but that's just my whinny self being me. We shall all see someday. To all those who have fallen from Grace..... That is a complete lie. No such thing.

 

[Kicker4Life]

The old ODP WAY of getting the Nations Top 100 from the four regions, yes, the cream will be there and the top schools will get their first choice sips of that cream. This is a new, DA Way to make the cream rise to the top without the same ingredients. I personally think it taste a little sour and bitter but that's just my whinny self being me. We shall all see someday. To all those who have fallen from Grace..... That is a complete lie. No such thing.

You don’t think the ODP selection was bias? You must be joking!

 

[oh canada]

I agree with you guys on a lot of points being made regarding things like the importance of coaching and other factors, but I think you're missing the one thing that is a fundamental change.

All other things being equal, the kid that's playing 10 months a year in the more intensive environment is going to end up being a better player than the kid playing in a slightly less intensive environment and also swapping 1/3 of that time for a much lesser environment. That doesn't mean there won't be exceptions, but the DA is simply going to produce players that have more fully maximized their potential.

I really don't see how that's arguable. Sure people may choose not to do the more intensive program for valid reasons (avoid burnout, have other interests, play with other teams or teammates, etc), but all of those reasons come with a tradeoff that is pretty specifically detrimental to fully realizing soccer potential.

If there are two identical twin gymnasts who are both equally world class at age 14, the gymnast who trains 4 hours a day through high school is likely going to be better than her identical twin who practices 3 hours a day (with one of those hours being spent tumbling with lesser skilled friends just for fun). It is common sense. Now, perhaps the first one is missing out on things that are important that aren't worth the sacrifice to the second one (or are simply deemed to be critical to a balanced or more fun lifestyle), but each has their own pathway and choices and priorities. If the only goal is to make the Olympic gymnastic team, obviously the first one is who you'd put your money on to succeed.

Many people here seem to be arguing that the extra hour of not practicing is going to somehow make the 2nd twin a better gymnast than her sister or that it just doesn't matter or that Olympic coaches must be biased to invest their energy and time into the first sister instead of both. Of course it matters. Of course the first twin is going to be better than the second at gymnastics. And of course that sacrifice may or may not be worthwhile to the things that are truly important.

Enjoying the debate. With respect, above is flawed logic because performance increases are not linear over time. Yes, at the young ages there is a good correlation between time spent training and an increase in performance. But as time goes on, the law of diminishing returns kicks in. Deliberate practice hours predict 26% of the skill variation in games such as chess, 21% for music, and 18% for sports.

Gladwell's 10,000-hour theory sold a lot of books (and a lot of private training sessions), but is complete garbage in reality.

The Great Practice Myth: Debunking the 10,000 Hour Rule

The 10,000 Hour Rule: It's a popular rule of thumb, but it isn't based on solid science. Here are practical, research-backed tips on practice.

www.6seconds.org

Why Malcolm Gladwell's 10,000 Hour Rule Doesn't Actually Hold Up

Practice doesn't necessarily make perfect.

money.com

 

[Dubs]

Why is there the assumption that DA has more training than ECNL? It depends on the club/team! Nobody should assume that playing ECNL means less of anything. I feel like I'm repeating myself, but development is solely in the hands of the club and NOT US Soccer, the DA or ECNL for that matter. These are just platforms... nothing more. One thing we DO know is that there is clear and outright bias in terms of picking DA players for YNT. It has been said by US Soccer themselves.

 

[timmyh]

Enjoying the debate. With respect, above is flawed logic because performance increases are not linear over time. Yes, at the young ages there is a good correlation between time spent training and an increase in performance. But as time goes on, the law of diminishing returns kicks in. Deliberate practice hours predict 26% of the skill variation in games such as chess, 21% for music, and 18% for sports.

Gladwell's 10,000-hour theory sold a lot of books (and a lot of private training sessions), but is complete garbage in reality.

The Great Practice Myth: Debunking the 10,000 Hour Rule

The 10,000 Hour Rule: It's a popular rule of thumb, but it isn't based on solid science. Here are practical, research-backed tips on practice.

www.6seconds.org

Why Malcolm Gladwell's 10,000 Hour Rule Doesn't Actually Hold Up

Practice doesn't necessarily make perfect.

money.com

Great post. Very interesting.
If soccer is in the 18% category, then perhaps that possibly supports a notion that further deliberate practice can make the sort of minor differences we are talking about when sorting between the top 1% of players in an age group and determining who is most likely to continue to separate themselves. Or, at least that appears to be US Soccer's belief.

 

[timmyh]

Why is there the assumption that DA has more training than ECNL? It depends on the club/team! Nobody should assume that playing ECNL means less of anything. I feel like I'm repeating myself, but development is solely in the hands of the club and NOT US Soccer, the DA or ECNL for that matter. These are just platforms... nothing more. One thing we DO know is that there is clear and outright bias in terms of picking DA players for YNT. It has been said by US Soccer themselves.

Seems true with every DA/ECNL club I am aware of. Can you share which ECNL clubs train more than 3 days a week and don't drastically scale down for several months during HS season?

 

[MakeAPlay]

It seems to me that players that emerge at the very highest level in college that were never identified prior are the small exception rather than the rule. That means the YNT selection process is generally a reliable predictor. Your own data from UCLA supports this point. I don’t see the ECNL/DA split changing this dynamic despite the perception that YNT is unreasonably biased to DA. I do think YNT is DA biased, but I don’t think it matters because it is not so biased that it ignores the very top players that really differentiate themselves.

Timmy - I don’t necessarily disagree with your logic. But, my daughter trained just as much prior to DA as she does now playing DA. Also, many of her ECNL peers work in private training or on their own enough to compensate for the fewer team training days. I’m not sure they are developing less.

I can think of at least 3 players that were not YNT players that went to UCLA and beat out YNT players and one who was the 2nd pick in the NWSL draft. 2 of those players have been called into the YNT and full WNT since then but they weren't invited prior to their time in college.

Yes the YNT selection is generally reliable but only in the sense that you are going to know that some of the players are going to be great, some are going to be average and some are going to disappear. It's completely up to the player.

Good luck to you and your player.

 

[Kicker4Life]

Doesn’t it also depend on who is doing the picking? As I alluded to earlier there is an entirely new staff that was hired within the last 3 months. I’m sure there is some degree of preference towards DA players but I believe that is inherent in structure and resource allocation.