@Avanti @MarkM @oh canada
Here are three articles that I've read that support the argument that success at a young age is not a good predictor of success as an adult. These are soccer specific articles backed by research, not simply the biased generalities of a soccer dad.
https://thecoachingconversation.com/early-success-in-sports-future-success/
https://amp.theatlantic.com/amp/article/561707/?__twitter_impression=true
https://changingthegameproject.com/...t-selection-instead-of-talent-identification/
I know that it may seem very counter intuitive to learn that children who are absolute stars, dominating their peers, exhibiting rare talent and ability at the age of 10 are actually
not significantly statistically more likely to achieve adult success than their average peers, but this is the truth by numbers. Think of the lottery analogy I used earlier: If you do not play the lotto, you have zero chance of winning. A kid who doesn't play soccer has zero shot at playing pro or making a National Team. If you do play the lotto, and buy just one ticket, your chances are infinitely better than the one who did not purchase a number, right? This is true... but those odds are still so ridiculous (one in 300 million) that they might as well be zero. Think of the one ticket holder as being the average youth club player. Now go out and buy 100 tickets. You are now 100 times more likely to win than the 1 ticket holder... but guess what your odds are now??? ONE IN THREE MILLION. Think of the 100 ticket holder as that U12 DA star who has NT scouts checking them out. Are his/her chances better than the others? Why sure. But if you look at everything that the parents and the kids and the clubs are investing in this one in three million shot, you suddenly understand what a bad investment it is. My original point in responding to the OP is that he clearly got caught up in "The Dream." And that sucks because he put a whole lot of emotional and financial investment in his kid's youth soccer career - largely because the coaches and the scouts and the pipe dream that everyone sells about success in youth sports is really just a mirage for the more than hundreds of thousands of kids (maybe even millions globally) who are given labels like "elite" at 10 - 12 years of age. And what the advocates of "separating the wheat from the chaff" at 12-13 are missing is that the whole activity of doing so is insanely inefficient! To the point that even those professionals who get paid to do it are really not any better at picking the next superstar as they are at getting hit by lighting. Sure, if you stand in enough thunderstorms it might happen... but not because it's a good process. It's just pure numbers. Sure the European clubs eventually groom some of their 12 year old prodigies into pros, but that could be simple confirmation bias at work. It doesn't mean that kids who got overlooked at 12 could not have achieved the same or better by age 23, but they weren't in the system. They didn't get the same opportunities.
HOWEVER, just like another poster said, "So you're saying there's a chance??" Haha! Yes, there is. The brilliance of the line "So you're saying there's a chance?" from "Dumb and Dumber" (let that sink in, soccer parents) is that it simultaneously speaks to the delusion of all of us soccer parents so blinded by our love of our children and visions of glory that we can't embrace reality... but on the flip side, also the sort of optimism and self-confidence that is actually necessary to achieve greatness! I mean, if you don't believe in yourself, no one else ever will, so you have to start somewhere! Why not buy that lotto ticket if you can? In the end, I agree with some of what both sides are saying. If your goal is to be a great adult player, being a great 12 year old player is definitely more
fulfilling than being a slightly above average 12 year old player and it won't hurt your chances... but it is not a prerequisite for greatness and it certainly doesn't guarantee you anything other than some amazing memories.
And in the end, that should be enough for all parents to want for their kids.