There are perhaps two dozen players every year (each, male and female) that any coach would recognize as an immediate starter likely to last 4 years. Then there are a couple hundred that are hard to tell apart, that are stars in their club or high school teams, but who the coach thinks will fall into the typical college player mold of bench or red shirt the first 2 years working onto a starting role by Senior year. The coach will look at off-field issues to sort those players out, things like grades, disciplinary issues, and parents (good or bad) to select the last few spots.
You can easily tell if your kid is in the top category - he will be getting emails and phone calls from schools you never heard of before the start of his senior HS year. If you're not - don't take a chance on poisoning the well.