Vaccine

Desert Hound said:
You go silent (as in never once have spoken) on the fact that many states have similar case loads but very different deaths.
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Actually I take that back. Early on when discussing UT and the low deaths despite being open you opined that they didn't drink that much up there. That was during your bars=bad days.

So my apologies.
 
Grace T. said:
Roh roh. This paper says the virus is mutating rapidly and will likely escape antibody responses. In other words it acts like flu, H3N2, not like chicken pox (as Biden/Fauci/Gottlieb had hoped). If correct, it means boosters aren't going to get us out of it: either you have to go to the English approach and have everyone get more broad and rounded natural immunity against all the various proteins, or you are going to have to mandate vaxx boosters in perpetuity (which doesn't seem to be as easy as initially promised since Pfizer some 5 months later still doesn't have a Delta booster let alone the other 3 and let alone the other vaccines which STILL don't have approval)

www.biorxiv.org

Rapid and parallel adaptive mutations in spike S1 drive clade success in SARS-CoV-2

Despite the appearance of variant SARS-CoV-2 viruses with altered receptorbinding or antigenic phenotypes, traditional methods for detecting adaptive evolution from sequence data do not pick up strong signals of positive selection. Here, we present a new method for identifying adaptive evolution...
www.biorxiv.org www.biorxiv.org
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That is not what the paper says.

“The virus is mutating” is in the paper. The rest of the above post is nothing more than Grace speculation.
 
Desert Hound said:
The part you miss and CONSTANTLY refuse to address is the following.

MS and UT have about the same cases. MS is about the highest deaths. UT about the lowest.

CA has similar case loads to a variety of other states. Some have far higher deaths, some are about even, some are much lower.

Etc.

You just look at deaths and go...1+1=states should have locked down more. IE you can do math fine. You seem to not look at and try to analyze data as to why.

MS has the highest obesity in the nation and that generally is in a certain population that is already rather unhealthy. UT doesn't have that issue.

AZ has like CA cases similar to a variety of other states who all have very different deaths. AZ is a retirement state with a large Indian population.

NM a state who followed CA in many aspects and was even stricter in some has case rates similar to CA but far higher deaths. NM also has a large Indian population.

You just look at deaths and say yep it is gov intervention or lack of it that is why deaths are at a certain level. You go silent (as in never once have spoken) on the fact that many states have similar case loads but very different deaths. That should tell you that it is something else at play. Percentage of older people in a state, overall health in a state (or within certain groups), Indian populations, etc. The reason you go silent is because you CANNOT then rely on well they didn't mask, or they didn't social distance.

This is the same thing that has happened in other countries. Serbia has less than half the deaths of Belgium with around the same cases, etc. As you look around you see plenty of countries with similar cases but rather different deaths per million.

As a math guy you like 1+2 = gov solutions work!

You fail to look at the data and say well it appears something (many) seem to drive what is going on.

It is kind of like your mask thing. Despite countries with high compliance vs those with less, we see the waves all hit the countries at roughly the same time and act in similar manners. You cling to masks saying they work. Real world data shows the virus spreads in a similar manner around the world and the waves all happen at roughly the same time.

This also gets back to your fundamental problem in interpreting data. You constant solution(s) are blanket in nature. Long ago we learned who is actually at risk. Your preferred solutions target everyone. You yourself are a perfect example of knowing math and failing to look at data. You are healthy and young and vaxxed and yet you still walk around with a mask. It appears you also do this outside just walking around. You claim surgical masks do the trick. And yet wear n95s. In other words you have not looked at the data and realized you have little to no risk. Your actions show a person who believes you are at a lot higher level of risk.

In other words a lack of understanding the data available.

Which is the same you seem to do with state/country data.
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If we are discussing data, do we agree that the Bangladesh RCT demonstrated that surgical masks reduce covid transmission?

Or do you just want to look at mismatched pairs of states which you selected based on some right wing website?
 
dad4 said:
That is not what the paper says.

“The virus is mutating” is in the paper. The rest of the above post is nothing more than Grace speculation.
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Hey sleepy head. Only 4 hours of sleep? Drinking again? Dad, please get some help. Your 4 kids need you, not the forum.
 
dad4 said:
That is not what the paper says.

“The virus is mutating” is in the paper. The rest of the above post is nothing more than Grace speculation.
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The first sentence is the summary (again reading comprehension). The rest is critical thinking. If you look at the authors going on Twitter right now, they are going down a similar path and even call out h3n2 by name.
 
Desert Hound said:
Not just the English.

Sweden has followed the approach. Denmark just said no more restrictions (health minister said we just need to live with it), Singapore has given up.

You will see more and more countries give up to reality.

It is endemic, it mutates, and we cannot go around restricting daily lives, biz, school, when the reality is those measures will not stop the virus.

There is a new family on the block that moved in 2 yrs ago. We don't like the family, but they are here to stay.
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Pretty sure the English approach is predicated on vaccinations - it would be a good thing if the US followed suit

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Detailed analysis

Covid vaccine: How many people in the UK have been vaccinated so far? - BBC News
 
Desert Hound said:
Not just the English.

Sweden has followed the approach. Denmark just said no more restrictions (health minister said we just need to live with it), Singapore has given up.

You will see more and more countries give up to reality.

It is endemic, it mutates, and we cannot go around restricting daily lives, biz, school, when the reality is those measures will not stop the virus.

There is a new family on the block that moved in 2 yrs ago. We don't like the family, but they are here to stay.
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Here you go for Sweden, again with the vaccinations!

1631981438578.png

Statistics for vaccination against COVID-19 — Public Health Agency of Sweden (folkhalsomyndigheten.se)
 
dad4 said:
If we are discussing data, do we agree that the Bangladesh RCT demonstrated that surgical masks reduce covid transmission?
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There seems to be quite a bit of back and forth on that article. It isn't cut and dry in the least since a lot of other factors were involved. It seems at best they found a slight benefit in certain age groups.

In other words it is nothing to rest your hat on.

Nor is the study to rest ones hat on if they think masks are useless.
 
whatithink said:
Pretty sure the English approach is predicated on vaccinations
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If you think I am arguing AGAINST vaccinations you are incorrect.

They (the countries) are however vaxxed and move on. They are NOT mandating vaccines which is something I am strongly against. The first main reason is we don't have any long term data on potential bad side affects. It is irresponsible to mandate vaxes to everyone when you don't know if there are at risk people who would be better off not taking the vax.

So I am not arguing against the vax.

I am pointing out however that countries are starting to move on. In the case of the US the at risk groups have been vaxxed at a very high rate.

They talk about 80-100 million people not being vaxxed in the US. I would lay money a rather large percentage of those already have antibodies against the virus. Another large percentage are the young who have no risk of covid.
 
I see everybody is up and at it bright and early. Discipline. My wife was telling me, "You can't wrap your head around the idea that some people just like to argue can you". I guess she's right.

Anyway, I'll link this study which is really well done and interesting. Has a bit of something for everybody on the infodemicized "infection better" vs "vaxx better" spectrum. Sorta misses the whole point of a vaccine but whatever. Gist of the study is looking at convalescing C19 patients, sample size ~60. Some get mRNA vaxxed after C19, some don't. The cohort uniformly has a robust acquired immune response as you'd expect. The thing need to know to understand the biology is that there are these structures that form inside the body after antigen stimulation that continue to fine tune the antibody response for at least several months, longer in many cases. Basically, within the structures the relevant antigens (S protein in this case being the main one) that stimulate antibody production are sequestered, and continue to be presented to the antibody producing cells. This causes the antibody producing cells to continue to divide and become hyper-mutable. In this way, cells that have already been selected to produce useful antibodies continue to undergo further selection for even better antibodies that have an improved ability to neutralize the antigen (so in this case, anti-S antibodies that are even more potent at blocking viral cell entry).

The main finding of the study is this unexpected synergism between infection and vaxx. C19 convalescents who get the vaxx show this apparent super stimulation of the antibody fine tuning process, leading to cranking out some really potent neutralizing antibodies that get locked down into B cell memory. The authors speculate, in essence, that vaxxination stimulates a natural evolutionary process within the immune system to an extent that it can now keep pace with the viral evolutionary process throwing out new variants. Perhaps even to the point where there may be immunity that covers even unborn C-viruses that have yet to recombine and emerge from zoonotic resevoirs (provided they still target Ace2 for cell entry; MERS doesn't target Ace2 for instance).

www.nature.com

Naturally enhanced neutralizing breadth against SARS-CoV-2 one year after infection - Nature

Antibodies against SARS-CoV-2 continue to evolve 6 to 12 months after infection in patients who have recovered from COVID-19, increasing in potency and breadth with time.
www.nature.com www.nature.com
 
M
Grace T. said:
Yes, some of the law offices are open but the ones I know that are open are on a "flex" schedule. You can come in if you have an essential purpose, or there's a rotation schedule in place, but I'm not aware of any of the large ones being fully open (mostly just the smaller ones). It's the same with the talent agencies BTW.
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Maybe some places are doing flex schedules because they are good business decisions. If some aspects of remote work were effective and beneficial for the goals of the business, why not incorporate the good?
 
Desert Hound said:
If you think I am arguing AGAINST vaccinations you are incorrect.

They (the countries) are however vaxxed and move on. They are NOT mandating vaccines which is something I am strongly against. The first main reason is we don't have any long term data on potential bad side affects. It is irresponsible to mandate vaxes to everyone when you don't know if there are at risk people who would be better off not taking the vax.

So I am not arguing against the vax.

I am pointing out however that countries are starting to move on. In the case of the US the at risk groups have been vaxxed at a very high rate.

They talk about 80-100 million people not being vaxxed in the US. I would lay money a rather large percentage of those already have antibodies against the virus. Another large percentage are the young who have no risk of covid.
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My point is that a key KPI for them is vaccinations, not testing everyone to see if they've had it or not.
 
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