Vaccine

watfly said:
Pure speculation.

Curious to know what people's experience within their group as to people that were infected? I'd estimate that within my personal community 80-90% were infected at some point (I suspect that other's experience is different). The vast majority of which were never reported and mostly Omicron. No one passed, the few I'm aware of were at least 4 degrees of separation. That is in part why I'm skeptical of 1 mm more deaths. Maybe, but I just don't see any compelling evidence to support that number.

With the exception of full quarantine with no human contact, its clear that virus didn't give a shit about what you did (in terms of infection). Luck played a large role in whether you were infected though. It's clear to me that the vaccine and prior infection was helpful in preventing severe symptoms.
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And a healthy diet ,:)
 
Im just leaving Beverly Hills. Its worse than two months ago. Sad to see so many now living on the streets. I saw one guy yelling at a tree. The small businesses I used to call on in the late 90s are boarded up, Iron Gates or closed down. Grafitti everywhere, trash and humans are pooping on the sidwalk. It smells . Its so sad. My wife and I have a dear dear friend who is now 100% looking to move. She is Persian and went to U of Cal. She is amazing champion for all girls.
 
watfly said:
Pure speculation.

Curious to know what people's experience within their group as to people that were infected? I'd estimate that within my personal community 80-90% were infected at some point (I suspect that other's experience is different). The vast majority of which were never reported and mostly Omicron. No one passed, the few I'm aware of were at least 4 degrees of separation. That is in part why I'm skeptical of 1 mm more deaths. Maybe, but I just don't see any compelling evidence to support that number.

With the exception of full quarantine with no human contact, its clear that virus didn't give a shit about what you did (in terms of infection). Luck played a large role in whether you were infected though. It's clear to me that the vaccine and prior infection was helpful in preventing severe symptoms.
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You really think they're just making it up?

You can look at overall deaths. Up by about 950K in the first two years.

Either coroners across the country have been filing hundreds of thousands of false death certificates, or it was real.
 
dad4 said:
You really think they're just making it up?

You can look at overall deaths. Up by about 950K in the first two years.

Either coroners across the country have been filing hundreds of thousands of false death certificates, or it was real.
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Bro, why do you completely mischaracterize what I say? Is it intentional, reading comprehension or just a huge blindspot to other plausible arguments? Sorry to bust your chops but its really annoying coming from someone that is generally more reasonable.

I can't really be any more clear, I'm not disputing the 1 mm deaths, I'm disputing your claim of 1 mm more deaths without restrictive policies.
 
Grace T. said:
o.k. I'll bite. How'd you come up with the 1M? And it's not just 1M. It's 1M from "half-assed" mask/distancing (yeah I know you mention vaccines, but that's a bit of a cheat...you can't equate lockdowns, which have been shown to not be very effective in various post lockdown studies, or even masks ["masks are better than vaccines" notwithstanding] to something which has been shown to really reduce the IFR, which is vaccination).
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Our vaccination effort has been half-assed. We got about 2/3 of the adult population. Most places bothered actually requiring vaccinations for mass gatherings. Never bothered developing a decent system to verify vaccination status. Never bothered updating the vaccine to adapt to new variants.

Masking was also half-assed. Many people were willing to mask up- if, and only if, someone was right there, telling them to put it on.

Same for moving life outside. LA seemed willing to move dinner parties outside, but only if the indoor space was closed by county order.

So, yeah. Half-assed. People would wear a mask in the grocery store while buying beer for their indoor poker night. Then they complain that the mandate didn’t work.
 
watfly said:
Bro, why do you completely mischaracterize what I say? Is it intentional, reading comprehension or just a huge blindspot to other plausible arguments? Sorry to bust your chops but its really annoying coming from someone that is generally more reasonable.

I can't really be any more clear, I'm not disputing the 1 mm deaths, I'm disputing your claim of 1 mm more deaths without restrictive policies.
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Basically, without the masks, distancing, and shutdowns, the early waves would have been larger, and the late waves would have been smaller. With no behavior changes, the first wave would have hit a 70% infection rate.

Those early waves had a much higher IFR. Therefore, shifting cases from 2021 and 2022 into 2020 would have resulted in far more deaths.
 
dad4 said:
Basically, without the masks, distancing, and shutdowns, the early waves would have been larger, and the late waves would have been smaller. With no behavior changes, the first wave would have hit a 70% infection rate.

Those early waves had a much higher IFR. Therefore, shifting cases from 2021 and 2022 into 2020 would have resulted in far more deaths.
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You are pulling out numbers out of your ass again. Sweden did not hit a 70% infection rate until the winter of 2021, so it's simply not true the first wave would have hit a 70% infection rate. Sweden's 2021 winter death spike was smaller than comparable countries in Europe (so it is true they pulled some deaths forward), but at the same time it's winter 2021 case spike was comparable to the rest of Europe.
 
dad4 said:
Our vaccination effort has been half-assed. We got about 2/3 of the adult population. Most places bothered actually requiring vaccinations for mass gatherings. Never bothered developing a decent system to verify vaccination status. Never bothered updating the vaccine to adapt to new variants.

Masking was also half-assed. Many people were willing to mask up- if, and only if, someone was right there, telling them to put it on.

Same for moving life outside. LA seemed willing to move dinner parties outside, but only if the indoor space was closed by county order.

So, yeah. Half-assed. People would wear a mask in the grocery store while buying beer for their indoor poker night. Then they complain that the mandate didn’t work.
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You and your preaching is causing so much pain. 90% wearing mask in LA, no joke. Everyone I know got the jab and always obey. I did not get the jab but I wore a mask. Also, stop mischaracterizing watty. Watty is so fair and in the middle and admits to that. He looks at both sides before crossing. You don;t stop at all and now have caused severe damage. I want him on my side all the time but I know I can;t always get what I like. You seem very unreasonable, just like some of my teachers from the past.
 
dad4 said:
Basically, without the masks, distancing, and shutdowns, the early waves would have been larger, and the late waves would have been smaller. With no behavior changes, the first wave would have hit a 70% infection rate.

Those early waves had a much higher IFR. Therefore, shifting cases from 2021 and 2022 into 2020 would have resulted in far more deaths.
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1653518576042.png

My apologies to Santa Claus and Unicorns for the comparison.
 
Grace T. said:
You are pulling out numbers out of your ass again. Sweden did not hit a 70% infection rate until the winter of 2021, so it's simply not true the first wave would have hit a 70% infection rate. Sweden's 2021 winter death spike was smaller than comparable countries in Europe (so it is true they pulled some deaths forward), but at the same time it's winter 2021 case spike was comparable to the rest of Europe.
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Nowhere hit 70%, but that is because everywhere experienced a change to behavior.

If you want to imagine a world where the schools are all open, the bars are hopping and the tip jar is full, that's fine.

You are also imagining a world where the first wave hits 70%. This is what happens when R0=3 and people keep behavior constant.

In simple terms, if the tip jar is full, then there are enough people at the bar to spread covid. Conversely, if the bar has lots of empty space, then so does your tip jar. You don't get one without the other.
 
watfly said:
So Sweden didn't hit 70% because people voluntarily changed their behaviors? Fascinating concept. Why didn't any of us think of that? Next time...maybe.
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And with your remark you tore apart what’s left of him. QED as they like to say. You officially win the thread. Hat tip.
 
watfly said:
So Sweden didn't hit 70% because people voluntarily changed their behaviors? Fascinating concept. Why didn't any of us think of that? Next time...maybe.
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The voluntary behavior change only works if you actually change your behavior.

If you declare a voluntary program because you hate masks and refuse to give up Zumba, you will still get 70%.
 
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